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Week 15 Care/Don't Care: Without Geno Smith, Seahawks offense (and fantasy football outlook) paints bleak picture

matt harmon
Fantasy analyst
·18-min read

Green Bay ranked dead last in neutral pass rate coming into Week 15. They have really leaned into their diverse and powerful run game led by Josh Jacobs.

That rushing attack was still a focal point in their road win over the Seahawks. Jacobs ran the ball 26 times to 27 pass attempts by Jordan Love and the backup backs had four rush attempts. Jayden Reed had three runs at nine yards per attempt. However, the passing game showed some dynamism with downfield passes, which needs to be part of the equation for the Packers to hit their ceiling.

Love threw deep at the second-highest rate in any game this season at 22.2%, per Next Gen Stats. He was extremely effective overall, with a top-10 yards per completion rate among quarterbacks this week and a 57.1% success rate, the fifth-best game of his career (NGS).

Love threw the ball on average under 2.1 seconds in Week 15. He had some layups behind the line of scrimmage but that also speaks to his shots downfield. Almost all of his vertical passes came on concepts that required him to hit the back foot and uncork the ball quickly to deep routes.

Seattle’s defense has been a strong unit in the second half of the year, particularly defending the run, as they were first in rushing success rate allowed since Week 10 prior to this game. They didn’t allow many explosive carries to the backs and held Jacobs to 3.6 yards per carry. However, they have a clear weakness at outside corner. Green Bay took advantage of that issue routinely with vertical shots to Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. They also drew some critical pass interference plays and Love was decisive in hunting for those in tight coverage, even if the throw wasn’t always open.

Given how Green Bay has shied away from having the passing game be the leading actor at times this season, I wasn’t sure if they were going to take advantage of those issues in the Seahawks defense. The fact that they did is a pretty big development.

The Packers have been a bit of a volatile team all season and some of that has been due to the health of Jordan Love. Over the last month or so, we’ve seen far more of the positives of Love’s game as the rushing attack has kept the offense on schedule. He’s played mostly mistake-free football and attacked downfield on play-action shots. When they’re running the ball with consistency and power up front with Love pushing the ball vertically, they’re one of the most difficult units to stop.

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By “it,” I, of course, mean what I’ve found so tantalizing about this offense all season long: they can beat you in so many ways. One week after a high-flying aerial performance in a loss to the Rams where they largely abandoned the running game, they were more balanced in this win in Detroit.

Not only was James Cook ripping off big plays consistently in this game on his way to 133 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns, the depth backs were huge, too. Ty Johnson was clearly a focal point of the game plan, as he won on several downfield targets designed to exploit the Lions banged-up linebacker group and Ray Davis scored once on his nine touches. Johnson finished as the Bills' leading receiver with 114 yards.

One week after Amari Cooper finished with more air yards (254) than any other pass-catcher this season, he didn’t register a single target against Detroit. That’s because the Bills offense went back to their heavier personnel group with both tight ends finishing top-three among the team in routes run, while both Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins ran more routes than Cooper.

Not one human being can complain about Cooper's usage because the Bills offense was nearly flawless.

Yes, the Lions defense is obscenely banged up at all three levels. That kind of context must be applied to any team that goes against them. However, Buffalo has been doing this to teams all season. No matter how it chooses to attack an opponent, there is a path to efficiency. The fact that Buffalo can win in multiple ways on offense and employ one of the most dangerous multi-phase quarterbacks makes it a frightening outfit.

The Buccaneers have dealt with a litany of unfortunate injuries, but they are still a good solid team that’s never packed it in. As such, there was always a chance they could win at home against the Chargers but I never foresaw such a resounding blowout win. This was a statement win by Tampa Bay.

Week 15 served as a reminder of what the Bucs offense can be when they don’t make mistakes.

