Ahh, yes, the first pay-per-view of the year. Time to dish out some of that hard-earned disposable income to see some big-time fights.

UFC 311 got a major shakeup on Friday, when we learned that Arman Tsarukyan suffered a back injury and was forced out of his main event title fight with Islam Makhachev. That’s the bad news. The good news is that Renato “Money” Moicano — the man who has resurrected his career and established himself as a cult figure over the past year in the UFC — gets a chance to step in and make history.

Talk about your defining career moment coming crashing in.

The co-main remains the same, and it’s a cracker, as Merab Dvalishvili — dominant champion with 11 straight victories and a king-sized chip on his shoulder — goes head-to-head with the bane of his existence, the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov.

None of them is American. All of them are beasts.

And we have some questions as we get set for the first colossal UFC pay-per-view of the year.

1. What are the chances Moicano throws a wrench into all the Islam legacy talk by springing one of MMA's greatest upsets?

Petesy: You know I'm an optimistic fellow, Chuck, but I think this is a pretty hopeless task, given that Moicano has had no specific training for Uncrowned's No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter on the planet due to the nature of this 11th-hour booking. Honestly, I'm trying to think of a path to victory for "Money," and I keep coming up with nothing.

With that said, everybody loved crapping on me from a height after I picked Benoit Saint-Denis to beat Dustin Poirier, so let me double down on this for our readers' enjoyment:

Categorically, there is no way that Renato Moicano can beat Islam Makhachev in the main event of UFC 311.

There, I said it.

I will accept the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune should I stand to be corrected (again).

Chuck: Hater!

I wish I could counter that, Petesy, but if you remove a gnome from the path of a bulldozer and stick a lawn chair there in its place, the lawn chair is still in for a long day.

I love that Moicano is stepping up and throwing himself into this opportunity — and at 35 years old, why wouldn’t he? — but I don’t see him presenting much resistance against Makhachev. Moicano had his mind on Beneil Dariush, who is a far different fighter than the seemingly unbeatable champ.

However, if he does go in there and pull off the impossible, this is going to be a wild way to kick off 2025. The lightweight division will be in a state of disarray, and all the contenders will be forced to stand by as Moicano vs. Makhachev 2 plays out. That would be one hell of a detour.

2. With the last-minute switch changing the dynamic, if Makhachev beats Moicano, does he surpass Khabib Nurmagomedov as the lightweight GOAT?

Petesy: I’ve always felt like Khabib Nurmagomedov walked so Islam Makhachev could run, but let's be honest, despite the toughness both Moicano and Makhachev are showing by accepting this last-minute main event, I don't think the Brazilian will be one of the chief highlights on the champion's record, should Makhachev get his hand raised like the vast majority of people (including me) are expecting.

Dagestan's two UFC lightweight champions are equal in terms of title defenses now, and if Makhachev can make it to October with the belt, he will surpass Nurmagomedov and become the longest-reigning lightweight champion of all time. By the numbers, at that stage, you could certainly argue that Makhachev has surpassed Nurmagomedov. Be that as it may, I don’t think he will surpass the cultural impact Nurmagomedov had.

The waiting game he played for Conor McGregor to be stripped of the title, his subsequent victory over the biggest superstar the UFC has seen — milestones like that certainly added to his legacy and mystique. I also believe “The Eagle” was a substantial part of the UFC venturing to new markets and striking deals with Abu Dhabi.

In short, he could certainly surpass Nurmagomedov in terms of his accomplishments as a fighter, but I don’t think Makhachev will ever have the same impact as his compatriot had on the sport.

Chuck: Well said, Petesy. And it doesn’t help Makhachev’s standing that he was born in Nurmagomedov’s shadow. We have seen him as a 2.0 version from the start of his UFC career, and every time he gets his hand raised, you can look over his shoulder and see the proud face of Nurmagomedov, smiling ear-to-ear. We’ve learned exactly where the accents belong in the word “protégé,” that’s for sure.

But your point about Khabib’s impact can’t be overstated. Dagestan is now long known as a manufacturer of killers, but that all started with Nurmagomedov. He gave a nation a feel of dominance. That undefeated record he held throughout his career was a topic of conversation that never felt particularly vulnerable. The fact that he lost virtually nothing — like what, two rounds? — in his whole career illustrates the gulf that existed between him and everybody else. The McGregor rivalry sweetened the pot for a guy who introduced the word “smesh” into our fight game lexicons.

I think it’s going to take something truly transcendent from Makhachev for him to pass Nurmagomedov in the lightweight GOAT convo, and honestly, that’s not an impossible ask. Should he move up to welterweight and win a title? That might change some things.

