The 2024-25 college season continues to provide absolute gems of chaos and enjoyment. Only three Division I teams remain undefeated, and seven have just one loss. That handful could dwindle even further before the weekend’s over.

These upcoming games might make up the most impactful slate until conference tournaments. Every game matters, but for snagging some marquee victories, a plethora of opportunities exist in power conferences for seed line maneuvering.

Some pivotal games to watch this week (all games ET):

• Utah at TCU, 7:30 p.m. Friday

• USC at Indiana, noon Sunday

• Seton Hall at Connecticut, 1 p.m. Sunday

• Ole Miss at Mississippi State, 3 p.m. Sunday

• Tennessee at Vanderbilt, 3 p.m. Sunday

• Oklahoma at South Carolina, 3 p.m. Sunday

As we discussed last week, the Big 12 has the potential to earn a No. 1 seed, but TCU and Kansas State likely will need few losses in league play. Utah, however, has the potential to play spoiler and work into an eventual hosting position if it can snag a win against TCU. The Utes don’t face the Horned Frogs or Wildcats again in the regular season, so unless they want to put their fate in the hands of Big 12 tournament results, adding another resume win here would be massive.

Indiana’s loss at Butler early in the season has significantly impacted the Hoosiers’ NET ranking, rated as a Quad 3 loss. Though the actual equation isn’t publicly available, by tracking the tables, it’s clear a “bad loss” can damage a team’s tournament resume. Indiana still has a path for hosting, but beating one of the Big Ten’s top four teams will be a must, and the Hoosiers have a huge opportunity when USC comes to Assembly Hall.

Seton Hall hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2016, but it’s crept into the picture with a strong start to Big East play. Though I wouldn’t expect a win over UConn, keeping this game close could go a long way toward impressing the selection committee. The Pirates played USC tight for much of their early-season meeting before the Trojans ran away with it. Margin of victory plays an integral part in NET rankings, and it’s a subjective aspect of how committee members might value competitiveness in games.

This weekend is also massive for the SEC, with a late afternoon on Sunday loaded with high-quality games. Eight SEC teams rank in the NET’s top 20, with a ninth team (Vanderbilt) just outside that group (before Thursday’s games). The biggest thing I’ll be looking to see is whether an SEC hierarchy gets established.

An argument could be made that this is the country’s strongest conference, but it will be interesting to see how the selection committee views a conference if it gets torn apart by attrition. There are a multitude of NCAA Tournament teams here, but how things shake out in the SEC for hosting in March will make this season a fun case study. Vanderbilt has faced an absolute gantlet to open conference play, and this will be its one shot at in-state rival Tennessee. Vanderbilt doesn’t have a “bad loss” on its resume, but picking up its first Quad 1 win of the season would be key.

Blind resume: Vying for a No. 2 seed

Let’s try a new game called “The Blind Resume Test,” looking at resumes without revealing the team.

Though shake-ups can still occur this season, we have a good idea of the top eight teams that will occupy the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds. However, the rest of the hosting teams are a bit up in the air. It’s been jarring to see the amount of variability from teams that grade out in the top five as opposed to in the mid-30s. NET ranking doesn’t encapsulate everything, but it gives us a fun jumping-off point to dissect teams. Let’s get into it and look at teams that look similar on the surface but have big discrepancies in my bracket.

What stands out most? The sheer difference between strength of schedule, and that the two teams with the lowest strength of schedule rank significantly higher in the NET, which is why I wanted to dive into this.

Teams B and D have the best victories by far, and Team C doesn’t have a Quad 1 or 2 win. Why is there such a sizable difference in NET despite how much stronger the schedule and victories have been for Teams B and D? What does that mean?

Margin of victory is extremely significant. Teams A and C have dominated the field with respect to the margins. Team A’s only loss was a close game on a neutral floor to Duke, which is projected as a No. 3 seed. Team A has won every other game by double digits. Fourteen of those wins have been by 20 points or more, including its lone Quad 1 victory in a commanding performance at Utah. If you haven’t guessed it yet, Team A is Kansas State.

