Tyson Fury vs Oleksandr Usyk: How the fighters match up
The battle to become the first undisputed heavyweight champion of the world since the four-belt era began finally takes place on Saturday as Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk face off in Saudi Arabia.
Aside from the titles at stake, what makes this match-up so intriguing is the stark contrast between the two fighters.
Fury is a giant of a man but also boasts speed and a boxing IQ that is perhaps unprecedented in a fighter of his size, while Usyk is a master technician with incredible movement who has stepped up to heavyweight after dominating the cruiserweight division.
Both go into the fight with unbeaten records – Usyk is 21-0 and Fury has 34 wins and one draw on his CV. Something has to give here and we have analysed how each of the two world champions can make history at the Kingdom Arena on Saturday night.
How can Oleksandr Usyk beat Tyson Fury?
There is an old saying in boxing that a good big man always beats a good little man and generally that rings true, but there are other variables at play here.
Yes, Tyson Fury is a very good big man but Oleksandr Usyk is an exceptional ‘little’ man and he has the tools to secure the victory.
What makes this fight so hard to call is that there has never been a heavyweight clash like this at the highest level. Evander Holyfield and David Haye both stepped up to heavyweight to become world champions but they were both more natural at this weight than Usyk and they didn’t face tests that compare with the one Fury will provide.
However, there have been a few notable instances of fighters jumping up divisions to win titles. Manny Pacquiao dismantling Antonio Margarito and Canelo Alvarez moving up to light-heavyweight to dethrone Sergey Kovalev spring to mind. Such bouts, where an extraordinary smaller fighter beats a physically bigger yet highly skilled opponent, provide the best examples of how Usyk can win here, rather than any historic heavyweight contests.
For Usyk, movement is key, and first and foremost he has to ensure Fury is unable to pin him down. Aside from a knockdown that was controversially ruled as a low blow against Daniel Dubois, Usyk has never looked in any danger in this division and that is largely due to his speed and footwork.
Finding a way to close the distance and get his own shots away without getting drawn into a firefight will also be a priority. How Usyk executes this aspect of his game plan will depend on how Fury approaches the fight, as in the early stages it is likely to be the Briton who dictates proceedings.
Taking a look at the bookmakers’ prices, Usyk is evens to win by any method at the time of writing, and as Fury has never been stopped, the 2/1 on a points win for the Ukrainian could be the way to go in the method of victory market.
However, a Usyk stoppage at 9/2 can’t be ruled out either if he is dominating in the later rounds – and to be even more bold, a victory in rounds 10 to 12 is 14/1. Deontay Wilder and Francis Ngannou have managed to knock down Fury and neither of those are close in terms of skill to Usyk, who is 5/2 to score a knockdown in the fight.
How can Tyson Fury beat Oleksandr Usyk?
As the bigger man, Fury is more likely to set the tone in the early exchanges, in which case Usyk will have to react to what he does.
The WBC champion could begin by fighting off the back foot and using his jab to control the distance, or he could attempt to make a fast start and catch Usyk off guard early on in a bid to overwhelm him.
Fury, who is the marginal favourite to win the fight, has used both of these tactics with success previously. He fought off the back foot and alternated between stances against Wladimir Klitschko, who was then picked off on the counter. In his second and third meetings with Deontay Wilder, he moved in quickly when the opportunities arose to land big shots, recording stoppages in both fights.
The Gypsy King will probably alternate between the two styles on Saturday but initially he may opt to fight off the back foot in a bid to dictate the distance and give himself a chance of nullifying Usyk’s speed. If this approach is successful for Fury, a points win is the most likely outcome at 21/10.
Of course, Usyk is a lot quicker than Klitschko ever was and Fury may have to switch his tactics and become more aggressive over the course of the 12 rounds. Since his tactical masterclass against Klitschko, Fury has reinvented himself as a bit of a knockout specialist (only two of his last seven bouts have gone the distance) and he is 3/1 to win by KO, TKO or disqualification.
There is a third option here as there is a chance both men may cancel each other out, whatever tactics they deploy on the night, and a draw is on offer at a best price of 14/1. Earlier in the week there were whispers that as much as 15 per cent of the market was on the draw, a figure likely to shrink considerably as the fight nears, but maybe a clear indication of where the true value lies.
All odds correct at the time of writing.
