The stage is set for the NBA Cup Final on Tuesday night, with the Oklahoma City Thunder set to face the Milwaukee Bucks at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

It's a meeting between one team seen as likely to reach this stage of the tournament and another that would have been seen as likely if not for last season's late collapse. Those fresh memories of Milwaukee's struggles after Doc Rivers took over as head coach -- which continued into the early part of this season -- are why the Bucks are somewhat a surprise in this game. But with 12 wins in their last 15 games since starting 3-8, the Bucks are rolling.

So, that means this should be a compelling game that goes down to the wire right? Well, I wouldn't be so sure about that. The Thunder are 4.5-point favorites at BetMGM, and there is heavy action on them to cover. You can count me among the people expecting the Thunder to run away with this one.

Betting Splits (BetMGM)

Spread: 69% of bets on Thunder / 88% of handle on Thunder

Moneyline: 54% of bets on Bucks / 60% of handle on Bucks

Total: 70% of bets on over / 61% of handle on over

Prince's Pick

Thunder -4.5

Now, you may be wondering, why would anyone ever count out a team as hot as the Bucks are right now. The answer is really simple. They haven't played anybody.

During Milwaukee's recent 12-3 stretch, they beat a grand total of four teams that currently have winning records. That includes the Heat, who didn't have a winning record at the time they played, and the Hawks, who beat Milwaukee four games prior to their rematch in the NBA Cup semis.

But it doesn't end there. Not only have the Bucks been beating inferior competition, they haven't been particularly good doing it. Their net rating over the last 15 games ranks just eighth in the NBA. In that same span, the Thunder are No. 1 -- while playing much tougher competition.

In fact, the 20-5 Thunder have the best net rating all season. They won their NBA Cup knockout games over the Mavericks and Rockets by 14 and 15 points, respectively. Buoyed by the league's best defense, they might legitimately be the best team in the NBA.

NBA Cup MVP

Jalen Williams +3500

The best argument for the Bucks to beat OKC is the belief that Giannis Antetokounmpo will simply will them to victory, which he is certainly capable of at a league-leading 32.7 points per game. So if you think this game is going to be closer than I do, he's your best bet.

I'm not convinced. The Thunder also have that type of player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is the third-leading scorer at 30.3 points per game. That's why he's favored to win the NBA Cup MVP at -175 odds, and he would be my pick as well at a better number.

While I do like SGA to win MVP, I don't like the idea of betting odds that short. And unfortunately, at this late stage, the number on him won't be great. So why not sprinkle a little something on OKC's second-leading scorer, Jalen Williams, to potentially steal the show?

This article originally appeared on For The Win: The Thunder won't have trouble disposing of the Bucks in the NBA Cup Final