The strange case of the axing of Erik ten Hag that never happened

The documentary of how Manchester United’s Sir Jim Ratcliffe-led season review ended with Erik ten Hag keeping his job as manager would show a forensic, painstaking process, according to a high-ranking club executive. The non in-house version might differ as it would show Ratcliffe and his advisers being minded to sack the Dutchman before a number of factors ultimately persuaded them that Ten Hag should remain in post.

Ten Hag probably stopped contemplating clearing his United desk after Ratcliffe’s beauty parade of Thomas Tuchel, Kieran McKenna (who signed a lucrative new contract with Ipswich), Mauricio Pochettino, Roberto De Zerbi, Thomas Frank, Graham Potter, Gary O’Neil, Paulo Fonseca and Gareth Southgate as potential replacements ended with them all judged less handsome than the incumbent.

Related: Ten Hag FA Cup final decision key to him staying on at Manchester United

As is his style, Ten Hag played Ratcliffe’s scrutiny of his candidacy with cool, jetting off on holiday the day after United’s FA Cup triumph against Manchester City, uttering nothing publicly.

Yet that Ratcliffe, United’s 27.7% minority owner,even considered sacking Ten Hag was curious given that he met the bottom line demand of every Old Trafford manager: the delivery of glory, silverware and lifelong memories for the fans.

Not all of Ten Hag’s 22 predecessors in United’s 146-year history pulled this off. Two failures were Ole Gunnar Solskjær, who immediately preceded him, and David Moyes, the first of the five permanent managers since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement in May 2013.

Louis van Gaal and José Mourinho are others from this quintet who added honours. The former’s 2016 FA Cup win was the sole success of a two‑season tenure; the latter claimed the 2017 Carabao Cup as well as that season’s Europa League, but no more silverware in his two‑and‑a‑half‑year tenure.

So Ten Hag’s record of cups in both of his seasons is the finest post-Ferguson ratio of any manager. As time passes, his near-axing will become ever more baffling if the trophy count continues to rise.

Ratcliffe’s restructure of the club is a strategic project with the vision of a cultural reset required because of the mess of an organisation Ten Hag walked into. The day after his appointment in April 2022, Ralf Rangnick, United’s interim manager, offered a searing indictment of the task on the new man’s hands. “In medicine you would say this is an operation of the open heart,” the German said, adding: “This is something not one single person as a manager can do. It doesn’t take two or three years to change – this can happen within one year.”

Ten Hag has been in situ for twice as long but the required open heart surgery Rangnick cited only began on Christmas Eve, when Ratcliffe was announced as the incoming new proprietor. This is less than seven months ago and the Ineos billionaire’s two key appointments – the chief executive, Omar Berrada, and sporting director, Dan Ashworth – are yet to begin work due to still being on gardening leave.

Yet despite this instability and having to cope with more than 60 different injuries last season, Ten Hag piloted United to an FA Cup final triumph accomplished via a tactical cuteness derived from his willingness to listen to the suggestion of Jason Wilcox – appointed as United’s technical director in April – to field Bruno Fernandes as a false 9.

Why was Ten Hag under threat, then? For Ratcliffe, Wilcox and Sir Dave Brailsford, the former’s chief lieutenant, considering the removal of the former Ajax manager was a logical part of their uber-forensic ethos.

The hierarchy believed an upgrade could be found after a campaign that ended with United’s lowest ever Premier League finish of eighth. Yet, in the end, the various mitigations – the injuries, last summer’s signings André Onana and Mason Mount not yet settling in, among them, alongside the FA Cup win and Ten Hag’s calmness under pressure – were taken on board and accepted.

There was also an appreciation for Ten Hag’s style of play, which may not feature the percussive patterns of Pep Guardiola’s City, but retains a discernible off-the-cuff style that aims to break open the opposition via fast transitions.

Related: From transfers to Rashford: key issues now facing Manchester United

Kobbie Mainoo’s goal at Wembley is the blueprint for this: Marcus Rashford swept a crossfield diagonal pass to Alejandro Garnacho, which twisted Guardiola’s men around before Aaron Wan-Bissaka’s burst from right back splayed them further. Garnacho rolled the ball to Fernandes whose no-look flick was steered home by Mainoo.

That sequence also showed Ten Hag to be in concert with the United tradition of harnessing youth: Garnacho and Mainoo, both 19 years old, were given their debuts by the 54-year-old and are now established forces, with a market value of around £100m. Ratcliffe et al were impressed by this use of young talent and it was also a factor in Ten Hag’s reprieve.

With a year left on his contract, Ten Hag will now negotiate a fresh deal which, when signed, will seal his elevation in status to being Ratcliffe’s man. When pre-season training resumes it will also bolster his reputation among the players.

A caveat, however: if United’s form and performances are again poor next season if would not be a surprise to see Southgate, if available, lined up to replace Ten Hag. If so, a change in the dugout may actually occur this time.