The verdict on the Wales team for France as Gatland changes approach with job on the line
Cast your minds back to the 40 minute mark of Wales' Six Nations clash with France at the Principality Stadium in March 2024.
France held a slender 20-17 lead at the interval after Wales had more than held their own with tries from Rio Dyer and Tomos Williams. When the clock hit the 50 minute mark Wales were in contention but on came the French version of the bomb squad and that was that.
Warren Gatland's men could not compete with the power of the physically superior men in blue and were subsequently battered into submission on their own patch, losing 45-24. Fast forward 11 months and the same physical onslaught awaits Gatland's men but this time Wales will have to contend with a vociferous home crowd at the Stade de France.
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"That's a key thing out there if we can silence the crowd," said new Wales scrum coach Adam Jones, a man who knows what it takes to win in Paris
"It sounds a bit like Gladiator when Oliver Reed says it to Russell Crowe. If we can silence that, it's half the battle won."
Before we get into anything else, if Wales cannot find a way of stopping the likes of Peato Mauvaka, Emmanuel Meafou, Paul Boudehent and Grégory Alldritt then they stand no chance in Paris. Gatland has rolled the dice when it comes to selection with Cardiff hooker Evan Lloyd preferred to the more experienced Elliot Dee, while he has opted for the safety of Nick Tompkins and Owen Watkin in midfield.
There are only four survivors from the starting XV which lost to South Africa in November and it is hard to see Wales' tortuous run of 12 consecutive defeats come to an end in Paris.
But what can we glean from Gatland's matchday squad?
Solidity in midfield
Wales burned through five centre partnerships throughout the course of 2024. Gatland has plenty of talent to choose from in midfield but there is a lack of experience, exasperated by the international retirement of George North last March, and he has up to now failed to find the optimum combination.
The Welsh rugby corner of social media is full of calls for Gatland to be bold by selecting up and coming Scarlets centre Eddie James. But the New Zealander has decided to go for the solidity of Tompkins and Watkin.
Tompkins is an interesting one. The experienced Saracens centre started all but one of Wales' Six Nations fixtures in 2024 but was cast aside for Mason Grady in the summer, while he did not figure in the autumn, with Gatland preferring Ben Thomas and Max Llewellyn who has not been included in this squad.
Tompkins is not everyone's cup of tea but is an experienced campaigner who has up until recently been part of a winning environment at Saracens. His partner in crime Watkin is not the most creative centre around but rarely makes any mistakes, can carry hard and is respected within the Wales squad for his defensive prowess.
Tompkins and Watkin have started four times together but each time the Saracens man has been at 12. This time it is the other way around. The selection in midfield tells us a lot about how Wales want to play.
Wales will hope the experience and solidity of Tompkins and Watkin can contain the France midfield. This will not be easy considering France have the world's best player in Antoine Dupont making his first Six Nations appearance since 2023, while his Toulouse half-back partner Romain Ntamack has the potential to rip teams apart.
Bordeaux centre Yoram Moefana has been on fire of late, while flying wing Louis Bielle-Biarrey is deadly if given time and space. The likes of Watkin, Tompkins, Williams and Adams have historically been strong in defence while Scarlets wing Tom Rogers is good in the air.
Wales will want to contain France and hope they get frustrated if they can keep them at bay. This is a very reactive selection based on containing the threat France pose.
A glass half empty type of person might call it damage limitation.
Experience
Gatland is putting a lot of stock in experience by including wing Josh Adams and full-back Liam Williams, who were all unavailable for large parts of 2024, but the loss of No 8 Taulupe Faletau is a hammer blow for Wales' chances. There is a total of 157 international caps between the experienced duo and Gatland will be hopeful that can at least allow Wales to be more competitive in Paris.
Throughout 2024 Gatland put faith in players who were talented but lacked the experience and the nous required to succeed in the upper echelons of Test rugby. In theory, including senior campaigners like Adams and Williams should bring a bit more calm and stability to the starting XV.
On the whole this is the most experienced starting XV Gatland could have selected, apart from the surprising decision to go for Lloyd at hooker. Wales cannot afford to make rash decisions under pressure as they did on so many occasions in 2024.
If they can keep the error rate down and take good decisions under pressure then they can at least compete with Fabien Galthie's side. There is a total of 487 caps in the starting XV in comparison to the 205 caps which started against South Africa a couple of months ago.
"No scrum, no win"
Those were the words uttered by scrum coach Jones earlier this week. The French live and breath scrummaging so if Wales can't gain parity there it will be a long evening.
Gatland's decision to select Cardiff hooker Lloyd over Dee, who has 46 more caps, is perhaps down to Lloyd's superior size.
According to the official Welsh Rugby Union website, Lloyd stands at 6ft 1in and 18st 1lbs while Dee is 6ft and 16st 4lbs. Size does matter at Test level and this is likely to have won Lloyd the nod.
The 23-year-old is an explosive carrier who does have potential but Dee is the superior lineout thrower so there is an element of risk involved here. Handing former England tighthead Henry Thomas his first start for Wales is understandable.
The 33-year-old has been scrummaging well for the Scarlets but his knowledge of French rugby could also be beneficial. Thomas spent a couple of seasons playing for Montpellier and Castres in the Top 14 and more than held his own at scrum time.
Gaining parity at the scrum is a non-negotiable if Wales are to stand any chance of winning in Paris but they must also win their own ball at the lineout. No set-piece, no chance.
Discipline and defence
Wales' defensive stats were not good enough throughout 2024 where Gatland's men conceded 50 tries and scored 30. It goes without saying they must address that if they are to get back on the winning trail over the next couple of months.
On top of that Wales missed 294 tackles and in last years Six Nations there were four halves of rugby out of 10 where Gatland's men did not score a single point. They simply cannot post such stats and expect to win Test matches.
Wales have to stay discipline and cannot afford to give France any unnecessary field position because if they do they will be brutally put to the sword. The backrow of James Botham, Jac Morgan and Aaron Wainwright must do their best to slow down the speed of ruck ball for France.
If they can do that they stand a chance of frustrating the hosts but the reality is France have so much power and quality it is difficult to see Wales achieving this.
