Warren Gatland has six nailed-on starters for France but the rest tells its own story
Warren Gatland's preparations for Wales' Six Nations campaign are already well under way ahead of the opener against France in Paris on January 31.
The Wales coaches will already have the majority of the matchday 23 pencilled in for what will be a tough challenge - a formidable France side who beat New Zealand last November. Competition for places is a key ingredient in team sport but even the great sides have a handful of players they cannot do without.
Think back to the great All Blacks side who were crowned world champions in 2011 and 2015. Yes, they had an incredible amount of strength in depth but but they could not do without the legendary Dan Carter or their indomitable captain Richie McCaw.
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Indeed, a torn adductor in Carter's groin, which ruled the outside-half out of the majority of the 2011 tournament, very nearly cost Graham Henry's side the World Cup.
In fact, consistency in selection was a key part of Gatland's success during his first sting in charge of Wales.
On the flip side, Gatland's selection has been somewhat erratic this time around but for the Six Nations he has been boosted by the return of a few key players who missed the majority of 2024 due to injury. There are roughly six players who are as close to nailed-on selections as possible, fitness permitting.
Taulupe Faletau is not included in this list because his recent injury record is extremely concerning with Cardiff head coach Matt Sherratt revealing the 34-year-old is touch and go to be fit for the start of the Six Nations. But his partner in crime in the backrow Jac Morgan is a player Wales cannot do without.
Yes, Tommy Reffell is an outstanding seven who is as good a fetcher as one will find in the northern hemisphere, but Morgan has a supreme all-round game. The Wales captain is an inspirational leader and is an X-factor player who delivers big moments in big games.
Morgan is an elite player who will almost surely be included in Andy Farrell's squad when the British & Irish Lions tour Australia this summer. Aaron Wainwright isn't far off this bracket either but it is not inconceivable Gatland goes with James Botham and Morgan in the same backrow as he did against South Africa in the autumn.
Wales' Mr Consistent Gareth Thomas is also a nailed-on starter. The 31-year-old is a real unsung hero who is strong in the scrum and does much of the unseen dirty work around the park.
There are many within the upper echelons of the game who are adamant the Ospreys man is in contention to tour with the Lions this summer. Currently, both Will Rowlands and Dafydd Jenkins are almost guaranteed starters, although that will change when Adam Beard is fit.
To matters behind the scrum and Tomos Williams is surely one of the first names on Gatland's team sheet. Yes, the Wales coaches were less than impressed when the 30-year-old took the ball out of a driving lineout which had all the momentum in the dying embers of Wales' autumn defeat to Fiji, but he has been in sensational form for Gloucester.
Williams is head and shoulders above every other Welsh scrum-half and is the type of player who can conjure up try-scoring opportunities out of absolutely nothing. If you look at the lack of experience in the back three, especially with Rio Dyer's omission, then it's a safe bet to pencil in Liam Williams and Josh Adams in the nailed-on category.
Both players have a vast amount of experience and Gatland will hope their presence will lead to aerial solidity and more of a cutting edge out wide. But Wales have problems elsewhere especially at tighthead prop with a serious lack of strength in depth.
With Archie Griffin currently sidelined it is a bit of a lottery between Keiron Assiratti, Henry Thomas and WillGriff John for the number three jersey. It's also anyone's guess as to what centre partnership takes the field at the Stade de France.
Wales have a plethora of talented centres but there is a lack of experience, while Gatland has struggled to find the best balance in midfield.
So there are at least six players who Wales cannot do without if they are to put an end to a barren run of 12 Test matches without a victory, but at the conclusion of the Championship, assuming he is still in post, Gatland will want more clarity on who his first-choice players are in more than six positions.