3. Merab Dvalishvili is the bantamweight champion with 11 straight wins. Is his underdog status a disrespect to him or a testament to how strong the Nurmagomedov name is?

Chuck: I touched on this a little bit in the feature I wrote on Merab this week, but this is some new terrain, Petesy. In the cases of Khabib, Usman and Umar, never has there been a Nurmagomedov fight in which the name felt as vulnerable. Umar might be the one heading into a buzzsaw. That’s a very different feel from Khabib warming up for McGregor or Usman preparing for Brent Primus.

My feeling is the odds are skewed in Umar’s favor because when people see the name Nurmagomedov on a bill, they are used to throwing him in a parlay and cashing that ticket. That aforementioned relish tray of Nurmagomedovs is 65-0-1 collectively, meaning people are used to seeing them rag-doll any fool who dares step in the cage with them.

Merab isn’t any fool. Go through the list of his stats against the likes of Jose Aldo, Henry Cejudo, Petr Yan and Sean O’Malley, and you see the pattern pretty clearly. This dude is a beast from another dimension. He doesn’t beat people — he breaks them. He won’t admit it, but he feels disrespected by the line, too.

Petesy: Poor Merab. After speaking with his coach, John Wood, I feel like I have a better understanding of his obvious frustration in the lead-up to the fight. He already beat one of the brightest stars on the roster in Sean O’Malley at UFC 306, but he obviously feels like the UFC sees Nurmagomedov as a potential poster boy of the future, hence his being hurried up the ladder to title contention.

Wood made a great point during our conversation: What if Merab is the superstar they’ve been waiting for all this time? People forget that it was not a quick ascent for Khabib into popular culture. I guess we’ll find out if he keeps winning.

Back to the question: It does feel like people are overlooking the names Dvalishvili topped to put himself in this position. By comparison, Nurmagomedov has not proven himself in the same manner despite his impressive win over Cory Sandhagen. I can’t help but feel Umar is being greatly assisted by his prestigious surname, not only by the UFC, but by bookmakers, too.

4. What's at stake for Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill?

Chuck: The one thing that Hill has done since losing to Alex Pereira at UFC 300 is plant seeds. He yawns at every Pereira knockout. He chirps at him in the media. He gets into little scuffles at the UFC PI with the champ. He just keeps poking the bear, and if he is able to go in there and plaster Prochazka with a big knockout, you know he’s going to spit hot fire into that microphone for the rematch, even if Magomed Ankalaev is set to be booked next.

My guess is even if Pereira vs. Ankalaev happens, Hill will lobby for being the backup fighter.

I think for Prochazka, it’s really about regaining status as the killer he was a year ago. If he goes in there and smokes Hill — and chances are, somebody is going down in the fight — they can book him into a top-five contender fight and get him headed back up. I don’t think a trilogy with Pereira speaks to fans right now. But there’s a strong chance that if he scores a couple of knockouts, you never know. There might be a different champion at the top, or Pereira will skedaddle to heavyweight.

Petesy: It’s a bit of a rotten situation for the lads because they’re both coming into this fight on the back of a loss to the champ. I think the best they can both hope for is Ankalaev to defeat Pereira so they can be considered genuine title contenders again. I would prefer to see 41-year-old Jan Blachowicz get a rematch than either of these chaps. The Polish former champion remains the only person to have gone the distance with “Poatan,” who got the nod via split decision when they met in 2023.

Hill has a better chance than Prochazka of making something happen. He might not be a fan favorite, but if he can make a spectacular example of Prochazka on Saturday, UFC might be more inclined to look his way down the line.

5. Aside from the two title fights, what's the sneakiest great fight on UFC 311?

Petesy: I’ve picked your new buddy Payton Talbott as my breakout star of 2025, so I’m incredibly intrigued by his fight with Raoni Barcelos. If Umar Nurmagomedov’s career trajectory is anything to go by, the kid could be fighting for a title before the end of the year!

Aside from that, I like Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder a lot. De Ridder didn’t set the world on fire in his UFC debut, despite claiming a third-round finish over Gerald Meerchaert. He had a great run with ONE Championship, but I still think he took substantial years off his career with his two heavyweight fights against ONE's three-division titleholder Anatoly Malykhin, both of which saw him get knocked out.

Holland is the perfect man to test whether de Ridder’s chin can still hold up.

Chuck: That is a great fight. I very much look forward to it.

But you know I like to see them big boys throw down. And I’m not giving up on Jailton Almeida due to one little loss to Curtis Blaydes. That fight he has with Serghei Spivac on the prelims promises to be a fun one, and I think we’ve started to shovel dirt onto Almeida’s title chances a little prematurely.

The Brazilian submission master looked better than ever in his most recent fight against Alexandr Romanov, and I think Spivac will afford him the chance to showcase here.