Worry about an all-time title race, not marginal refereeing decisions

Fine margins. A little more than five years ago at the Etihad, John Stones belted a clearance into Ederson and then, as it rebounded towards the line, lunged to hook the ball away. Had it gone in? Liverpool appealed. The referee Anthony Taylor looked at his wrist monitor. No goal. The Goal Decision System ruled the whole of the ball had been 11.7mm from crossing the whole of the line. Liverpool were denied an opener, went on to lose 2-1 and their lead at the top of the table was cut to four points. Pep Guardiola went on to win his second Premier League title.

In that same game, Sadio Mané had a shot that hit the inside of the post and stayed out, while Leroy Sane’s winner hit the inside of the post and went in. In either case, 11.7mm might have proved decisive, changing the angle at which the ball came off the upright, but it was the goalline technology that is remembered. Refereeing decisions have a habit of lingering in the mind (even when, despite what some claimed in the moment, using shadows and theoretical geometry and pouring scorn on ballistic experts with the conviction of Jim Garrison dismissing the magic bullet, the decision is manifestly correct).

Sunday’s 1-1 meeting between Liverpool and Manchester City was thrilling and exhausting. City had the better of the first half and Liverpool much the better of the second. Luis Díaz was brilliant but missed three great chances in quick succession. Yet late on Jérémy Doku had a shot that hit the inside of the post and bounced out; 11.7mm to the left and it probably would have cannoned in. And yet somehow, as so often, we end up with most of the post-match discussion being about a refereeing decision.

As City defended a corner in injury time, the ball dropped between Doku and Alexis Mac Allister. The Belgian raised his boot and played the ball, his boot carrying on into the Argentinian’s chest. Was it a foul? It might have been: that type of incident, when a defender follows through into a attacker having made contact with the ball, is a grey area. Had Michael Oliver given a penalty, the video assistant referee system would almost certainly not have overturned it. As it was, Oliver didn’t give it and VAR decided that no clear and obvious error had been committed.

Jürgen Klopp claimed: “If the ball is not there, he kills him,” which is inflammatory and obfuscatory; a lot of things that happen elsewhere on the pitch are penalties (but not murders) if the ball isn’t there. Still photos were posted on social media, which as a decision-making tool is useless: there is no doubt Doku’s foot made contact with Mac Allister’s chest, or that it hurt; what matters is force and angle, how much ball was taken and, fundamentally, the referee’s instinct given the lack of clarity in the application of the law in such circumstances. Some found precedents – largely pointless: this is not a court making a considered decision with an appeals process; and some cited when the incident came, as though the threshold for penalties is higher in injury time than earlier in the game, which is also nonsense.

Some incidents are just grey. If Oliver had given a penalty: fine. He didn’t; also fine. In this case, there is no obvious right or wrong. But even if there were, referees sometimes make mistakes, as Paul Tierney had the previous week in giving possession to Liverpool in an uncontested drop-ball late on at Nottingham Forest even though Callum Hudson-Odoi had been in possession when the game was stopped for a head injury. Get on with it.

Perhaps the worst aspect of VAR has been the way it seems to have persuaded fans and pundits there can be absolutely clarity over every decision and that every referee will get everything 100% correct. It’s just not the case – but it is, of course, much easier to blame external errors or wild conspiracies than to accept failings on the part of your own team (or even, perhaps, that much of sport is chaos that can’t really be explained).

It’s depressing that an extraordinary game of football like Sunday’s can be reduced in the analysis – and this piece is now also guilty – to arguing over a refereeing decision. This was about Liverpool in the second half showing that this City are vulnerable to direct running, that the old Guardiola fallibility to balls played in behind the defensive line is more pronounced this season.

Liverpool may come to regret not putting clear water between themselves and City when they had the chances to do so, and that’s not really down to one borderline refereeing call. Arsenal are top on goal difference, but they were far from convincing in beating Brentford 2-1 on Saturday (in another game when a close refereeing decision, the non-award of a second yellow card to Kai Havertz for diving before he scored the winner, became frustratingly dominant).

With 10 games to go, three teams are separated by a single point. It’s probably still advantage City, but this could be one of the all-time great title races. And that’s not really to do with any refereeing.

• This is an extract from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, a weekly look from the Guardian US at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Have a question for Jonathan? Email soccerwithjw@theguardian.com, and he’ll answer the best in a future edition