Joe Schmidt’s decision to walk away as Wallabies coach puts Australian rugby back in flux. Five coaches in six years doesn’t reflect well on any organisation, and the aftershocks of Thursday’s announcement on fans, players, administrators and coaches will be seismic. Two years out from a World Cup on home turf and the host nation is starting over. Again.

Schmidt’s decision was not unexpected. The hallmark of his 13-month tenure as national coach has been honesty. He said from the outset this was a short term deal to stabilise a Wallabies side in freefall and rebuild it so another could take the reins long-term. “Get the job done over the next 18 months [and] momentum heading in the right direction,” he said.

Related: Joe Schmidt to stand down as Wallabies coach after Rugby Championship

Schmidt has done that and more. He has given Rugby Australia plenty and owes nothing. The 59-year-old has built a 6-7 win-loss record and a winning percentage of 46%. That’s a big drop from the 71% Schmidt tallied as Ireland coach but an uptick on predecessors Eddie Jones (22%) and Dave Rennie (38%) and a boost for a side winning at 41% since 2016.

Moreover, Schmidt has steered Australian rugby through the storm of Jones’s reign and the 2023 World Cup debacle, and finally has the old gold galleon heading in the right direction. He re-grounded them in basic skills while honing the attacking edge that is their trademark. By handing out 15 new caps last year – the most in 62 years – he has blooded the next generation.

Whether Schmidt stays on in an advisory or mentoring role beyond 4 October is immaterial. The Super Rugby season which starts next Friday has now become a Wallabies casting call. Not only is the hunt on for a new head coach but a fresh coaching staff too, with Schmidt’s old cronies, scrum guru Mike Cron and assistant Laurie Fischer, flagging their intent to retire.

All the coaches of Australia’s four Super franchises are legitimate contenders, and a raft of international prospects – Leon MacDonald (New Zealand), Ronan O’Gara (Ireland), Stuart Lancaster (England) and Vern Cotter (Scotland) – will possibly toss their hats in the ring too. But with a home World Cup so close, RA’s preference will be for an Australian in charge.

Les Kiss shapes as the early favourite and certainly offers a smooth transition from Schmidt. The former North Sydney Bears flyer started his rugby coaching career as a defense coach for South Africa (2001-02) and Ireland (2009-18) then took over as Ireland’s interim boss until Schmidt arrived. In six years together they made Ireland the world’s No 1 rugby team.

After an 8-6 season in his first year at the Queensland Reds in 2024, Kiss, 60, is building on a strong resume domestically and internationally, and his 2025 squad promises big things.

But Rugby Australia’s axing of the Melbourne Rebels diverted a bigger river of gold to 2024 wooden spooners, the NSW Waratahs, and another highly-credentialed coach in Dan McKellar.

The 48-year-old’s successful four seasons at the Brumbies (2018-22), two-year tenure as Wallabies assistant to Dave Rennie and a reputation as a tough nut will appeal to RA bosses who owe McKellar one after spurning him as heir apparent for Jones in 2023. But much depends on how he marshals and mentors the 13 Wallabies in this Tahs squad.

Stephen Larkham was another Wallabies second-in-command tapped for the top job before being forced out. In 102 Tests for the Wallabies, Larkham became an emblem of guile, flair and guts. He has transitioned those skills to a 14-year career as a coach with the Brumbies and Munster. The 50-year-old has the best form, having led the Brumbies to Super semis these past two years.

Western Force coach Simon Cron has a rugby brain the equal of those three and if anyone can talk Mike Cron into staying it’s his nephew. But the Force must first become one in 2025. Until then the other dark horse is Michael Cheika, former Wallabies coach between 2014 and 2019, who is yet again a free agent after opting not to re-sign with Leicester in the English Premiership.

The last time RA sequestered a smash-and-grab was with Jones for the 2023 World Cup. Were they crazy enough to try again and hand a two-year remit up to the 2027 tournament, Cheika, 57, would be the man. With similar timelines, he delivered titles to NSW and Leinster and took the Wallabies to the 2015 World Cup final. Do the Wallabies dare go back for the future?

Australian rugby, desperate for continuity and a safe pair of hands, wanted Schmidt to stay. But as Mike Tyson famously mused: “Everyone’s got a plan till they get punched in the face.” Whoever RA goes with gets a home World Cup and a revenge mission as a first assignment: go to Japan on 25 October and tear Eddie Jones and his Brave Blossoms side to shreds.