Having made the UEFA Champions League in 2022/23 with a fourth-place finish, Newcastle United were stymied in their attempts to build on that success in the first full year of new ownership by the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR).

The Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund (PIF), which completed its takeover of the club in late 2021, continue to have lofty ambitions for the Magpies, but the road to getting to where they want to be is one that will take some time to travel, reliant on continued increasing revenue streams and competitive success to allow for greater investment in the on-pitch product.

This season, Eddie Howe’s men look the real deal again, having had to settle for seventh last term, with the club having one foot in the Carabao Cup final after a 2-0 first-leg win at Arsenal on Tuesday night, as well as sitting in fifth, just one point behind fourth-placed Chelsea and looking well positioned to return to European football’s top table again next season if they can maintain their strong form for the remaining 18 games of the Premier League season.

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But PSR remains a thorn in the side of Newcastle, a club who have plans to shake up the established elite and make the so-called ‘big six’ a ‘big seven’, something that will help deliver the greater revenues through success that they require for organic growth.

The aim of PSR is, essentially, to ensure financial prudence and that clubs operate within their means in a sustainable manner. Clubs are permitted to lose £105m over a rolling three-year assessment period, with allowable deductions for such things as investment into infrastructure, investment into the academy and the women’s team, and money spent on community initiatives. Losses attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic were also permitted.

For the 2021/22 and 2022/23 financial years, Newcastle posted £73m losses in each, amounting to £146m over the two years. After allowable deductions of £12m and £14m, respectively, for those two years, Newcastle’s net PSR position was minus £61m and £60m, meaning that they stood at £121m against a £105m target heading into the 2023/24 financial year, which came to an end at the end of June for the Magpies.

According to forecasts presented by football finance expert Swiss Ramble, Newcastle’s player trading, allied with increased revenues from broadcasting, commercial activity, and European football, means that they are in line to post a £7m profit for 2023/24. Should that estimate be correct, then when it comes to the rolling three-year assessment period, the club would be under the PSR £105m threshold by £7m due to them posting a positive net PSR result for the year of £23m when allowable deductions are factored in.

That means that the Magpies will likely fly under the radar when it comes to PSR punishment, although it does highlight how close the club are to the limit and how they will have little room for manoeuvre when it comes to additions unless they engage in player trading.

The picture, however, starts to look a little healthier in the here and now and the current 2024/25 financial year in which clubs find themselves.

The £73m loss from 2021/22 will drop off, meaning that it will be the £73m from 2022/23 and a potential £7m profit from 2023/24 that would lead into the 2024/25 period. That would mean that the club could lose as much as £84m in the current financial year yet remain PSR compliant, although the reality will be that the financial results will be healthier than that.

The greater PSR headroom that the club can start to create with a strong 2024/25 reporting period means that by the time 2025/26 comes along, where the last £73m loss will drop off the three-year assessment period, the club will be in a strong position through tackling heavy losses and having the time to grow revenue streams to support greater levels of investment on the playing side.

But it does mean that they will have to continue to box clever in the market for the remainder of this financial year, and January moves may be limited as a result. The plus side is that there is likely to be greater financial freedom for the club over the course of the next 18 months or so, and if a return to Champions League football can be secured, then that will only serve to further boost what can be spent in the market to solidify Newcastle’s position as part of the Premier League’s elite.