Why Middlesbrough's Latte Lath replacement policy will be different to Morgan Rogers last year
It looks increasingly likely now that, just as was the case 12 months ago, Middlesbrough will lose their best player in the January transfer window, in what is a huge blow to their promotion aspirations.
Boro would naturally prefer not to sell Emmanuel Latte Lath this month, but as was the case last year with Morgan Rogers, their financial situation - laid bare in the financial accounts released recently - shows just how important player trading is.
Following a model similar to those that have worked so well for clubs like Brighton and Brentford, Boro have identified player trading as a means of boosting revenue. That allows them to reinvest in their squad to stay as competitive as possible in competing with clubs with parachute payments, who are estimated to have a £30-40m financial headstart on other Championship clubs per year. When PSR is factored in, it allows those clubs to carry considerably better or bigger squads - sometimes both.
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The key to such a recruitment policy at Boro is always being willing to sell players at the right time, while being ready and proactive in then replacing them. At Brentford, for example, they sold their star strikers Neal Maupay and Ollie Watkins in consecutive summer transfer windows. Never deterred, they next turned to Ivan Toney, and it was the man from Peterborough who finally fired the Bees to the Premier League.
One thing Boro’s most recent accounts showed is that Steve Gibson continues to back Michael Carrick and the recruitment team headed up Kieran Scott and Chris Jones. As the club brought in £19.8m in transfer fees, they went on to spend £18.8m on buying players. In a year where Gibson invested more than £13m into the club and still saw a loss of £12.4m, he could have used that incoming transfer revenue to offset losses. But with the sales helping ensure the club complied with PSR, Gibson instead continued to prove his ambition and desire to get Boro back to the Premier League.
In terms of replacing key players though, Boro fans might remember that in selling Morgan Rogers to Aston Villa, he ultimately wasn’t replaced at the time. That might naturally make some question whether Latte Lath will be this time around. Word from sources at the club is that he will be - and a lot of work has gone into ensuring there were targets to pursue should a move happen.
That’s where there is one considerable difference between last January’s situation and this. Coming into this month, interest in Latte Lath was expected - with the only surprise really being the source of the only bid that has come in so far. With Rogers, however, Villa’s interest came completely out of the blue - with the forward only really hitting top form in the final month of his shorter-than-expected Boro stay.
There were attempts to replace Rogers in the latter stages of last January’s transfer window. There were numerous enquiries and conversations taking place, but ultimately, nothing came off.
There were financial reasons behind that, as well as footballing decisions - both of which are different this month and should ensure Boro have a much better chance of replacing Latte Lath now, in comparison to Rogers last January.
Last January, Boro found themselves struggling to replace Rogers as the fees being quoted for targets were sky high. The Rogers money gave them the ability to pay the extra money, but Boro took a step back and saw the bigger picture.
Not in the top-six at the time and struggling with injuries, they faced a battle to even make the top six. Had they got in the play-offs, they also knew that at least one of Leeds United and Southampton would join them there. It ended up being both, and while you’d always back yourself to have a chance in the play-offs, the reality was, both sides with parachute payments had stronger squads, and the players ultimately available to Boro in that month weren’t going to swing that dial considerably enough to justify the money spent. Unsurprisingly, Leeds and Southampton rather comfortably dispatched of Norwich and West Brom to meet at Wembley in the richest game in football, with the Saints earning an immediate return to the top flight.
Boro, meanwhile, opted last January to go with what they had and save their money for the summer transfer window. In the remainder of the season, while there was an initial struggle through February that ultimately cost them a top-six spot, they ended the season with just one defeat in 13.
That decision last January then left Boro heading into the summer transfer window in such a strong position. They were able to knock back offers and enquiries for Emmanuel Latte Lath, Rav van den Berg and Hayden Hackney, with the only major departure being the exit of Paddy McNair at the end of his contract. There was also considerable investment again on incoming signings with Boro bringing in the likes of Aidan Morris and Tommy Conway to end the window as one of the division’s top spenders.
In terms of vindication for that decision made, Boro can look no further than Hull City. In a very similar position to Boro last January, they opted to go the other way. They invested considerably in the January window in a bid to push for promotion, despite a similar forecast for them as was at Boro. Even with the signings - a couple of which were players Boro had also enquired about and opted not to pay the money for - Hull also missed out on the play-offs.
The result for them was a difficult summer in which their top-six failures resulted in an unwise management change followed by a rotten summer transfer window in which key players were sold and ultimately inadequately replaced. They’re now battling to save their Championship status this season after gambling on red and landing on black.
In terms of this year though, with Latte Lath looking likely to depart for Atlanta United, the picture for Boro is very different. As well as much more preparation for the eventuality of losing the striker, Boro’s Championship chances warrant a replacement for Latte Lath.
Currently sixth in the Championship after Blackburn’s victory over Portsmouth on Wednesday evening, their play-off hopes are very much in their own hands with 20 games remaining. What’s more, there isn’t a side above or around them in the league table now that, providing they adequately replace Latte Lath this month, they won’t feel they can’t beat when at their best.
You can never guarantee anything in a transfer window - particularly in the winter window which always tends to favour the seller more than the buyer. But Boro have put the groundwork in to prepare for this Latte Lath eventuality. It’s clear to see why they’d push harder this January than last.