Baker Mayfield played an essentially clean game that included just one sack. When this team stays out of negative down-and-distance situations, they can demolish a solid stop unit. Mayfield picked on a Chargers defense that has limited explosive plays with a pair of vertical shots to Mike Evans. Even his touchdown to Jalen McMillan came on a well-designed downfield shot. Mayfield was also lights out underneath, completing all 16 of his passes of under 10 air yards, per Next Gen Stats. Liam Coen has designed one of the best passing games among any offense this year, and when Mayfield is hot, he runs it to perfection.

If you had given me 10 chances to guess which backfield would give us two starting backs in the fantasy football postseason prior to the start of the year, there’s no chance I would have gotten to Tampa Bay. And yet, Week 15 was another piece of evidence that’s exactly what we have in both Bucky Irving and Rachaad White.

I’m running out of superlatives for Bucky Irving’s game. He’s just so electric and efficient on base runs. He amassed 84 yards on between-the-tackle runs and consistently added extra yardage with his own moves. The fact that he had the outing he did against Los Angeles while coming off multiple injuries is just wildly impressive. Even with Irving playing well, Rachaad White still offered 81 yards from scrimmage on 17 touches with yet another receiving score. The Bucs running game is a completely remade unit with Coen at coordinator and several young offensive linemen stepping up.

The Bucs are plenty capable of stealing the NFC South from a Falcons team that beat them twice. Considering they just blew out the best team remaining on their schedule, they looked poised to go on a run to end this season.

The week-long, wall-to-wall media coverage of A.J. Brown’s Week 14 post-game “passing” comment was one of the most ridiculous controversies I can ever remember. Mainly because it was a curt description of the team’s issues but wasn’t in any way inflammatory toward his quarterback — which, of course, was how bad-faith commentators painted it.

However, the biggest reason that this was a stupid controversy was that Brown’s assessment was in no way controversial; the passing game needed to be better than it had been the last month or so because it so obviously can be excellent.

Week 15 was an excellent proof of concept. The Eagles threw all over a good Steelers defense as the offensive line gave Jalen Hurts plenty of time to pass and both wide receivers cleared 100 yards. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for 72% of the team targets. The Eagles are ultra-talented at the pass-catcher spot, and Hurts can get these guys the ball on specific downfield concepts. There’s no reason they can’t approach ceiling outcomes when everything is firing.

Now, some context is important here. T.J. Watt suffered an injury in this game and the Steelers defense is already specifically vulnerable to how the Eagles win on offense. Pittsburgh is the most single-high defense in the league and, therefore, ends up in man coverage quite often on late downs. Hurts was lethal against man coverage in Week 15, completing 11 of 13 for 138 yards and two touchdowns with a season-high 71.4% success rate, per Next Gen Stats.

The Eagles will face their division rivals to close out the season, all three of whom are inside the top 15 in man coverage rate, per Fantasy Points Data. Most importantly, their main competition at the top of the NFC, the Detroit Lions, are the No. 1 man coverage defense in the NFL. With what this Eagles team is capable of when they’re playing to their potential as an aerial attack, the overall strength of the roster and what’s happening to the Lions defense (more on that later) this team should absolutely feel great about their chances to take the conference.

A.J. Brown was right to criticize the passing attack. It can be better. It should be better. What Week 15 showed us is that the “better” is not at all unattainable.

With a critical Week 15 win over a Colts team that embarrassed itself in multiple ways on Sunday, the Broncos now look like a near-lock for the postseason. NFL.com’s playoff predictor gives them a 90% chance of making the playoffs, and they can even put some distance between themselves and the now seventh-seed Chargers with a win on Thursday night.

The 2024 campaign has been an impressive one for a Broncos team that I dramatically underrated coming into the season.

Bo Nix and the offense didn’t have a banner day, and the rookie quarterback specifically had some mistakes he’d love to have back. However, this has largely been an offense that’s outkicked expectations and has leaned into the best stylings of a quarterback who wants to push the ball downfield over the middle. Defensively, they’ve been a top-tier stop unit for the vast majority of the year. They completely demolished the Colts passing game in Week 15, and it’s not the first volatile passing game they’ve sent spinning into a loss.

