What are WNBA Draft options and projections for Paige Bueckers and Kiki Iriafen? Mailbag
January is one of the busiest months on the women’s basketball calendar. Conference play ramps up in college basketball while WNBA free agency talks begin in a few weeks. Unrivaled, the 3×3 league co-founded by WNBA stars Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart, debuts this month.
Readers submitted so many great questions about all three buckets, so considering all the happenings around women’s basketball, I tried to hit all aspects of the sport in our first mailbag of 2025.
What does the staff think players like Paige Bueckers or Kiki Iriafen will do about the draft this year? Would it be possible to see the talent at the top of the draft forgo the draft to come in during the 2026 WNBA season to take advantage of the new CBA? — N’namdi G.
My colleague Sabreena Merchant made a bold prediction on our podcast this week that Bueckers will not declare for the 2025 WNBA Draft. She made the case that, among other factors, Bueckers would be locking herself into a lower rookie-scale deal than she would otherwise sign under a new CBA in 2026 if she turned pro then.
Even so, I still think Bueckers will enter the 2025 WNBA Draft, no matter how UConn fares in the NCAA Tournament. Part of the reason is how competitively fulfilling college basketball still is and understanding that Bueckers may feel ready for another skill-level challenge. For example, it was interesting to hear Caitlin Clark recently discuss in a Time magazine interview and on the New Heights podcast the differences between college basketball and the professional game. She told Time, “Professional players and professional coaches — this is no disrespect to college women’s basketball — are a lot smarter. I love women’s college basketball. But if you go back and watch the way people guarded me in college, it’s almost, like, concerning.” A year later, I wonder if Bueckers will have the same epiphany.
Regarding Iriafen, the USC forward does not have an additional year of eligibility. At this point, the more interesting question about her is whether she will slip a bit in the draft. Notre Dame guard Olivia Miles (assuming she turns pro) serves as a potentially perfect point guard complement to recent Los Angeles Sparks draftees Rickea Jackson and Cameron Brink. Considering how Miles has been playing — career-high 16.9 points, ACC-leading 7.1 assists, and 6.8 rebounds per game with a 47.8 3-point percentage — I’d lean toward her over Iriafen at No. 2.
It feels like the momentum from last year’s women’s basketball season has stalled, despite having better teams, more exciting matchups, and increased talent across the board. What do you think are the reasons for this? How much of this falls on the media’s coverage, and what role do fans play in sustaining that momentum? — Ben. L
This is a super fair question, and there isn’t one definitive way to answer it. But here are two thoughts that came to mind: For starters, the professional game has remained relevant to fans deeper into the calendar than ever before because of a thrilling WNBA Finals, CBA opt-out, coaching turnover, and now Unrivaled. Perhaps the long tail of all that has come at the expense of early and mid-season interest in college basketball, even after a thrilling 2023-24 season.
More broadly, however, we’ll be able to more definitively tackle your question in March and April based on how much interest the women’s NCAA Tournament receives. Keep in mind that the 2023-24 regular season averaged just under 500,000 viewers across games on ESPN and ABC, a stark decrease from the NCAA Tournament ratings. And though it was the most-watched college regular season since 2017-18, ESPN said its growth was only seven percent year-over-year. Its top regular-season game drew 1.6 million viewers (South Carolina versus LSU in late January), but only two regular-season games averaged more than 1 million viewers. This season, UConn-Notre has been ESPN’s most-watched college basketball game, peaking at 915,000 viewers in ESPN’s largest pre-January women’s basketball audience since 2011.
MOST-WATCHED WOMEN’S COLLEGE BASKETBALL GAME THIS SEASON 👏📈#NCAAWBB x @ESPNPR pic.twitter.com/loZBBQUidL
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessWBB) December 14, 2024
I cite the regular-season data to emphasize that it’s a bit too early to talk about significant regression or slowing in women’s college basketball interest. The regular-season numbers we have are closer to last season than one might expect. I don’t think the women’s final will be a shoo-in to be among the top 100 most-watched TV programs like it was in 2024, but buzz should also pick up in February and March.
Of the remaining undefeateds behind UCLA, who is most convincing? — Rich J.
Which are the most interesting “sleeper” teams to pay attention to this season (meaning teams not named USC, UCLA, South Carolina, Notre Dame, Texas, or UConn)? — Kathleen R.
