Week 15 Booms & Busts: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Davante Adams and Mike Evans deliver huge fantasy playoff performances
In the Lamar Jackson era, the Ravens have excelled when it comes to beating NFC teams. They've only lost twice to the other conference with No. 8 under center — the idea is that those NFC opponents don't see Jackson regularly and have no idea how to defend him on game day.
That narrative was certainly in play Sunday when Baltimore visited the Giants and did whatever it wanted. Jackson had his best fantasy game of the year in Week 15, throwing for five touchdowns and tacking on 65 rushing yards in a glorious 36.10-point afternoon. The Ravens scored the 35-14 victory, even covering the massive 16-point spread.
The ball rarely hit the ground Sunday — Jackson completed 21-of-25 passes for 290 yards and wasn't intercepted. Rashod Bateman (3-80-2) caught two of the touchdowns, and Mark Andrews (2-24-1) had the first of the day. The other scores went to non-playable fantasy options — Justice Hill and Devontez Walker.
That's the fantasy rub with the Baltimore passing game at times — it's a splintered target tree and the volume often isn't there. Zay Flowers (5-63-0) is usually open but lacks the opportunity to be a target hog. It's not uncommon for Jackson to land well under 30 attempts, either. Baltimore has the fifth-lowest pass rate in the league. The idea is to gash opponents with the running game, then rip out their hearts with occasional chunk plays in the passing game.
But with Jackson throwing five touchdowns all outside the 10-yard line, Derrick Henry was the odd man out Sunday. He didn't score a touchdown for the third straight game and had a season-low 67 yards. This goes down as a fluke result, and Henry will surely be needed more against credible opponents Pittsburgh and Houston the next two weeks. But for Henry to reach his fantasy projection, you always need that touchdown deodorant. He wasn't targeted Sunday, and only has 13 catches on the year.
Jackson needs a prove-it game against Pittsburgh next week, too. He's just 2-5 against the Steelers, and struggled in a loss to them a month ago (66.1 rating, just one touchdown). But those are tomorrow's concerns. There's a good chance Jackson carried you to a playoff win here.
It's also worth noting that Jackson is having the beat season of his career (even if it won't be an MVP season). He's up to 34 touchdown passes, against just three picks. He leads the league in QB rating, YPA, touchdown rate and net yards per attempt. His sack avoidance has never been better. Maybe this is the year it carries over into the playoffs.
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Veteran WRs go off
While an in-his-prime Jackson was one of the quarterback stars (only Josh Allen outscored Jackson on the Sunday slate), two back-nine receivers took control of the wideout board. Davante Adams exploded for a 9-198-2 clinic against Jacksonville (easily his best game of the year), and Mike Evans made two end-zone visits against the Chargers.
The Jets aren't going anywhere this year, but Adams has stepped up his play since the bye. He's scored in three straight games, fashioning a snappy 23-373-4 line over that span. The Rams defense is a cushy draw in Week 16. Maybe Aaron Rodgers has some streaming value before this messy season ends.
Evans needed a strong finish to push past 1,000 receiving yards for the 11th straight year, but Sunday's clutch game produced 159 yards, an excellent positive step. He's already punched a Hall of Fame ticket in my eyes. Tampa Bay has been one of the league's best carnival teams in 2024, and Dallas might put up a scoring fight in next week's Sunday night game. Evans is the rare fantasy pick who's never landed in the disappointment file — and he has time to make sure this season ends on a positive note.
Josh Allen dominates again
Sometimes I think there are three keys to winning at fantasy football this year: drafting well, working the waiver wire and avoiding Josh Allen. Buffalo's MVP-in-waiting had another ridiculous day, shredding the Lions for four touchdowns (two by air, two by land) to go with 362 passing yards and 69 rushing yards, racing to the top of the QB board yet again. That's 93.16 fantasy points combined over the last two weeks, the best two-game quarterback sample in fantasy history.
Allen's upside is dreamy but so is his floor. He had two QB1 finishes in September and he's been especially consistent since Week 6: QB5, QB6 QB14, QB7, QB7, QB7, QB3, QB1, QB1 (Monday pending). Only boredom can stop Allen when he faces the Patriots and Jets the next two weeks.
