We’re down to one undefeated team in Division I basketball as the final month of conference play nears. While a handful of teams have run the top of the game this year, many teams have been on their heels, nipping and chasing for an opportunity to climb into that upper echelon.

UCLA, South Carolina, Notre Dame and USC currently hold those spots in this week’s bracket (as they have most of the season). I expect those teams to hold steady, as they’ve been the best four teams in the country. However, as we saw last season, conference tournament runs or early exits can create changes at the top.

Halfway through regular-season play, who still has a chance to take a No. 1 seed before the year is done?

What Makes a No. 1 Seed?

One of the most important factors that the selection committee has repeatedly shown to value at the top, and throughout the bracket, is closing strong.

Last season, Stanford had a great case as a No. 1 seed, but it stumbled late against Arizona. Without that loss, there would’ve been an easier case to make for the Cardinal still holding a No. 1 seed after a rematch with USC in the Pac-12 championship. (A reminder that we’re not getting one of those this year.)

Another key aspect: minimal bad losses. That seems self-explanatory, but to add some context to that, last season only Iowa and USC had double-digit losses, and each team had just one non-competitive loss (Iowa against Indiana, and USC against Utah). In 2023, Virginia Tech was the only No. 1 seed that suffered a double-digit defeat before the bracket was built. None of the No. 1 seeds in 2022 had a double-digit defeat on its resume before the NCAA Tournament.

Holding any sort of win over other teams competing for similar positioning matters, as does a loss to those same programs.

In position

Texas

While the Longhorns have two double-digit losses, those came against two of the top-four seeds in our bracket (a conference loss to South Carolina and an overtime loss to Notre Dame). Texas also boasts one of the strongest resumes in the country (beating Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Maryland).

The Longhorns routinely have proven they can beat Quad 1 competition. However, to wind up with a No. 1 seed, Texas needs to prove itself in one of those marquee games with upcoming opportunities against LSU and a rematch with South Carolina. SEC tournament play will be key, but having a plethora of wins over teams vying for No. 1 and No. 2 seeds is significant. With its fate still in its own hands, will Texas find a top-four groove in the last stretch of SEC play?

UConn

The Huskies always find a way to put themselves in the picture. They’re propelled by strong victories over Ole Miss and North Carolina, which only look better as the season’s gone on.

Though Connecticut took lumps in close losses to Notre Dame and USC in non-conference play, it’s dominated the Big East. Most importantly, the Huskies take on Tennessee and South Carolina in rare nonconference February games. An additional Quad 1 win over Tennessee would go a long way to enhance their resume, as the Big East has less to offer in conference play.

As we saw with Notre Dame last season, a mid-season marquee game can shift the course of the season, and already at 20-2 and 2nd in the NET, a signature win late could prove substantial.

LSU

The Tigers are one of the most exhilarating fourth-quarter teams I’ve ever seen in basketball. I’ll never forget Thursday night’s 107-100 win against Oklahoma. Holding significant wins over Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Oklahoma in SEC play (plus a strong win over NC State), LSU remains poised to fight for a No. 1 seed.

Though LSU lost their lone matchup against South Carolina, beating Oklahoma was key to building momentum toward the conference tournament. If the Tigers can keep stacking Quad 1 wins down the stretch of conference play, they can keep climbing.

A mid-February meeting with Texas could decide who holds the cards to own the top No. 2 seed in the bracket, and there’s an opportunity to steal a line if the SEC winds up with two No. 1 seeds (a possibility). Or LSU could earn it outright by winning the SEC tournament.

In play

Kansas State and TCU

Kansas State and TCU are in unique positions. TCU has a stronger resume at this point, but both teams face a similar quandary due to wins in the Big 12 meaning less bracket-wise than wins in the other three power conferences. On Feb. 5, TCU and Kansas State play in their lone conference matchup. Stakes are high as neither can really afford a loss. What’s needed for both teams?

