As we enter the final week and change leading up to Selection Sunday, I want to take a moment to highlight some teams that have flown under the radar. A multitude of programs have had special seasons to varying degrees, but particularly in the mid-majors, quite a few teams are putting together landmark seasons. While they may not wind up in the Big Dance, they’re fighting for the chance to play their way in, and could crash the party.

Montana State

The Bobcats are 27-3, outright Big Sky champs, and are enjoying the most successful season of Tricia Binford’s 20 year career in Bozeman, Mont., and program history as a whole. Sporting the 16th stingiest defense in the country, per CBB Analytics, the Bobcats are in prime position to return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2022 after signature wins over Northern Arizona, Florida Gulf Coast, Troy and Eastern Carolina.

Purdue-Fort Wayne

The Mastodons have been a D1 school since only 2002 and didn’t have their first winning season until 2011. Maria Marchesano has secured a second straight 20-win season in Fort Wayne, Ind., tying the program record for wins (23) while jostling with Green Bay and Cleveland State for control of the Horizon League. The Mastodons need to win the conference tournament to make it to the Big Dance for the first time, but this season has already been a massive success.

Southeastern Louisiana

One of my favorite random stats is that Southeastern Louisiana has more wins in the American Athletic Conference than some teams in the AAC, having won three games against the league in nonconference play. Sitting at 25-4, the Lions are enjoying the most successful season in program history, putting together their best run in Southland play (19-1) since joining in 1997. When Ayla Guzzardo took over in Hammond, La., in 2017, the program hadn’t been a winning season in almost a decade. Make that four straight for the Lions now, with a great shot at their second appearance in the NCAA Tournament

Now onto examining other conference’s bubble teams:

ACC

Locks: California, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame

On the bubble: Virginia Tech

Spotlight on: Virginia Tech

The Hokies are currently my last team in the bracket, sliding into the First Four and playing into an opportunity for a No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchup.

It’s been a rocky end to the regular season for Virginia Tech, picking up a strong win over tournament-bound Cal, but then losing to Boston College in overtime. Another overtime loss to Stanford the week prior was also a tough blow to locking in an at-large bid.

The Hokies drew Georgia Tech in the No. 8 vs No. 9 matchup for the ACC tournament, and they need to win to shore up another quality win, and a trip to the NCAA Tournament. The Yellowjackets lost four of their last five games to close the regular season. …  Coach Megan Duffy’s squad is in a prime position to make the most of its trip to Greensboro.

Big East

Locks: Creighton, UConn

On the bubble: Marquette, Seton Hall

Spotlight on: Seton Hall

The Pirates need some luck to get off the bubble, but they can also make an impact on their standing in the Big East tournament. Slated as the No. 3 seed, Seton Hall has a first-round bye and will take on the winner of Xavier and DePaul, with the opportunity to move on and most likely play Crieghton in the next round.

Seton Hall has been competitive with the Bluejays but unable to take away a win in their two meetings during the Big East regular season. If it can put together a full four quarters in Uncasville, Conn., they’ll secure a Quad 1 win that’s been out of grasp so far this season.

Big Ten

Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, UCLA, USC

Projected in: Iowa, Indiana, Oregon, Minnesota

On the bubble: Nebraska, Washington

Spotlight on: Minnesota and Washington

There might not be a more directly impactful game on the bubble than the first-round meeting in the Big Ten tournament between the Huskies and Golden Gophers.

As strong as Minnesota came on during Big Ten play, its California road trip to end January and start February led to a 2-7 regular-season finish. It’s worth noting that the Gophers still hung tight and were much more competitive than their record indicates, but the losses added up, and closing the year poorly hurts their odds of making the Big Dance as an at-large.

On the opposite side, the Huskies closed with four straight wins, including three over projected tournament teams (Nebraska and Oregon) and beating Minnesota in Minneapolis. Both teams need to stack any possible wins, but Washington has a cleaner resume at the moment and a stronger case because of how it finished the season.

Big 12

Locks: Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Utah, West Virginia,

Projected in: Iowa State

On the bubble: Arizona, Colorado

Spotlight on: Arizona and Colorado

These two bubble teams will likely face off in the Big 12 tournament. Colorado takes on No. 16 seed Houston in the first game (an opponent the Buffalos recently beat by 23 points) for the right to play No. 8 seed Arizona in the second round.

The Wildcats lost a close game in Boulder at the beginning of February, but the Buffaloes have gone 2-5 since that game while Arizona has gone 5-2.

Injuries have played an unfortunate role, but the winner of this game has the opportunity to cast aside some of the doubts put forth by the regular season.

SEC

Locks: Alabama, Kentucky, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt

Projected in: Mississippi State

Spotlight on: Mississippi State

I wouldn’t put any SEC on the bubble currently: Florida’s out of the picture without a run to the SEC championship game, and Mississippi State’s far enough in that I’d be surprised by the Bulldogs dropping out of the NCAA Tournament picture.

However, the Bulldogs actually have a great shot at boosting their seeding, taking on Missouri in the first game and playing for the right to compete with Ole Miss in the second round.

This gives coach Sam Purcell’s team a great opportunity to avenge its Quad 2 loss to the Tigers from the end of January. Mississippi State played Ole Miss tight during its one rivalry game, losing 71-63 to the Rebels. Winning two games in the SEC tournament could take the Bulldogs from the No. 8/No. 9 line to a much easier path to making a run in the NCAA Tournament as a No. 7 seed.

Midmajors

Locks: Richmond

Projected in: Albany, Ball State, Columbia, Fairfield, Fairleigh Dickinson, FGCU, Gonzaga, Grand Canyon, Green Bay, Hawaii, Harvard, High Point, James Madison, Lehigh, Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, Montana State, Norfolk State, North Carolina A&T, North Carolina-Greensboro, South Dakota State, Southeastern Louisiana, Southern, Tennessee Tech, UNLV, UTSA

On the bubble: Belmont, Drake, Murray State, Portland, Princeton, South Florida

Spotlight on: Missouri Valley Conference

The MVC is pretty unlikely to be a bid-stealer on Selection Sunday, but it’s extremely close with most of the upper tier of the league on the tournament bubble.

Missouri State is currently the league’s automatic bid, but it’s in a three-way tie for first with Drake and Murray State (2-0 against Drake, 1-1 against Murray State). To make things even more intriguing, Belmont and Illinois State are tied for fourth place, just one game behind first.

With two games left in league play before the MVC tournament next week, things can get pretty spicy!

Illinois State’s at Missouri State on Thursday, with the potential to cause a big swing in the standings and conference tournament seeding.

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