Arsene Wenger's revolution kicks off with SENSATIONAL three-man defensive plan

Football moves in cycles, in different leagues, through different periods. In the late nineties and early 2000s, three at the back came back into fashion, and wing-backs offered the attacking and defensive solution of making two people do four people’s jobs. In response, tacticians moved to four at the back, three in midfield, three up front, five in midfield in various iterations, and then back again. For many, 3-4-2-1 is the ideal. It gives three at the back against one or two central attackers, with the possibility of one or two midfielders dropping back. Again, the wings are dominated by just one player who must attack, defend, and have 17 lungs to cope. Arsene Wenger has joined the party.

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It is a formation that has been around so many times that even Alex Ferguson tried it, though rarely successfully. Wenger claimed it was the first time he has used it in 20 years, and there is something enduring about the requirements of a back four. Everyone knows their job, and the repetition of defence is often the heart of its success. A telepathic positional understanding guards areas and individual players out of muscle memory as well as intelligence.

You don’t change a defence unless you absolutely need to, then. Antonio Conte was only minded to change to three at the back in order to address various weaknesses in his first eleven and adjust things to focus on the strengths. As well he should have done, but it was not an immediately obvious solution to outside observers.

It is not clear just how many of the problem Wenger and Arsenal are suffering from can be solved with three central defenders. For one, the three in defence yesterday of Rob Holding, Laurent Koscielny and Gabriel have many individual shortcomings compared to Gary Cahill, Cesar Azpilicueta and David Luiz, All of the latter three would be accommodated in the Arsenal eleven, and the reverse cannot said to be true, either. When Shkodran Mustafi and Per Mertesacker return, it is hard to see how either of them have the mobility to include them both. Mertesacker can barely run, for example.

What the move to three at the back might do, though, is address the poverty of wide options. Alex Iwobi is too inexperienced to be relied upon as yet. Danny Welbeck is a busted flush. Theo Walcott threatened to mature, before retiring into mediocrity to further neaten his beard. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has failed to blossom as hoped, but he has the application and energy – when fit – to occupy a berth on the right. He can be supported by the more dangerous Alexis Sanchez ahead of him, who is able to contribute from the wings yet be helpfully placed closer to the middle of the pitch.

On the other side, there’s no need to worry about Kieran Gibbs as Nacho Monreal, a study in durability, can assist. Mesut Ozil is freed from the need to defend, when he can be bothered, because there are extra bodies in midfield behind him, and in central defence. He did very little but score when they played last night, but that is more than he manages in most games. It’s a small sample size, but it must be a relief for Wenger and Arsenal’s fans to see Ozil actually contribute something to the team beyond sparkling potential pre-assists.

The formation also allows Granit Xhaka and whoever partners him to have a different set of options to use. The wing-backs to the edges, Olivier Giroud’s forehead further up, and the talents of Ozil and Sanchez behind his bonce. In addition, both of them can shield the defence or track runners, should they need to.

Three at the back offers plenty of potential aids to Wenger’s oddly stocked squad, but it is no great cure-all (not that Wenger has suggested it is). There are problems that will remain unaddressed by this. Should more wins come, then confidence and optimism will inevitably return, but confidence and optimism briefly shine at Arsenal only for the whole thing to tumble down again.

One of Arsenal’s biggest vulnerabilities was their defensive organisation. A move to three central defenders doesn’t fix that, it merely gives the chance to have five defenders who are confused rather than four. Set pieces will be defended in the same way, you would assume. It won’t arrest Petr Cech’s steady decline, which might require physical and psychological intervention to return him to being one of the world’s best ‘keepers.

It won’t stop Aaron Ramsey’s callowness, Granit Xhaka’s indiscipline or a squad that lacks sufficient quality falling short when it comes up against the best. And it won’t change the outlook of Wenger, where he rewards underperforming players with indulgence, and then fails to pay his very best players the going rate. The key to keeping Ozil and Sanchez would be to actually win trophies, and this requires a significant change in his approach, not just a reshuffle out on the pitch. A reshuffle is needed behind the scenes too.

Arsenal reportedly want a new director to assist with signings, and that might help Arsenal hugely, but that will have to come with a change in attitude when they play their games. It is possible, but hard to see how, that happens with Wenger still giving the team talks, taking training, and standing by the side of the pitch looking bereft. But they finally have a plan B.