I’m not quite sure what the ceiling of this Broncos team is as they head toward the playoffs, but they’re without a doubt a unit that deserves to be in the mix. Their win over an immature Colts operation was just another bit of evidence of the gap between Denver and the true pretenders. Even if 2024 isn’t the year of true contention for the Broncos, they have to feel great about the future. This has been a beautifully coached team with what looks like an answer at quarterback and a lot of resources to build the roster in 2025 and beyond. That’s the makings of an objectively good situation.

I rarely call out curious things that commentators say in shows or articles because these folks have a tough job and most of them are extremely good, but not perfect; you try to talk for three hours and not say something silly.

That said, my eyebrows shot toward the ceiling when Cris Collinsworth said, “We have seen some good play out of this Seahawks offensive line, but not tonight,” as backup quarterback Sam Howell was taken down on one of his many sacks of the night.

I’d say this has been one of the worst pass protection groups across the entire NFL, and it’s been an anchor on the ankles of a talented passing game.

What we’ve actually seen is a coaching staff constantly trying to scheme around the pass protection issues and, more importantly, a quarterback covering up for the sins of the protection. If you didn’t know it before this week, seeing Howell take Geno Smith’s spot after a knee injury should make that abundantly evident.

Howell took two sacks soon after that above post went up. He took four total on the night across 19 dropbacks, good for a 22% sack rate. Howell was one of the most egregious sack-eaters in the NFL last season as Washington’s starter because he just doesn’t respond well to pressure. So, he was particularly ill-fit to operate behind this line.

When he wasn’t getting driven to the dirt, Howell completed five of 14 pass attempts with an interception. He threw for 24 yards and lost 21 on sacks. That’s outrageous.

The Seahawks weren’t playing well offensively at any point on Sunday night but Smith’s injury took this offense from inconsistent to done. This offensive line and Howell are a toxic mix. The Packers defense has had some moments this year and their blitz packages have really turned a corner from the early season, but this isn’t an elite group. You can’t have this type of performance against a unit like that.

Smith has his flaws but he’s been keeping the crippling issues up front from becoming something that sinks the unit. If he misses any time at all, we are completely uninterested in the hopes of this offense.

You can find it all over the Lions' stat sheet if you’re looking for a fantastic offensive box score. Jared Goff threw for almost 500 yards and five touchdowns, Jahmyr Gibbs found the end zone in both phases, Amon-Ra St. Brown couldn’t stop snagging passes; the list goes on and on.

However, this was all while Detroit tried to dig itself out of a deficit that stood at 21-7 midway through the second quarter because, while you can find great offensive performances, you can also find a pretty troubling reality in the Lions' Week 15 loss.

The Detroit Lions, as of now, are the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They are a great team. Yet, based on recent games, you just have to wonder how many more losses this defense can bear.

Detroit has significant injury concerns at every level of the defense. Alex Anzalone, Marcus Davenport, Ifeatu Melifonwu, and of course, Aidan Hutchinson, among many other players were already on injured reserve. Run-stopper extraordinaire D.J. Reader has missed multiple weeks with an injury. Then, in this Week 15 loss, both Carlton Davis and Alim McNeill suffered injuries and Dan Campbell said after the game he doesn’t feel good about either playing again this season.

There are cluster injuries and then there’s full-unit devastation. The Detroit Lions are absolutely dealing with the latter.

The Bills are a fantastic offense and as covered above, can beat any team in multiple ways, but do I think that the early-season, uninjured version of the Lions' defense gets dog-walked to the tune of 48 points? No, I do not.

Every season, one team that should otherwise be a contender just becomes an unrecognizable operation due to injuries. Given everything that the Lions are dealing with on defense, I’m afraid they’re trending in that direction. I hope I’m wrong.

Joe Mixon is averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game. That puts him in the same tier as guys like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry in fantasy. I don’t care what the fantasy production says; there is just no comparison when it comes to the season-long output of backs like that versus the running game of the Texans.

