UFC Vegas 101 may have been the official launch of the UFC's 2025 calendar, but the schedule starts in earnest with UFC 311. And already, chaos is afoot in the new year.

Saturday's main event at Los Angeles' Intuit Dome underway a dramatic change on Friday when Arman Tsarukyan withdrew from his lightweight title rematch against Islam Makhachev due to a back injury. In his stead now steps the streaking Renato Moicano, who accepts the biggest opportunity of his MMA career on what is barely more than 24 hours' notice for UFC 311's new championship headliner.

The co-main event provides us at least some stability as the newly-minted bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili makes his first defense against Umar Nurmagomedov.

Let's make some picks to get this year rolling among the insanity, shall we?

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

155 pounds: (C) Islam Makhachev (-1000) vs. Renato Moicano (+625)

There's never a dull moment in MMA, is there?

After Tsarukyan's sudden last-minute injury, Makhachev is now tasked with facing Moicano on a day's notice, and Beneil Dariush unfortunately gets the night off. The MMA gods have a cruel way of ringing in the new year, but at least we still get to see the champion in action against a ridiculously game new challenger.

If you read the original version of this UFC 311 preview, you already know who I think is winning this new fight — I picked Makhachev to win and Moicano to lose their original matchups. The latter deserves heaps of praise for taking the toughest fight imaginable on such short notice with an additional two rounds. This is a nearly impossible mountain for Moicano to climb under any circumstances. In this case, he admittedly might have his best chance because of the abrupt nature of how the fight came together.

Moicano last stepped in on short notice when he replaced Rafael Fiziev against Rafael dos Anjos four days before UFC 272 in March 2022. That was also his most recent loss. Dos Anjos beat Moicano from pillar to post across five rounds, and it started getting hard to watch toward the end. Ultimately, Moicano survived to hear the judges' scorecards and garnered praise for his incredible toughness and fearless attitude.

Makhachev is superior in every aspect of MMA to his new challenger, which is why he's the best fighter on Earth. He'll hold that edge over nearly any lightweight he's up against. Outside of some incredible submission that catches Makhachev in a clumsy scramble, the champion should cruise to a victory on Saturday, implementing his soul-crushing top pressure to pummel and break his new Brazilian challenger. Whether it's a submission or knockout, Makhachev shouldn't have any trouble replicating an even more violent version of what dos Anjos did to Moicano.

Like I said originally with Dariush vs. Moicano, there are levels to this game. UFC 311's new main event will only further exemplify that. What a way to become the lightweight title defense record holder.

Pick: Makhachev

135 pounds: (C) Merab Dvalishvili (+220) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-275)

Alright, listen: I'm a Dvalishvili believer. The guy is the champion for a reason and his winning streak speaks for itself. But Nurmagomedovs not named Abubakar simply do not lose. (So sorry, Abubakar.)

Dvalishvili has consistently highlighted one specific talking point in this matchup: Nurmagomedov's level of competition. It's a massive factor when speaking about your average fighter, and it's fair to bring it up. Hell, I do it regularly in these previews. But in this case? It simply does not apply, because we're talking about a legitimate Dagestani destroyer.

There's no argument in favor of Nurmagomedov fighting better opposition than Dvalishvili because he simply hasn't. But the same arguments were made against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Makhachev during their rises too. Their divisions — and anyone with eyeballs — knew they were those otherworldly great fighters. And what do you know? They went and proved it by becoming dominant champions.

It's almost like winning 20 MMA fights in a row is wildly impressive and difficult to do, you know?

Plenty of interesting parallels can be drawn between this pairing and the main event. Thanks to the champion's never-ending cardio, it's no secret how relentless Dvalishvili is when pursuing takedowns. He's the definition of a fearless game-planner. You know what the man is going to do; it's on his opponents to stop it — and next to no one has been able to over the past six years.

But Nurmagomedov? From a technical standpoint, the undefeated Dagestani can match Dvalishvili just as Tsarukyan can with Makhachev. He might arguably even be better regarding move-by-move plays and the intricacies of a wrestling match. The biggest question with Dvalishvili though is whether his opponents can outlast him, and the answer to that tends to be no. No, they cannot.

Nurmagomedov, 29, is the next evolution of these talented killers under Javier Mendez. Like his younger brother PFL champion Usman Nurmagomedov, phenomenally talented wrestling skills are supported by striking that outperforms their legendary teammates. That's the X-factor in this matchup.