All of Team C’s losses were by single digits, with two of those to top-30 NET teams (Texas and Oklahoma State). However, I have Team C at 20th on the seed list. The NET matters and is perhaps its strongest case for a higher ranking outside competitive losses, but until this team actually wins one of those games, it’s harder to envision it hosting. Ready to guess? That’s West Virginia.

Team B has better wins than West Virginia, beating Oklahoma and Utah. However, its NET dropped significantly due to 20-point losses to Kentucky and South Carolina. I wouldn’t consider those “bad losses” concerning its resume, but it matters greatly in the NET comparisons. Ultimately, I view these teams as fairly close from a tournament standpoint; West Virginia is not as high as the NET indicates, and Team B is not as low as it indicates. This team? Mississippi State.

I know what you’re thinking: “But Mark, who is Team D?”

I’ll spare the suspense. It’s Maryland!

The Terps have the best resume of the four teams, which is why they’re the highest No. 3 seed. Why is Maryland’s NET so low?

Margin of victory strikes again. Maryland’s lone loss was to projected No. 1 seed USC, which is the best kind of loss on a resume, and it was a tight game until the end.

However, Maryland has not been blowing out teams the way Kansas State and West Virginia have been, which causes the lower NET ranking. It’s important to note that coach Brenda Frese’s squad has played a significantly strong schedule, but winning close against a solid team (Quad 2 and 3) doesn’t do much to improve metrics.

From a pure basketball sense, the Terps need a full 40 minutes of competitiveness. If their recent win against Minnesota had ended at the 37-minute mark, when Maryland had a 20-point lead before allowing Minnesota a 20-6 run to cut it close, the Terps would’ve jumped quite a few spots in the NET. These things can be key in separating a deep pool of teams fighting to get on the Nos. 2 and 3 lines.

I have Maryland as the ninth-best team on the seed list because of what it has proved against some of the nation’s top teams, but it’s capable of placing higher. We’re going to learn a lot about the Terrapins as they enter perhaps the most brutal week of basketball anyone in the country faces, taking on Texas, Ohio State and UCLA in a six-day stretch.

Coretta Scott King Classic

Why not follow up a wild weekend of league play with a brand-new midseason nonconference doubleheader?

In case you forgot, the Coretta Scott King Classic was announced in September, and oh, hey, it’s already here. Nationally televised on Fox on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, UCLA will take on Baylor at 3 p.m. (ET), followed by Maryland and Texas at 5:30 p.m.

This game has sizable implications for the NCAA Tournament. As we talked about with the Big 12 last week, it’s in an interesting spot as the “weakest” of the four power conferences. Baylor snagging a game against the No. 1 team in the country could open the door for more in the Big 12’s postseason.

The winner of Maryland-Texas could become the deciding factor in whether the other gets moved to a higher or lower seed line in March.

Mid-major check-in

• UTSA is 15-2 and 6-0 in American play after a nail-biter against Memphis. The Roadrunners haven’t made the NCAA Tournament or won 20 games since the 2008-9 season, and Karen Aston’s squad is primed to do both. This group is gritty defensively, and Jordyn Jenkins is one of the most well-rounded and efficient scorers in mid-major basketball. Watch UTSA take on UAB on Saturday.

• Purdue Fort Wayne recorded its first 20-win season in over a decade last season, which was coach Maria Marchesano’s third with the program. The Mastodons boast conference wins over typical Horizon League powers Green Bay and Cleveland State, and they also gave Kentucky a heck of a game in November. They have never been to the Big Dance, but that might change this year.

• There’s a five-way tie for first in the West Coast Conference, with each team at 5-2. New members Washington State and Oregon State immediately made an impact, but Portland, Gonzaga, San Francisco and St. Mary’s also showed their mettle early. The WCC is an absolute grind right now with no clear front-runner, but plenty of teams can win any given game. If you’re not tapped into WCC hoops on ESPN+, change that.

The Athletic

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

USC Trojans, Mississippi State Lady Bulldogs, Indiana Hoosiers, Kansas State Wildcats, Maryland Terrapins, UCLA Bruins, South Carolina Gamecocks, Baylor Bears, Iowa Hawkeyes, West Virginia Mountaineers, Connecticut Huskies, Texas Longhorns, Women's College Basketball, Bracket Central

2025 The Athletic Media Company