All it takes to see the lie in the fantasy production is a simple gander at a stat like success rate. The Texans rank 31st in rushing success rate on the season in the 11 games Joe Mixon has played, per TruMedia. For comparison, both the Ravens and Eagles are top-seven teams in this metric. Houston’s run game has not been a consistently positive force for their offense.

To be clear, this isn’t really a Mixon issue. While he hasn’t been as dynamic a force for his team like Barkley or Henry, he’s been an upgrade over what Houston had in the backfield last season and a strong addition. The fact that this is the case and the run game is almost as useless as it was in 2023 should lead to more difficult discussions.

Overall, through two years, I’d call the rushing scheme in Houston under Bobby Slowik to be pretty bland, and the offensive line has been a mistake-prone unit. The front five has been a problem for most of this year after being a strength, at least on the edge, last year. It’s one of the many reasons that, despite a Week 15 win over a conference opponent, the Texans just don’t feel dynamic enough to make a run in the postseason.

Week 15 was probably a small regression point for Bryce Young but I don’t think that’s the most helpful way to paint it. However, there are a couple of things that Young’s lowly box score should make us reckon with.

For starters, while Young was playing considerably better football in the four games prior to Week 15, it was worth being cautious with the bottom-line results of the offense. Young completed fewer than 60% of his passes and averaged a mediocre 6.5 adjusted yards per attempt. Some big drops and teammate mistakes dampen those stats, but that speaks to the unit's overall health. His individual play was more important than the stats, and Young was good enough in this stretch to raise the bar to average starting quarterback after he was unplayable as a rookie and the first two weeks of 2024.

Young’s passer rating is even worse in this Week 15 loss and he also took a whopping six sacks. However, he still had some positive moments attacking downfield. Despite this performance, I’d still consider his overall body of work of late is still good enough for the team to roll into 2025 with him as the starter. Hopefully, one more dangerous outside wide receiver and another year in the system can get an even better final product for the Panthers offense.

On the Dallas side, its takedown of this Panthers offense is just another reminder that its defense has been much better in the second half of the season. Micah Parsons has been a true game-wrecker for the last month-plus and he was on fire against Carolina. Getting Parsons back in the fold along with several other players has turned what was a disastrous unit to start the year into a solid group.

The Cowboys aren’t going anywhere this year and there’s still a good chance this coaching staff gets blown up in the offseason. However, the way the defense has played the last few games is a nice reminder there are some building blocks on that side of the ball.

Jameis Winston gives and he takes away … literally.

While he gives production to his team’s pass catchers because of his aggressive style of play, those same tendencies can completely take away any chance you have to win when he’s in one of his turnover streaks. He was deep in one such funk on Sunday against the Chiefs.

Winston’s play was so disastrous that the Browns made the completely defensible decision to yank him from the game in the fourth quarter. Before that point of the game, he threw three brutal interceptions and took five sacks. His replacement, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, wasn’t any better but that’s beside the point. Most teams aren’t just going to keep a guy they’ve already determined to be merely a backup quarterback in the game if he can’t stop turning the football over.

Remember that, at one point this season, the Browns made Winston the inactive QB3 and promoted DTR to the main backup quarterback. That’s an important data point.

There’s no doubt that, based on what we’ve seen so far, Winston is a better quarterback than the second-year passer. However, the organization drafted Thompson-Robinson and has long seemed high on him as a player. Winston is a free agent at the end of the season, and even if he makes for a fun watch in spurts, he isn’t their future at the position. Given Winston’s play the last two games, they may elect to get a look at DTR the final few weeks of the season.

If Winston isn’t starting for this Cleveland team, we have no reason to be bullish on their pass-catchers in fantasy football or real-life football, especially if guys like Cedric Tillman and David Njoku return next week to spread out the target tree. Winston’s “live by the sword, die by the sword” playing style may wear out a coaching staff, but it’s the reason guys like Jerry Jeudy have been so productive of late. A Winston benching would fundamentally change how we project this offense.