It always feels like Allen does his best running later in the season, and that should carry over into the NFL playoffs, when the games mean the most.
Mixed bag for rest of Bills' passing game
While Buffalo's offense is always routed through Allen, its pass-catching projection is a tricky business. Consider Amari Cooper, who somehow had 14 targets last week (and a 6-95-0 line) then wasn't targeted in the win against the Lions. We've learned to set our fantasy watches by the consistent Khalil Shakir (6-39-1) and the tight ends were useful (Dalton Kincaid had a solid 4-53-0 line), but how could we ever see Ty Johnson catching five passes for 114 yards? Keon Coleman got loose for a 64-yard reception, but he was targeted just twice.
There's a rotation in this pass-catching room; Cooper ran just 15 route against 36 dropbacks, and no one was included on more than two-thirds of the pass plays. Good luck with this roulette wheel.
Star running backs come up short
Allen essentially clinching the 2024 MVP means Saquon Barkley can focus on the Offensive Player of the Year award. Barkley had the rare fantasy dud on Sunday, averaging under four yards a pop and not scoring a touchdown against Pittsburgh. Barkley's touchdowns are always somewhat tenuous, as the Eagles always parcel the short touchdowns to Jalen Hurts (he had another one Sunday). Barkley's 13 scores come from an average of 28.5 yards, and he doesn't have a single plunge from the one-yard line (Hurts has 11).
Henry and Barkley weren't the only veteran backs who stumbled Sunday. Joe Mixon was held to 23 yards on 12 carries against Miami. He didn't score a touchdown either, though a 5-33-0 receiving line helped a little. Mixon has miraculously overcome Houston's poor offensive line most of the year, but lanes weren't available Sunday. His playoff schedule isn't fun, with Kansas City and Baltimore waiting the next two weeks.
Speed Round
• Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins failing against a good opponent, that's not a new story. McDaniel is now 3-15 (hat tip, Joe Dolan) when facing a team .500 or better. Thankfully the remainder of the schedule doesn't include a team with a winning record, though the Niners still look dangerous. Tyreek Hill is symbolic of one of the fantasy themes of the year: it's been a bad season for receiver-heavy building.
• Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, apparently nothing can stop Brian Thomas Jr., the runaway star of this year's rookie receiver class. The key was finally steering into the workload; Thomas has 10, 12 and 14 targets the last three weeks. He's already shown the ability to win with the entire route tree.
• For most of the year, the Lions were slightly muted as a fantasy offense because the defense was finally good, too. But now that injuries have wrecked the Detroit stoppers, the carnival is back in town. Jared Goff has 100 pass attempts and eight touchdown passes the last two weeks; he was averaging 28.3 attempts before this run. Now the injury bug has hit a key offensive player. David Montgomery's season could be over after he suffered a torn MCL, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
• The Detroit window to win is right now, with OC Ben Johnson too good not to get a head coaching job next year. It's also possible Tampa Bay OC Liam Coeh is going to be promoted somewhere; it was impressive to watch the Buccaneers shred a formidable Chargers defense.
• All Jerry Jeudy needed to break out is be free of the Deshaun Watson nightmare. If Watson is clearly out of the 2025 picture, I'll draft Jeudy proactively. But I can't bet on Watson-related things ever again. He's cooked. Here's hoping the Cleveland eggheads finally accept the sunk cost, no matter how embarrassing and painful it is.
• Alvin Kamara was the RB1 through four weeks, but given his size, age and history, it was never a sustainable business model. He's been RB14 since (still solid, not great) and now he has a groin injury and a makeshift offense around him. Kendre Miller might finally be ready for his close up.
• The best thing the Eagles did Sunday was get their primary pass catchers going, with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both absorbing double-digit targets and sailing past 100 yards. It's fine to have a running identify on offense, but if it's an extreme slant, you're capping your upside. The play of Jalen Hurts, not Barkley, will still determine how far the Eagles advance in the tournament.