Secret to Brentford’s success? Attack at all costs
Matthew Benham, the Brentford owner, is not particularly involved in the day-to-day running of the club. For that, like any good businessman, he has installed people he trusts.
Benham does, however, have certain footballing principles that he wants Brentford to follow. One of those, dating back to a time long before they became a Premier League side, is that the team should be as attack-minded as possible, as often as possible.
This idea is not simply about providing entertainment for the supporters at the Gtech Community Stadium. As ever with Brentford and Benham, it is a philosophy rooted in statistical analysis, rational thinking and a calculation based on an assessment of risk versus reward. Benham, after all, is a professional gambler, and he knows the odds.
An example given to Telegraph Sport: imagine your team are defending a one-goal lead in the final moments of a match. Accepted footballing wisdom, which is so deeply ingrained in the minds of players and supporters, would often lead to a defending player smashing the ball into the stands. If in doubt, as they say, kick it out.
Obviously, putting the ball into row Z reduces the likelihood of conceding a goal in the next few seconds. But it then raises that likelihood of the opposition scoring over the subsequent 120 seconds. The argument here is that it is far better to be on the front foot, even in those last moments, than to altogether abandon your attacking ambition.
‘In minute 90, 1-0 up and down to 10 men, Brentford must attack’
Ian Graham, the former director of research at Liverpool, recounts a meeting with Benham in his book, How to Win the Premier League. “Benham told me that his instructions to the Brentford manager were to attack, regardless of the opponent and the situation in the game,” Graham writes. “In minute one, Brentford must attack. In minute 90, leading one goal to nil, and down to 10 men, Brentford must attack.”
These are long-held principles at Brentford, but they feel especially relevant now, given the performances of Thomas Frank’s team this season. After 15 Premier League matches, Brentford have scored a remarkable 31 goals, a return bettered only by Chelsea. But they have also conceded 28 goals, which means that only Leicester City, Wolves and Southampton have leakier defences.
In other words, based on actual goals scored and conceded, Brentford have the second-best attack in the league and the fourth-worst defence. It is an extraordinary footballing cocktail, and it means that Brentford have become the hottest ticket in town. In their last three home matches, a total of 16 goals have been scored.
Brentford’s owner and his executives have long been challenging the accepted wisdoms of football. In the early years of Benham’s tenure, the club would openly reject the concept that luck “evens itself out” over the course of the season, and the belief that the league table “never lies”.
Brentford were among the first to closely examine the expected goals (xG) model and, such is their belief in it as a measure of underlying performance, they even include their xG league position on their financial statements.
The reward of going for the win outweighs the risk of defeat
Another area in which they apply unorthodox, yet totally rational, thinking is with regard to draws. The argument here is that it is effectively worth removing draws from the equation, as the reward of trying to win three points is worth the risk of losing one. A loss followed by a win (three points) is better than two consecutive draws (two points).
This is the most obvious and basic mathematics, of course, but football is an emotional world and it is not how most in this industry think. For many, the enormous fear of losing a match from a drawing position leads to what Brentford would regard as an irrational and excessive aversion to risk.
To be clear, it is not the case that Brentford have been an ultra-aggressive, gung-ho team since their promotion to the Premier League in 2021. For their first two seasons in the top flight, they knew that a solid structure and defensive rigidity would be required, given the gap in resources between them and the top teams.
Last season, they attempted to return to more of an attacking style of play. Such an offensive, possession-based approach is how Frank and his bosses ultimately want to approach the game. But their injury issues were so severe that the evolution of the team was effectively put on hold.
This year, despite the departure of star striker Ivan Toney, they have kicked ahead with that stylistic development. Their expected goals per game (1.61) and their average possession (47 per cent) are higher than they have been since they were playing free-flowing, attacking football in the Championship, and Frank has now stacked his team with offensive players.
In their victory over Newcastle United last weekend, it could be argued that five of Brentford’s 10 outfielders were attackers. This includes forward Keane Lewis-Potter, who is now operating as an attack-minded full-back.
In Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa, Brentford have two players who consistently damage Premier League defences. Meanwhile, club-record signing Igor Thiago, the replacement for Toney, is now fit after an injury-ravaged start to his career in England.
Part of the motivation is financial. Brentford’s business model is based on buying undervalued players and selling them for a profit, and attackers usually generate larger fees than defenders. A system that allows the attackers to thrive leads to a greater chance of making substantial profits in the transfer market.
Brentford are far from consistent – this season they have been fabulous at home and shaky on the road, for example – but the sense of progress at the club cannot be questioned. They appear to be moving ever closer to their own long-held ideals and principles, and they are all the more exciting because of it.