Dvalishvili has improved steadily as a striker and showed it off more than expected when he won the title against Sean O'Malley at UFC 306 last September. But we've seen Dvalishvili get chinned before. Obviously, he managed to survive, but the right hands of Marlon Moraes and Henry Cejudo displayed an evident weakness that the Georgians carries.

Everyone's chin goes eventually, and they're even more susceptible when fueled by emotions like the champ is for this one.

That's right. I'm taking Nurmagomedov to win via strikes. Have we not learned by now? These men are a different breed.

Pick: Nurmagomedov

205 pounds: Jiri Prochazka (+115) vs. Jamahal Hill (-140)

The UFC light heavyweight division has been weird since Jon Jones left it behind in 2020. Weird doesn't necessarily mean bad, though. Especially when it comes to fun.

Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill both had short, snakebitten title reigns in the aftermath of Jones' departure. After injury woes ended Prochazka's time as champion, he was supposed to return against Hill — then Hill tore his Achilles playing pick-up basketball. Here we are now. Better late than never, right?

Flip a coin to decide who's visiting the shadow realm in this one. While Hill's career length falls far short of Prochazka's, he's put things together in the UFC more than he gets credit for. He's also only fought to decision twice in nine Octagon appearances, though that pales in comparison to Prochazka, who has only gone the distance twice throughout his entire 36-fight career.

We love ourselves a legitimate kill-or-be-killed matchup over at Uncrowned, and this one ticks that box.

Both men have underrated grappling — Hill more so than Prochazka, as seen in their Glover Teixeira fights — but those ground games won't be needed in this one. They're going to duke it out on the feet, with Hill working behind boxing combinations and Prochazka throwing anything that springs to mind. (Some techniques — or lack thereof — seen from Prochazka's arsenal are absurd, especially for a light heavyweight. I say that as the greatest compliment.)

Prochazka's defensive flaws have been exposed a bit against the current champion Alex Pereira, however Hill is no Pereira, and Prochazka is the perfect blend of wild man to walk through most others.

Whether it's a spinning elbow, head kick or flying knee, this fight has all the makings of a vintage, ridiculous, highlight-reel finish for Prochazka.

Pick: Prochazka

185 pounds: Kevin Holland (-105) vs. Reinier de Ridder (-115)

Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder is our classic striker vs. grappler matchup.

De Ridder instantly became one of the best submission artists in the middleweight division when he debuted in the UFC this past November. Like Dvalishvili, there are no secrets with "RDR." Don't play with him on the ground.

Knowing Holland, he never will, even in matchups he should. (Stephen Thompson says hello.)

Holland has been manhandled by strong grapplers before. As talented as de Ridder is with his jiu-jitsu, I can't foresee him dominating Holland like Khamzat Chimaev did, but if the former ONE Championship two-division titleholder gets "Trailblazer" down, that will be a wrap.

De Ridder is stiff and awkward on the feet — even if he magically knocked down Gerald Meerschaert — so expect the Dutchman to get hurt on the feet early, then drag Holland to the ground and find a submission. Regardless, he shouldn't struggle too much with getting Holland down and eventually earning his second UFC win with a tap or nap result.

Pick: de Ridder

Preliminary notes

After his stellar 2024, Payton Talbott has the world's support, and rightfully so. That said, Raoni Barcelos is a perfect veteran test for him at UFC 311, making these wide odds incredibly dangerous.

As Jailton Almeida looks to reestablish himself as a future title contender at heavyweight, Serghei Spivac is a good matchup for UFC 311's new pay-per-view opener, but also a dangerous one like Barcelos is for Talbott.

Grant Dawson vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira will be fun for as long as it lasts, and Ailin Perez has somehow climbed her way into a fight against a legit contender like Karol Rosa. Oh, women's bantamweight, it pains me beyond words to see the shambles you've become.

Quick picks:

Jailton Almeida (-500) def. Serghei Spivac (+360)

Bogdan Guskov (-350) def. Billy Elekana (+260)

Payton Talbott (-1200) def. Raoni Barcelos (+725)

Azamat Bekoev (-200) def. Zachary Reese (+165)

Grant Dawson (-250) def. Carlos Diego Ferreira (+200)

Karol Rosa (-250) def. Ailín Pérez (+200)

Rinya Nakamura (-550) def. Muin Gafarov (+400)

Bernardo Sopaj (-275) def. Ricky Turcios (+225)

Tagir Ulanbekov (-350) def. Clayton Carpenter (+260)