Neymar's PSG transfer proves the Premier League is losing its appeal with Brexit set to wreak havoc
It is easy to think that Neymar’s £200m transfer to Paris Saint-Germain represents an example of the ever-increasing march of money changing hands in football. We had already had a €100m player, so why not €200m? Give us a few years, and someone else will be wanging €300m in the direction of Neymar to jump ship from Paris to elevate the Chinese Super League to another level.
This is entirely possible. The amount of money in football will not necessarily ever really dip. Qatar and China operate their affairs in commerce with an unusual amount of explicit state support compared to Western countries. China’s centrally controlled economy, and Qatar’s petrodollars are – to some extent – funnelled into football. This is used to make an impact on how these two countries influence the world, and how they are perceived by others.
There is no need to be especially resentful, but you can be concerned. The UK and the US, and the rest of the western world, have for at least 100 years been a blight upon the rest of the globe. The expansion of their influence across the world has caused a great deal of suffering – we do not need to mistake technological and societal progress as a direct result of capitalism, merely we can note that as time has marched on, so humankind’s abilities.
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As Qatar and China increase their influence and economic power, they too give into the temptation to whitewash their human rights abuses, and attempt a cultural hegemony of their own. It is not good, but it is not new, and it would be hypocritical to assume otherwise.
Barcelona, Real Madrid and Manchester United are at the vanguard of becoming globally dominant, almost detached from their physical location. You don’t need to be in Barcelona, Madrid, Manchester, or even Spain or England, to participate in supporting the club. With the internet, global television rights and social media, clubs can engage with anyone who wants to be engaged. They can offer them suggestions for the best noodles, paints, watches and tractors, tailored to wherever they are in the world. You can have a bespoke supporting experience based on your location. What a thrill!
There is an easy – and logical – assumption, that these clubs will continue to dominate, because they are the most famous, and so the cycle of dominance is rewarded with money, which in turn allows increasing expansion and sporting success. It is easy to assume that the Premier League will continue to generate more and more money with bidding round. Here is why this assumption could well be wrong, and why the Premier League’s era of financial dominance could come to an end sooner than anticipated.
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The two UK rights holders are BT and Sky. BT has endured a miserable time this year, losing hundreds of millions of pounds to an accounting scandal and the ensuing fine. It has a weighty pension legacy to deal with, and it is being told to up its investment in Britain’s internet infrastructure. Sky has endured a huge round of redundancies and cost-cutting as it tried to fend off BT from taking the Champions League, Spanish football and Premier League football. It was partially successful, but for both companies, costs are soaring far higher than profits have been.
Then, think of the implications of Brexit and the British economy. Cost of living for the average resident is increasing as wages fall behind. Investment in business is on a downward trend. Consumer spending is an inverted pyramid of debt, ready to tip over when prodded. When the standard capital cycle comes to an end – and it is due to either this year or the next – it will be compounded by the catastrofarce which is the process of Brexit. When the time comes for a renewal of broadcast rights, this could conceivably come when the two main contenders are involved in cost-cutting, not expansion, compounded by a country which can no longer devote increasing sums to fripperies like paid-for television subscription.
Further to that, the immigration policies of both Labour and the Conservative parties are alarming. While open borders, everywhere, is clearly the right idea, the UK is narrowing access to those who wish and need to come into the country. This could mean that the best players in the world will be offered the choice to come to an increasingly closed country, when other offers will come from a booming continental Europe entering a sustained period of economic expansion, an increasingly economically dominant China, and the absurdly rich United Arab Emirates. For British players, they will find the chance to flee a sinking ship increasingly attractive.
In turn, as Britain becomes less attractive generally, and the Premier League becomes less attractive specifically, revenue will drop, players will leave, and it will become a difficult cycle to break until the country and sport undergoes a serious restructuring. There are repeated complaints about money in football ruining the game, but perhaps that won’t be a problem for the Premier League for much longer. While a £300m player is probably closer to fruition than most people have expected, the odds of the Premier League being contenders for such sums are increasingly lengthy.