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Inside Arne Slot's one Champions League campaign amid harsh Diego Simeone lesson
Liverpool’s return to the Champions League in 2024/25 was confirmed by Tottenham’s 2-0 defeat at Chelsea on Thursday evening. Following Spurs’ derby defeat to Arsenal last weekend it was as good as settled anyway, barring them overhauling the Reds’ goal difference advantage of 26.
It will be an interesting campaign to be in Europe’s top club competition, as UEFA is changing the format. Teams will play eight group stage games and compete against each other in a single league. The top eight go straight through to the round of 16, with the clubs ranked ninth to 24th playing knockout ties to reach that stage.
It will be a new challenge for Liverpool’s next manager. Assuming Arne Slot replaces Jürgen Klopp as looks likely (though he confirmed earlier that nothing is agreed yet), the group stage in 2024/25 will feature more Champions League matches than he currently has on his CV. But while Slot was unable to guide Feyenoord past Atlético Madrid, Celtic and Lazio this season, the data from the matches suggests he was more than a little unlucky.
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Following its exit, Feyenoord faced familiar foe Roma in the Europa League. Slot led his men to face them in the first Europa Conference League final in 2021/22 but lost 1-0 despite narrowly edging the expected goals in a tight match.
The sides then met in the Europa League last season, Roma advancing in extra time with the advantage of having the second leg at home. It knocked Feyenoord out this season too, this time requiring a penalty shoot-out.
Roma looks unlikely to qualify for Europe's top table next season, so if Slot is at Liverpool he probably won’t face them for a fourth consecutive season. Here’s how his team performed in the Champions League this season.
Feyenoord 2-0 Celtic
Feyenoord started its campaign in perfect fashion with a 2-0 home win over Celtic. While its task was made easier by Gustaf Lagerbielke and Odin Holm both being sent off for the visitors, Slot’s side was already a goal to the good via Calvin Stengs before the first red card occurred. The Dutch were up and running.
Atlético Madrid 3-2 Feyenoord
This one will have hurt. The expected goal totals for this match were 2.4 to 0.8 in Feyenoord’s favor, and Slot’s side led twice. With the beaten team holding an xG advantage of 1.6, this was the most 'unjust' result in the entire 2023/24 Champions League group stage. It's what Liverpool knows as being 'Diego Simeone-d'.
Arguably more notable was the fact Feyenoord had 2.4 non-penalty expected goals. Only two other teams in La Liga or Europe have had as much at Atlético Madrid in the last seven years, with Simeone known for his tight defenses.
Feyenoord 3-1 Lazio
If Feyenoord was unfortunate in Madrid, it was somewhat lucky in Rotterdam against Lazio. The underlying statistics implied a draw would’ve been a fairer result. But by taking a three-goal lead through a brace from Santiago Giménez and a strike from Ramiz Zerrouki, Slot’s side took the points. Halfway through the group stage, Feyenoord was top of Group E.
Lazio 1-0 Feyenoord
It was all downhill from there though. The slump began in Rome – what is it with that city and Slot’s Feyenoord? – and a 1-0 loss. Slot’s team missed the two Opta-defined big chances it generated while conceding the only one it allowed at the other end. This difference meant the Eredivisie side narrowly won the xG, but suffered defeat all the same.
Feyenoord 1-3 Atlético Madrid
While not as egregious as the loss in Spain, at least in expected goal terms, Feyenoord was beaten by Simeone’s side once again. The issue here was that Slot’s side conceded two own goals, with reported Liverpool transfer target Lutsharel Geertruida and Giménez putting through their own net. With an xG score of 1.1 to 1.3, a draw would have been a fairer result, and the outcome meant Feyenoord was out.
Celtic 2-1 Feyenoord
With Feyenoord on six points and Celtic on one, this was a dead rubber for both sides. Slot picked a fairly strong team nonetheless, and his side looked to have earned a point when Yankuba Minteh equalized in the 82nd minute. However, a stoppage time strike from Lagerbielke condemned Feyenoord to a third consecutive European defeat in which the balance of chances suggested a draw would’ve been the right outcome.
Conclusion
While expected goals can’t account for wasteful finishing or own goals, the data implies Feyenoord should’ve won two and drawn four of its matches in the 2023/24 Champions League Group Stage. If games were settled on xG, it would’ve topped the group and been seeded in the Round of 16.
Feyenoord's total of 10 expected points was the most by a side which failed to reach the knockout phase, and more than eventual semi-finalists Borussia Dortmund posted. Such is life in a low-scoring sport, especially against the dark arts of Simeone, and Slot will likely have learned plenty from the experience. His side performed a lot better than third place in Group E initially suggests.
