Supercomputer predicts Arsenal and Man City Premier League title race with new outcome

Mikel Arteta talks to Arsenal players

Arsenal still sit in the driving seat to win the Premier League title this season after their 3-0 win over Bournemouth last weekend but with Manchester City still holding a precious game in hand, it's still all to play for.

With just one point currently separating the two sides, Mikel Arteta's men are not only vying to secure their first league title in over 20 years but also trying to exact revenge on Pep Guardiola's Citizens after last season's dramatic title race which saw the Gunners stumble in the final few weeks of the season to hand Man City their fourth Premier League in a row.

However, there's been no sign of that happening in recent weeks, with just one defeat in their last 16 league matches coming at the hands of Unai Emery's Aston Villa. Their win over the Cherries on Saturday handed them a six-goal cushion in terms of goal difference over City, but the Gunners will still need to 'win-out' and hope that Guardiola's men drop points in their final three matches of the season in order to have a chance at winning the title.

As for Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool, a torrid rut in form over the past few weeks has seen their title hopes all but dashed with just two wins in their last five - including a 2-0 Merseyside derby loss to Everton at Goodison Park - condemning them to an almost-guaranteed third-place finish in the German's final season in charge at Anfield.

Ahead of Arsenal's vital clash with a struggling Manchester United side on Sunday afternoon,'s supercomputer, BETSiE, ran it's algorithm to predict how the 2023-24 Premier League title race will pan out. The probability model - which takes into account all match results from last season (across all competitions), pre-season results and the current season - projects the title race based on both pre-season expectations and xG earned both for and against during the season.

With the supercomputer simulating the Premier League season 100,000 times, the Gunners were given a 44.9 percent chance to win the league title from this point on while Man City's winning probability stands at 55.1%. The final projected table sees Man City sat on an average of 88.7 points while Arsenal finished on an average of 87.8 points, meaning the title race went down to less than a single point.

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The supercomputer still has Arsenal finishing with a better goal difference than Man City, but in real life, the Gunners will need them to drop points for that to have an impact on how the title race finishes - a scenario which the supercomputer predicts won't happen.

With trips to Fulham and Tottenham before a home game against West Ham as their final match of the season, it's certainly possible for Guardiola's side to simply win all three and lift their fifth consecutive Premier League title but Arsenal boss Arteta is still insisting his side will be the ones to lift the trophy at the end of the season.

When asked how he's feeling ahead of their final two matches of the season with the title race still in the balance, he admitted: "Very excited. We've done it for nine and a half months now. There's two weeks to go, we really want to get it done. We're closer than we were yesterday and hopefully we can bring the title here."