The threat of a three-year ban from the lucrative Indian Premier League means Jofra Archer will appear in this weekend’s auction, potentially complicating England’s plans to nurse him back to Test cricket.

Archer was not initially on the 574-strong shortlist for the 2025 IPL auction, which takes place in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Sunday as the player and England, with whom he holds a central contract, sought to clarify new league rules.

In a bid to gain greater control by preventing players withdrawing at the 11th hour if they are unhappy with what they are sold for at auction or picking and choosing which season they played, the IPL introduced a series of ban threats. Players who have played in the competition before – as has Archer – would be banned if they did not register for this year’s auction if fit. They would also be banned if they pulled out at the last minute, if fit.

This left England and Archer in an unenviable position of denying him three years’ earning potential at the IPL – potentially as much as $5 million (£3.95 million) – if he did not register this week.

England have been delicately managing Archer’s return to international cricket after a string of serious injuries, including stress fractures of the elbow and back. That has gone well in white-ball cricket this year, with the next natural step being the home Test series against India next summer and the Ashes that follow Down Under .

Hopes of keeping Archer out of IPL

In the months preceding those big series, England had hoped to keep Archer and Mark Wood out of the IPL – and therefore in their control – but the threat of a ban has forced their hand, and Archer is expected to appear on a list of players added to the auction before Sunday.

If he is picked up at auction (which is likely, given his class), England would still have the right to withdraw Archer from the tournament if they have any doubts about his fitness following the Champions Trophy in March. They could withdraw his no-objection certificate, the paperwork a player needs to play in an overseas league.

This year’s is a mega-auction, where teams are only able to retain a small number of players, meaning 204 slots are available at the sale.

Archer has not played Test cricket since February 2021, and England hope to have him available for a big 2025. To show that he could get through the rigours of a Test match, he would likely need to prove his fitness in first-class cricket with Sussex. If he played in the IPL, that opportunity would be delayed, potentially pushing back his return to England whites, too.

Wood’s situation is subtly different. He is injured until the new year, and his contract with England is longer (until October 2026, rather than October 2025, and possibly more lucrative). He is not expected to be a late addition to the auction list.

England’s Archer roadmap

Quietly, with little fuss, Archer has pulled together six months of cricket that provide enough evidence for England fans to dare to dream that he could be involved in a hotly anticipated Test series that begins on November 21, 2025.

But the tug of war over his place in the 2025 IPL auction is a reminder that there are many hurdles to jump before he plays Test cricket again, and that we do not live in an era where international teams are in full control.

England have spent much of the time since February 2021 plotting a way back to Test whites for him. In 2023, when he fought back from a 679-day gap between international appearances in white-ball cricket, the Ashes appeared a possibility, only for injury to strike again. This time, they are pleading for even more patience, and trying to take an even slower road back. There has been no sense of rush, especially this year, when there could have been a temptation to expedite things with James Anderson retired. It has gone well so far.

On May 25, Archer returned to action in the T20 series against Pakistan. He followed it with a full T20 World Cup campaign, eight matches in the Hundred, a Vitality Blast quarter-final, then the white-ball series against Australia and a tour of the Caribbean. He has been rested and rotated here and there but largely Archer has glided through half a year’s cricket showing decent form and few worrying signs.

Archer has been dogged by injury and expectation for so long that a visible disappointment creeps across his face whenever a journalist asks about his progress, and especially a Test return. Speaking after a superb showing in an ODI at Lord’s in September, Archer mentioned “check marks” and “takeaways”.

“I think the World Cup was a good check mark,” he said. “This [the Australia series] was a good check mark. The Caribbean will be another good check mark. Yeah, I’d say that [this summer has gone as well as it could have]. I’m still on the park and we’re almost approaching the end of the summer. So, for me, that’s a takeaway. I wanted to play a summer, and then I want to play a year, and then I want to play a few years. So, everything is going to plan.”

Signs of progress in Caribbean

Two months on, that is still true. In the Caribbean, there were signs of progress as England upped his workload. He bowled a spell of more than four overs for the first time this year. After that game at Lord’s, England had rested him for the next ODI in Bristol two days later, to make sure they did not overburden him, but in the Caribbean he played three 50-over games straight, including two in three days. These are small but significant steps.

The next step in the build-up to his workload is first-class cricket, with a view to playing Tests. By the end of their tour of New Zealand, England will have played 50 Tests since Archer last appeared in one. They have got used to being without him.

For now, Archer will have a break. Wood and Josh Tongue will join England Lions – who are coached by Andrew Flintoff and have Dale Steyn as a coaching consultant – in South Africa this month to get more bowling outdoors as they recover from injury. But a solid tour of the Caribbean means there is no need for Archer to join them. In January, he will tour India with England, before playing in the Champions Trophy.

It is at this point things get complicated. As centrally contracted players with poor injury records and big Test challenges looming, the players’ primary (but not most lucrative) employers, the England and Wales Cricket Board tried to keep Archer and Wood out of this year’s IPL auction. But England were powerless to prevent Archer entering when it became clear he would be banned for three years from the IPL if he did not. Missing one year’s IPL wages is one thing, three another entirely in a short career constantly threatened by injury.

So, if fit, Archer is almost certain to spend the months of April and May in India, rather than playing for Sussex. England will hope he is picked up by a franchise prepared to cooperate on his workload (as Mumbai Indians did in previous seasons). If not, those two months are the biggest potential banana skin for Archer’s chances of playing a couple of games against India and, if things went well, three or four games in the Ashes.

England are not as dependent on Archer as they once were. The pool of proper quicks has broadened in the past year. It is not all about Archer and Wood, who should not need to be over-bowled, as Archer was five years ago in New Zealand, or rushed back in desperation.

Gus Atkinson and Brydon Carse have impressed, so, too, Olly Stone and Tongue. Like Archer, Saqib Mahmood and Jamie Overton are looking good in white-ball cricket, and could be playing the longer format by the Ashes. There are eight names there; if England turned up to Australia with even five of them fit, they would have some options alongside Ben Stokes and Matthew Potts (and perhaps Chris Woakes, if he performs well in New Zealand), who are a little slower.

They hope to unearth a couple more gems on Flintoff’s Lions tour, where the very raw Josh Hull and Mitchell Stanley are highly rated, alongside the more seasoned John Turner and Dillon Pennington.

As Rob Key, England’s managing director, acknowledged when he said recently that he had all his “fingers crossed” for Archer to play Test cricket again, the key as they try to navigate the year before the Ashes is landing a little more luck. That will never be more important than during the IPL.