This is the worst Cardiff City defence in a generation – if it's not fixed it will take them down
Purely on numbers, there is a strong argument to suggest this is the worst Cardiff City defence in a generation.
No Bluebirds team has ever conceded more than a half-century of goals after 31 games in the two-decades-long Championship era, but the 7-0 hammering at Elland Road last week saw City raise their bats, with a further two conceded at Fratton Park on Tuesday moving them on to 53 not out with 15 games still to go.
The gripe for many supporters in recent seasons has been the lack of goals scored. So blunt has Cardiff's attack been for so long, the constant clamour for more attacking football has been the heart of the conversation, but this year it's been at the other end where they have been too far below par.
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Only one team, Portsmouth with 55, have conceded more goals this season than Cardiff, an alarming statistic that must be addressed and corrected for this crucial run-in of fixtures which will determine in which division they play their football next season.
What is the reason behind this alarmingly leaky defence? Everyone has their reasons. Are there enough leaders, particularly in the back line? Where are the Sean Morrison, Sol Bamba, Lee Peltier-type figures? Perhaps Perry Ng is something akin to that mould, but he's been out of the side of late. Calum Chambers was likely brought in to fill some of that void, but has had to do so from midfield in recent weeks – to good effect on the whole, it must be said.
For many supporters it's the make-up of that midfield ahead of defence. Not scoring enough goals? The midfield is too negative. Conceding too many goals? The midfield selection is too negative. It feels far too simplistic a narrative, but it's the hill many are dying on.
There are other things, too, with defenders playing out of position, Andy Rinomhota at right-back — he has admittedly done well in this makeshift role but has shown positional naivety at times, too — while Joel Bagan has had to slide into a centre-back role on occasion, too. Sign up to our daily Cardiff City newsletter here.
Not learning from mistakes is also in the melting pot — how often have Cardiff conceded that same goal, again and again, whereby an opposition winger is played in behind the full-back only to square it to a striker to tap home? Inexperience has played its part as well, which Omer Riza alluded to this week. Rinomhota has not played right-back in the Championship before this season, Will Fish has never played in the Championship, nor had Jesper Daland before this term.
This is the potential drawback of reducing the average age of your squad, there are often players learning on the job but it is also a necessary evil if clubs want value pumped into the club and to reap the financial rewards down the line.
There have been heavy, heavy losses which have served to exacerbate that number, too. The 7-0 and 5-0 drubbings by top-two Leeds and Burnley respectively have not helped the goals against column. In both of those games, everything the two teams hit seemed to fly into the back of the net. Conceding four against Hull City and the Boxing Day nightmare at Oxford United, when Cardiff let three go in, were also disappointing outings.
So, can Riza put his finger on just why his defence has been so porous this season?
"Mark McGuinness went at the start of the season," Riza said when asked about defensive issues. "We have got Will Fish in the building and he is a very good, young talent. Daland has come in and he is a young talent who hasn't played in the Championship before. Will hasn't played in the Championship before, he's played in Scotland and stuff like that.
"Joel Bagan is relatively quite young, 23 years old. When you're in this sort of situation, this cooker, sometimes it can be difficult. Rich Shaw was talking about when they were in relegation battles at Palace, what it could lead to and how you can feel nervous at times.
"We understand it. It's been tough. But at the same time, we have done OK defensively through certain parts of the season, but it's not been consistent enough.
"It's not just the back four or the back five, the goal the other day came from something where we play the ball out well, all it needs is a nice set and we turn the ball over and you are 1-0 down.
"You've got to look at how you defend those moments and how urgent you are in those moments. Whether you should have slid across the pitch quicker or covered a bit better. It stems from more than just the back four and goalkeeper. We will keep working and looking these things."
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Cardiff have scored 34 goals themselves this term. They're hardly prolific, but it seems less of a worry than their performance at the other end of the pitch.
It's not an exaggeration to say that if they don't fix the problems at the back, then it could spell real trouble. Tuesday's defeat at Fratton Park sees City hovering just two points above the drop zone with crucial games against Bristol City, Plymouth Argyle and Hull City all looming. Just six points separate the bottom seven teams, although Cardiff do have a game in hand over two of them.
For Riza and his staff, it's about finding the right formula. The right midfield balance and wide players to help tracking back and, importantly, finding a settled back line, which has been hard to come by this season, for one reason or another.
"Stability of a back four or five, you want that to be consistent through the season, for whatever reason, injuries, we've lost a player, performances not being quite there, they've led to changes," Riza added.
"Sometimes those changes have led to better performances as well. Although we've lost consistency, we've made changes that have allowed us to perform, like Andy Rinomhota coming in and performing well over a certain amount of games, his performances have led to some of our successes. Same with Joel Bagan coming in.
"Whatever negatives there are, you can always switch it to the positives. You can always get some consistency, with the actual selection and the performances."
He's right about perspective and performances have forced change sometimes. But it is also true that numbers don't lie and City's defence is not good enough in its current state.
Fortunately, after two tough away defeats, Cardiff will welcome the home comfort of Saturday's fixture. Their home form has been a real positive in recent weeks and it's not often we have said that in recent years, with City often faring better on the road than in their own back yard.
City are undefeated in their three derby matches against Bristol City and Swansea this season and will hope to continue that record in front of home supporters on Saturday afternoon. If they do, then it could serve as a positive catalyst heading into the other key crucial fixtures in the not-so-distant future.
"The crowd have been good," Riza said. "They are dealing with things they need to deal with. They are always backing us until a performance doesn't go well, then you see a little animosity and unhappiness. You have to accept it, that's normal.
"I'm sure they will be how they were the last few games and they will continue supporting, they love the club at the end of the day.
"We have lost two in 11, albeit the last two, against Portsmouth and Leeds, and it can be difficult. You lose one game and everyone then feels you're not doing a good job or the players get disappointed, because the points get a little closer again.
"If you wallow in it too much you end up driving yourself mad. No one knows the real situations, only we know, in respect of the players and why they are playing and why they are not playing. We don't ever want to put out a weaker side than what is our strongest side. You want to put out your strongest side according to the opposition your playing against.
"Those situations can be difficult. But we are in a good place, we just need to be better at times. We let ourselves down at times. We have got the capability to do so well, but sometimes the situation, the precariousness of the whole thing, can sometimes set nervousness into the players at times and they forget all the good things they've done and revert to something that's comfortable.
"Sometimes you've got to be uncomfortable to be the best you can be. That's something we will try and address."