I’ll throw out a sleeper conference to watch now that the calendar has flipped to 2025: the Big-12. Kansas State’s non-conference schedule paled in comparison to others in the Top 25, but the No. 12 Wildcats (15-1) are one of two programs nationally (Texas the other) in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating. They play No. 22 Utah on Wednesday night in only their second Top-25 matchup of the season. Fellow Big-12 schools TCU and Oklahoma State are also worth keeping an eye on.
Ranked @Big12Conference road matchup coming your way
🗓️ 1/8 at #22 Utah
📄 https://t.co/WTJ6p9lJuJ pic.twitter.com/QOh3gzrJ9T
— K-State Women’s Basketball (@KStateWBB) January 6, 2025
Ohio State has long-term sleeper potential and is one of the five remaining undefeated programs. The Buckeyes are off to a 14-0 start as their depth and style of play continue to overwhelm opponents. Oregon transfer Chance Gray has been impressive, averaging a career-best 16 points per game in her first year in Columbus, and the explosiveness of Freshman of the Year candidate Jaloni Cambridge make this year’s Buckeyes especially dangerous. The beginning of their conference slate has some games to watch (circle the matchup against fellow undefeated program Maryland on Jan. 23), but how Ohio State truly stacks up against this year’s elite competition will become more apparent down the stretch. Five of the Buckeyes’ final eight games are against ranked opponents.
Do you think Nneka (Ogumike) will stay with the Storm? — Bryan R.
As WNBA free agency is starting, what big moves do you predict will happen? — Brad T.
My answer will reveal why I looped these two questions together. If I’m predicting one bold move, it’s that Ogwumike moves on from the Seattle Storm after one season and signs with the Golden State Valkyries to finish out her career. Playing alongside Jewell Loyd and Skylar Diggins-Smith was central to Seattle’s pitch to her last offseason. Now, with Loyd’s future with the Storm in question, Ogwumike might be inclined to look elsewhere. Golden State represents another well-resourced franchise — an expansion team looking to create a strong foundation for years to come. Perhaps Golden State can lure Ogwumike with this pitch: With the Valkyries, the nine-time All-Star will be the fulcrum on both ends of the floor. She could shape a culture that would outlast her playing career whenever she decides to retire by playing with a franchise willing to invest in top-flight player experience. Plus, she could stay on the West Coast and earn a maximum salary.
Will be covering the Unrivaled 3v3 league? What do you expect from the new league and who do you think will excel in the format? — Erik P.
Yes! We will definitely be covering Unrivaled, and we’ll have a number of stories coming out in, and around, its launch next week. Players are excited for its inaugural season and the early reviews on the set-up are positive. WNBA veteran and Mist Basketball Club guard Courtney Vandersloot said the league has been treating players “like first-class athletes.” Game play should be fast-paced and free-flowing. Players will be tested constantly defensively, as it’s difficult to help in the format without allowing open shots for others.
Rise and Shine it’s BASKETBALL CLUB TIME⏰ pic.twitter.com/DWYpMe3bi7
— Unrivaled Basketball (@Unrivaledwbb) October 24, 2024
Versatile wings and forwards should excel in the format. Think Satou Sabally, Rhyne Howard, Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier. Players with past FIBA 3×3 experience should also have success early because of their familiarity with the format (though there are differences between halfcourt Olympic 3×3 and modified fullcourt Unrivaled 3×3) and knowledge of what it takes to be successful in 3×3.
Can you explain the conference realignment for dummies? Why did it happen, and how do you think it affects the best teams? I know this is a can of worms question but you all mention it a lot and I’d love more context. — Anonymous U.
Everyone is still adjusting to the fact that Cal and SMU are now playing in the Atlantic Coast Conference, and that UCLA and Oregon are conference foes, only now in the Big Ten. Traditional rivalries have broken up across college sports, including women’s basketball. The short explanation is that in a quest to maximize TV revenue (and specifically revenue generated because of college football), schools around the country changed conferences. In 2023, ’s Stuart Mandel detailed more than a century of realignment across college football — the changes largely apply to college basketball too — and here is a data visualization I come back to often that illustrates all the recent moves.
Two quick hitters to close out:
What ACC teams emerge to challenge Notre Dame? — Warren B.
With all due respect to undefeated Georgia Tech, Duke is still the Fighting Irish’s biggest challenger.
What team in the WNBA will take the biggest step forward and which team do you think will take a step back this next season? — N’namdi G.
Take this with a grain of salt ahead of free agency. The biggest step forward: the Indiana Fever. Biggest step back: the Connecticut Sun or Seattle Storm.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
Seattle Storm, USC Trojans, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Kansas State Wildcats, Ohio State Buckeyes, Connecticut Huskies, WNBA, Women's College Basketball
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