A title race can be full of unpredictable twists and turns but last season was rare, in that the Premier League’s defining moment could be pinpointed exactly, down to the swing of Leon Bailey’s left boot in Aston Villa’s 2-0 win at Arsenal on 14 April.

Earlier that day Liverpool had lost to Crystal Palace at Anfield, and a sense of heady optimism gripped the Emirates before kick-off. Arsenal had not yet lost a Premier League game in 2024 and, with seven games to go, the title was in their hands.

But Villa had beaten Arsenal at Villa Park earlier in the campaign and were the better team again, finally earning their reward when Bailey’s low finish snuck under David Raya in the 84th minute. By the time Ollie Watkins had added a second and the full-time whistle blew, the stadium was almost empty. Everyone silently understood the cost: Manchester City had beaten Luton 5-0 the day before and their momentum felt unstoppable. Arsenal won their last six games, but so did City, who claimed the title by two points.

Villa return to the Emirates this weekend in different circumstances, in January and not in April, without a three-horse title race entering its final furlong, without the same do-or-die pressures that fed Arsenal’s anxiety as that game went on. Villa are not quite the same side, a little more drained and distracted by the Champions League a year later.

And yet this game also has one undeniable parallel with last season’s fixture. There is the same heft of history, a sense that victory is almost essential for Arsenal, that the consequences of another defeat – while not fatal – would signal a tidal shift in the title race that would be almost impossible to halt.

Liverpool play Brentford earlier on Saturday and if they win, they will be seven points clear. Arsenal need to be almost flawless. Mikel Arteta must harness this week’s stirring victory in the north London derby to create some momentum. They have not lost in the league since 2 November but a series of draws have hurt them, and only wins will cut it now.

Recent history proves it. In every season in the modern Premier League era, in this post-Pep age of extreme excellence required to crush the competition and win the title, a giant winning streak has done the damage. Sometimes it comes early in the season but usually it is in the latter half, as the eyes narrow and faces contort in concentration. It requires a series of gritty we-want-this-more-than-you victories mixed in with ruthless, bloodthirsty thrashings, the sort that batter opposition on the pitch and dent the hopes of title rivals looking on.

Premier League winning streaks

Champions' winning runs since Pep Guardiola's first title

23/24: Manchester City won 9 in a row, end of season

22/23: City won 12 in a row, Feb to May

21/22: City won 12 in a row, Nov to Jan

20/21: City won 15 in a row, Dec to Mar

19/20: Liverpool won 18 in a row, Oct to Feb

18/19: City won 14 in a row, end of season

17/18: City won 18 in a row, Aug to Dec

Arsenal need a streak of their own, something that catapults their challenge, that flips a script which has looked written for months now. Liverpool are moving along sedately, unruffled. Arsenal won’t meet them face to face for another four months, but they can shake their opponents from afar with relentless results.

It hasn’t yet happened in the Premier League this season, for any side. Liverpool’s longest winning streak under Arne Slot is only four games. Chelsea managed five. Nottingham Forest won six in a row before this week’s draw with Liverpool, and Newcastle are currently on their own six-game winning streak. Arsenal have only mustered three successive wins.

So perhaps that decisive winning run is still to come. Arsenal can go one of two ways: they can falter without Bukayo Saka, without a regular goalscorer, with so few goals from open play to rely on; or they can start to motor, to build on the derby win, to breathe in the spaces freed up by their FA Cup exit. They can bounce off a couple of new signings in January. They can build a head of steam before Saka returns for the run-in.

A winning run now will not be easy. Arsenal face a flickering Man City at the Emirates in a couple of weeks, before a run of Forest (a), Manchester United (a) and Chelsea (h) in early spring. A potentially history-writing meeting with Liverpool at Anfield is scheduled for 10 May, in what will be their third-from-last game of the season.

Which is why this meeting with Villa already has the sense of a match with title ramifications. It is not just that Arsenal can scarcely afford to slip up – they need to gather pace, string together results, load pressure in Liverpool’s direction to prevent them from gliding untouched to the trophy. They need the kind of winning run every champion team pulls off. And they need it to have already begun.