If Newcastle United are not going to sign anyone this month – and that is what everybody behind the scenes has been insisting for several weeks – they run a risk of success slipping through their fingers. A Champions League place is there for the taking, while another shot at ending the most infamous trophy drought remains a distinct possibility in the Carabao Cup and, to a lesser extent, FA Cup.

Newcastle, though, are not going to strengthen a squad, which is weaker now than it was last term, that has elite players, but not the depth to go with it. They rely on a strong core group and have done so brilliantly again, but they have needed an upgrade at centre-back and on the right wing for two years. They have done nothing about it.

The risk is obvious from a purely football perspective, but it is one they say they are steadfast in being willing to take.

Short-term decision-making – answering the needs of the present rather than worrying about the problems it could create – has been replaced by long-term strategic thinking. It was why sporting director Paul Mitchell was appointed last July and the Newcastle hierarchy are unapologetic about the shift in approach.

The bottom line is that if Newcastle spend this month, they will have to sell someone before the end of June to comply with Premier League profitability and sustainability rules (PSR).

Having experienced the panic that came last summer, when they had a £60 million black hole in their finances, the horror of being less than 48 hours away from a 10-point penalty and those frantic, stressful days knowing that every player was effectively up for sale, Newcastle are determined to avoid a repeat.

It is a prudent and sensible approach, but it fuels frustration. If Newcastle miss out on the Champions League, the hit to their prestige, as well as their finances, will be a painful and debilitating one. As for claiming the holy grail of a major trophy…

Their top players, such as Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon, Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes, may well feel disgruntled enough to believe the time has come for them to move on, using the lack of Champions League football as their excuse.

These are things being juggled behind the scenes. Nobody at Newcastle is daft and while manager Eddie Howe wanted to strengthen this month, he understands and appreciates the financial situation. He is on the same page as Mitchell, whose relationship with the manager is far stronger than people have claimed.

What we know now is they are a different club to the one who immediately followed the Saudi Arabia-led takeover in 2021. Back then, the pledge was to win the lot. English football was so terrified of unleashing another Chelsea and Manchester City, they changed the rules regarding sponsorship deals connected to owners.

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) would not be allowed to turbo-charge investment in the club through companies they own and, with it, accelerate Newcastle’s progress. The rules have worked as they were intended.

The change has been gradual, but defined. The big turning point came last summer when co-owner Amanda Staveley departed. She had fronted the controversial takeover and led the club in those thrilling first two years when Newcastle spent heavily to turn a relegation-battling squad into a Champions League-qualifying one.

Despite the kind words that followed, Staveley had been forced out. She did not have the money to keep investing in the club alongside PIF and the Reuben family, but she was also perceived as a loose cannon and did not rub along easily with chief executive Darren Eales.

Newcastle, under Staveley’s watch, were dreamers. They were crowd-pleasers. They wanted to give the supporters, as well as Howe, what they wanted, all of the time. It is who Staveley is and how she operates. If Staveley was still in charge, Newcastle would have signed a winger this month, no matter if it cost them £50 million to do so. As long as they got one of their top targets.

They would have gambled. They would have reached for the stars, even at the risk of over-stretching, losing their footing and crashing down with a bump. Giving Howe better tools to complete the mission would have been their first priority, worrying about who they needed to sell was a can that could be volleyed down the road.

Newcastle are sixth in the table, level on points with Manchester City and two points behind Chelsea in fourth.

With Nottingham Forest, whom they beat comfortably away from home earlier in the season, occupying third place, Howe’s side – whose defeat by Bournemouth last weekend brought an end to a nine-game winning run – are well positioned to obtain a second top-four finish in three years.

Securing Champions League football would be another remarkable achievement for Howe and his players. They were targeting a top-eight finish back in August. With the fact he could also guide the team to a second Carabao Cup final in that same period, should Newcastle capitalise on their 2-0 advantage from the first leg against Arsenal, this has the makings of another historic campaign.

The opportunity is there to be taken; history could be made, trophy-winning glory is within their grasp. Therefore, there are some who are struggling to get their heads around the refusal to strengthen this month, given Newcastle have not signed a player to improve the first team since the summer of 2023.

But Newcastle are not the same club any more. They have spent too much already. PSR rules are largely designed to stop clubs like them spending what they want to put themselves on a level footing with the commercially larger and richer “Big Six”. The handcuffs are strong.

PIF are the richest owners in the world, but they have not been able to shake up the old order as they have done in boxing and golf with the same unlimited spending. Many people are very glad about that, too.

This is the reality Newcastle have been forced to operate in. By not spending now, they know they will be in a stronger financial position in the summer, when more of their leading targets will be available. It makes sense from a business perspective, but sometimes logic collides with hopes and dreams. It creates friction.

Newcastle can still fulfil their ambitions this season. It can still have a glorious outcome. They can still win the Carabao Cup, but they will need to avoid injuries, they will need a lot of luck and they will need Howe to extract more from this group than he has done before.

It is a tall order, that could have been made easier this month, but Newcastle are planning for the future rather than worrying solely about the present. They are going to stick rather than twist.