Three Welsh regions have defied the gloom but Dragons are cut adrift
It has been a long time since there's been even a modicum of optimism when it comes to Wales' four professional clubs.
Cardiff, Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets have all struggled on and off the field over the past few years due to financial constraints and constant infighting with the Welsh Rugby Union. But there have been improved performances this season from at least three sides who are all in contention in both the United Rugby Championship and the Challenge Cup.
Some might say there are small signs of improvement amid hope of a more prosperous future, but there are still many challenges ahead. Rugby correspondent Steffan Thomas takes a look at where all four clubs stand at the halfway point of the season.
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Cardiff
There have been some green shoots of recovery at the Arms Park over the last couple of seasons. Put simply, Cardiff's results are pretty much in line with their playing budget because it is unrealistic to expect teams who spend £4.5m, in a league where there are sides who spend over double that, to be overly successful.
Cardiff's strongest side is capable of causing some damage, but there is a big drop off in experience between first and second choice in a number of positions, which again is a consequence of operating from such a meagre playing budget.
Cardiff are fifth in the URC, which is a position everybody associated with the club would have taken at the start of the season. Matt Sherratt's side won their opening two URC fixtures of the campaign against Zebre and the Scarlets respectively, before coming crashing back down to earth with a home defeat to defending champions Glasgow.
Their victory over Ulster in November was probably their most noteworthy of the season to date. Cardiff have tended to compete well for large periods of games but have lacked the depth and the power of some of their rivals which has often resulted in the Welsh club falling off in the final quarter of matches.
There is some real talent in the squad, with 18-year-old wing Tom Bowen one of many youngsters with a bright future. Cardiff have got to a stage where they can be competitive and there is a strong nucleus of quality home-grown players who should serve the club well over the next few seasons.
But the challenge now is to keep adding quality and depth to the squad. They have been busy trying to strengthen, with the potential signings of Taine Basham and Ioan Lloyd, but the front five is the area which could do with some investment.
It has been a year since Helford Capital Limited acquired an 84.55% majority shareholding in the company. When the new Professional Rugby Agreement with the Welsh Rugby Union eventually gets signed it'll be interesting to see whether Helford begin to invest in the squad as the salary cap goes up over the next couple of seasons.
As far as the 2024/25 season goes Cardiff are in the mix for the play-offs in the URC and are in the last 16 of the Challenge Cup but face a very tricky tie away at Connacht. Wales' capital city club has a number of extremely difficult away fixtures to come in the URC against the likes of the Stormers, Bulls, Benetton, and Connacht.
The smart money is on Sherratt's side narrowly missing out on the play-offs but there are reasons to be optimistic for the next couple of seasons.
Dragons RFC
To say the Dragons have faced challenges this season would be putting it lightly. What started as a moment of promise, with Luke Yendle’s dramatic last-gasp try securing a thrilling win over the Ospreys at Rodney Parade, quickly turned into a season of struggles.
Since that opening victory, the team has endured a tough run, losing their next seven games in both the URC and Challenge Cup. Early on, performances weren’t without merit — there were flashes of potential, like the near-misses against the Sharks and Lions at home, where the margins were razor-thin. But key moments didn’t go their way and small mistakes in decisive situations compounded their woes.
When losing becomes a habit, it can be difficult to break the cycle. Unfortunately, the Dragons couldn’t reverse their fortunes, and the string of defeats ultimately cost head coach Dai Flanagan his position, with Ospreys legend Filo Tiatia stepping in as interim head coach.
They now sit rock-bottom of the URC table, eights points adrift of 15th-placed Zebre.
In a results-driven business, the head coach often shoulders the blame, and while Flanagan must accept his share of responsibility, it feels unjust to suggest he alone is at fault. Flanagan inherited a difficult situation when he took over from Dean Ryan in 2022, and the issues plaguing the Dragons run far deeper than one man.
The Dragons' struggles are multi-faceted with the club going from head coach to head coach with little to no improvement. One area where the Dragons have really failed is with their recruitment and of course Flanagan has to take some of the flak here.
