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Two successive bad January windows, two successive bad second halves to season

Emmanuel Dennis <i>(Image: Action Images)</i>
Emmanuel Dennis (Image: Action Images)

Since they dropped back into the Championship, it wouldn’t need much gallows humour to associate Watford’s form and Christmas decorations.

The fact is both come down very quickly in the New Year.

In both 2022/23 and 2023/24, the Hornets win rate dipped significantly during the second half of the season, and already that is being mirrored in the current campaign.

On December 31, 2022, Watford sat fifth in the Championship table. They ended the season in 11th.

On December 31, 2023, the Hornets were 10th in the league, and finished the season in 15th place.

On New Year’s Eve just a few weeks ago, Watford were seventh – now they are ninth.

It could, of course, just be coincidence, and there will be examples of other teams who do the same, and some who seem to finish stronger.

But given the last two January transfer windows have been dreadful, and the current one so far has seen only one new arrival, there has to be comparisons drawn between the recruitment in winter and the results on the pitch.

Watford had a 36% win-rate in matches between the start of the season and the end of December last term, and they dropped to 19% in the second half of the campaign.

A year earlier, the Hornets won 44% of their league games in the first half of the season, but only 29% from January 1 onwards.

This season, Tom Cleverley’s side won 48% of games before the turn of the year, but have won only 17% so far in 2025.

Alarmingly, up to and including January 27, 2025, Watford have only won six home league games in the second half of the season since the start of the 22/23 campaign.

That’s a 27% win-rate at Vicarage Road from January 1 in the last three seasons.

Although in January 2023 the Hornets were able to add Ismael Kone to their playing squad, he had already been signed in December so wasn’t actually a January transfer window signing.

A large chunk of the budget that winter went on the Ben Manga-recommended Joao Ferreira, who has gone on to play only five times for Watford and is currently on loan at SC Braga.

The investment in Wes Hoedt and Ryan Porteous proved far more successful, but Slaven Bilic’s desire to bring in a No.9 to compete with Keinan Davis saw the diminutive Henrique Araujo arrive on loan from Benfica – another move brokered by Manga.

Henrique Araujo in training. (Image: Alan Cozzi)

The Portuguese Under-21 international, who arrived with a reported £100m release clause in his contract, failed to score in eight outings – and has netted only five times in 35 appearances during a couple of loan spells in Portugal since then.

Bilic was also handed the likes of Britt Assombalonga, Leandro Bacuna and Matheus Martins on loan.

The former Croatia boss lasted 10 games into 2023 and was then replaced in March by Chris Wilder – whose 11 games in charge delivered three wins, three draws and five defeats, including the disaster at Kenilworth Road (which wasn’t actually the bottom of the derby day barrel).

Last January, cobwebs gathered around the table and chairs in the room used for photographing new signings at London Colney.

Giorgi Chakvetadze’s loan move was made permanent (and much credit where it’s due, that €2.5m looks a real bargain) but despite Valerien Ismael wanting a striker, a defensive midfielder and a left-sided defender, nothing happened.

Much of that was due to the intransigence of a manager whose attitude towards new signings reflected his attitude towards style of play – my way or no way.

The Frenchman had his targets but when, for a variety of reasons, they proved unattainable, he dug his heels in and dismissed alternatives offered to him by the club.

Instead, with a week to go in the January window last year, former striker Emmanuel Dennis returned to the club on loan.

The Nigerian international had been sold to Nottingham Forest for around €14m early in the 22/23 campaign but played only 715 minutes at the City Ground.

His season-long loan at Turkish side Istanbul Basaksehir had been cut short, and Dennis returned to Vicarage Road carrying a bit of excess timber and clearly well short of match fitness.

That was reflected in his very gradual inclusion in the team – his first five appearances totalling 68 minutes, though he did score in the 2-1 home defeat to Leicester.

His first start delivered a goal in a 2-1 loss to Huddersfield at Vicarage Road, but he wasn’t exactly pulling up any trees and some of his body language when apparently not played in a position he preferred was far from positive.

When Ismael departed and Cleverley took over, Dennis led the line at Birmingham and scored the goal that gave the interim head coach a priceless 1-0 win.

He followed up that up with the sort of performance which had been the hallmark of his first spell at the club, giving Leeds a torrid time at Vicarage Road and scoring a great goal in a 2-2 draw.

After that he started five more times but didn’t show the form he had against Leeds and didn’t even make the bench on the last day of the season at Middlesbrough.

That he is being linked with Watford again this January is as much as journalists thinking they’ve spotted an open goal, given the links between club and player, but there is nothing to suggest there is anything concrete in that.

Indeed, while Vakoun Bayo may not be the choice of many to lead the line, he’s more suited to the role than Dennis.

The No.9 position is one that badly needs sorting between now and next week, and the longer that doesn’t happen the more likely it feels that Mileta Rajovic could be brought back to Vicarage Road.

Doubtless he would score some goals, mostly from eight yards or less, but his overall contribution to the team and the way Cleverley wants to play is negligible.

Mamadou Doumbia looks promising but is raw and inexperienced. If no striker arrives and Rajovic isn’t recalled, any sort of serious injury to Bayo would surely be a massive problem.

It’s been a while since Watford signed a goalkeeper in the January window that actually went into the team.

Maduka Okoye was signed a couple of years ago but then loaned straight back to Sparta Rotterdam, while Rob Elliott arrived in January 2021 to warm the bench.

Costel Pantilimon joined the club in January 2016 and proceeded to play in the FA Cup games as the Hornets reached the semi-finals.

(Image: Action Images)

Indeed you have to go back to February 2012, when the Hornets signed Tomas Kuszacak on an emergency loan from Manchester United, to find a goalkeeper that moved to Watford in the second half of a season and played league games.

It feels that, alongside a No.9, a goalkeeper also needs to arrive pronto.

There’s a very strong case for a defensive midfielder, an area that Cleverley tried to recruit in during the summer and which will continue to be a problem, while a left-sided defender has been lacking since Hoedt left in the summer.

With the Hornets toggling between three and four at the back, that player could do with being one who could operate as a centre-half or a full-back  . . . though at this point in time, beggars can’t be choosers.

What does seem essential is the club must factor in what and who Cleverley has asked for.

They appeared to totally ignore Bilic and then let Ismael stew in his own stubborn juices and, as the stats show, that has led to the last two seasons going the same way as the tinsel.