• South Carolina and Notre Dame to continue to run the table

• Win the head-to-head

• Win the Big 12 tournament

Duke

The Blue Devils benefit from playing one of the toughest schedules in the country (fifth hardest) and accruing significant wins over Oklahoma and Kansas State. Duke has four losses, but only one was by double digits (to South Carolina) and it was a fairly close game, which is reflected in Duke’s strong position in the NET rankings. However, losing to solid USF team (a Quad 2 loss) makes it more difficult for the Blue Devils to take on any losses outside the top 10-15 in the NET.

Duke’s to-do list?

• Beat North Carolina in their rematch

• Beat NC State

• Defeat Notre Dame in the regular season on the road or in the ACC tournament

Ohio State

Similar to Kentucky (see below), the Buckeyes have yet to write the most influential chapters of their season. We’ll learn a great deal about Ohio State as it heads to Los Angeles next week to take on USC and UCLA. Ohio State has stacked solid wins, but it lacks a signature win outside of beating Maryland (it’s worth noting that Shyanne Sellers missed that game due to injury), and this is the first opportunity to prove itself against the Big Ten’s top two teams.

• Beat either USC and UCLA

• Close the season with minimal losses to offset losing to Penn State

• Pick up signature wins in the Big Ten tournament

Needs luck

Maryland

The good news for the Terps is they have a signature win against Duke, which is also vying for top billing in March. Maryland has already taken on USC, UCLA and Ohio State, with two close losses, and a double-digit loss to UCLA. However, Sellers’ absence due to injury matters, considering her impact as Maryland’s best player. Maryland doesn’t play either L.A. school again this season, so how can it find itself into a No. 1 seed still?

• Convincingly close out the Big Ten schedule

• Beat Ohio State in the final regular-season game

• Do not go out quietly in the Big Ten tournament

North Carolina

North Carolina doesn’t have a bad loss, but the four-loss Tar Heels need to go on a lengthy run to keep the door open for a No. 1 seed. North Carolina can probably afford another close loss to a strong team in ACC play. But after losing close games to two of the top conference teams (Notre Dame and Georgia Tech), UNC needs to close the gap will be key. Some ways to do that?

• Defeat NC State

• Sweep the Tobacco Road series

• Beat Notre Dame in the ACC tournament

NC State

The Wolfpack started the season with a difficult schedule while replacing two veteran frontcourt players from last season’s Final Four team. It was understandable that the Wolfpack incurred some tough losses. Double-digit losses to South Carolina and LSU can be forgiven with a strong close to the season. NC State’s marquee win so far is against Ole Miss, but it can quickly change its fortunes in February.

NC State’s next six games: Duke, at Florida State, Miami, at North Carolina, at Georgia Tech, Notre Dame.

If NC State handles this gauntlet flawlessly, with a close loss, or even an undefeated slate before going toe-to-toe with Notre Dame, the selection committee could hold the Wolfpack in higher regard at the start of March.

Dark horse

Florida State

Can Florida State turn a massive statement win (an absurd buzzer-beater to beat North Carolina) into seeding momentum? That win already pushed the Seminoles higher. This was Florida State’s first Quad 1 win of the season in five tries, and its close loss to Stanford was understandably a stylistic defeat, but it’s tough to put on a resume.

Florida State needs to happen, but Ta’Niya Latson and KK Timpson certainly have me pondering the possibilities. Here’s how they can ascend:

• Beat NC State at home

• Don’t lose to an unranked opponent

•Beat Notre Dame or Duke, or beat both in the final two games of ACC regular-season play

Kentucky

The Wildcats are the definition of a wild card in Kenny Brooks’ first season in Lexington. Kentucky is 18-2 with a strong win over Alabama and a signature win over Vanderbilt. But the Wildcats have played just three Quad 1 games so far. Losing to North Carolina in a blowout hurts, but falling to Texas A&M is the biggest question on Kentucky’s resume.

Kentucky controls its fate, taking on five of the top eight SEC teams in February before facing South Carolina on the road to close the SEC regular season. The Wildcats’ path?

• Assert itself as a contender in the SEC with a statement win over Texas or LSU — or both

• Beat South Carolina, or play competitively in a loss and pick up more wins in the SEC tournament

The Athletic

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

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