But what about those who have signed off each recruitment process for players and coaches? Surely they should also take some of the blame?
It is plain wrong to throw Flanagan under the bus while absolving others of blame. Many of their summer signings have not made the impact they would have hoped for and there is a lack of quality and experience in the squad in comparison to most of their rivals in the URC.
The Dragons have ambitious owners in David Wright, David Buttress and Hoyoung Huh, who all have impressive track records in the world of business but they have an extremely difficult task in front of them. They have to get the recruitment right this summer and the Dragons desperately need a nucleus of high-quality overseas players in the same mould as Tiatia during his time at the Ospreys.
The problem is the Dragons can only spend to the cap and over the course of the last 20 years haven't produced as many players to the national side as the other three regions. There is hope with the likes of Harri Ackerman, Joe Westwood, Ben Carter and Ryan Woodman, but on the whole they need to produce as great a volume of top-end players as their Welsh rivals.
The Dragons claim to be the most stable professional club in Wales off the field. That is all well and good, but they really need to start delivering on the field over the next couple of seasons.
Ospreys
It seems as if the Ospreys were on the back foot from the off after the club decided to announce this would be Toby Booth's final season as head coach. The initial plan was for defence coach Mark Jones to take up the reins at the end of the season but things have panned out differently.
Booth's side slipped to a last-gasp defeat to the Dragons in the opening round of the URC season with Wales' most successful region winning just three of their first nine games in all competitions. As a result Booth's exit was brought forward, with Jones elevated to head coach sooner than expected.
Booth did a tremendous job at the Ospreys, creating a strong culture and laying the foundations to allow the Welsh side to punch above their weight over the past few seasons. But Jones' move up to head coach has coincided with a significant upturn in both performances and results.
They snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the Scarlets over the festive period with a Iestyn Hopkins try at the death securing a vital 23-22 win over their bitter rivals. Jones' side proceeded to draw at Cardiff on New Year's Day before comfortably dispatching Newcastle Falcons in the Challenge Cup.
But they have taken their game to a new level over the past fortnight with a stunning 31-28 victory away to Pau in the Challenge Cup followed by a resounding 43-0 hiding of Benetton in Swansea. The Ospreys have the strongest pack of forwards of all four Welsh sides but their attack has improved significantly over the last month.
They currently reside in 11th place on the URC table, just two points off the play-offs, but face a difficult run-in which includes a trip to South Africa. Unfortunately they may just have left themselves with too much to do in the URC, although you'd never rule them out, but there is no reason why they cannot enjoy a strong run in the Challenge Cup.
They host the Scarlets at the Swansea.com Stadium in the round of 16 of the Challenge Cup in April which is a game they will surely target. But the biggest concern surrounding the Ospreys is the attendance figures, with just 2,832 present to cheer them on against Benetton.
They are set to move to a redeveloped St Helen's at the back end of this year and they hope a move closer to the city centre will boost attendance figures and crucially allow them to make non-matchday income, which is something they cannot do at the Swansea.com Stadium.
Scarlets
Things could not have gone much worse for the Scarlets last season, who finished 13th with just five victories. This led to a lot of soul searching and to their credit the Scarlets board made some key changes.
The easy option would have been to part ways with head coach Dwayne Peel, but the Scarlets board see potential in the former Wales scrum-half and have opted to back him. Leigh Jones was appointed as rugby performance director following successful spells in Japan and with Leicester Tigers.
Jones has taken some of the pressure off Peel while also providing an experienced shoulder to lean on. But the biggest difference has been the decision to strengthen the pack with external recruits.
Last season the Scarlets got blown away at the set-piece and the contact area, while they were far too easy to score tries against. Summer recruits such as South African hooker Marnus van der Merwe, Scotland prop Alec Hepburn, Wales tighthead Henry Thomas and Australian second-row Max Douglas have significantly improved the Scarlets up-front.
They have also recruited two wings in Ellis Mee and Blair Murray who were virtually unknown a few months ago but are now part of the Wales squad. Peel's side are currently sixth in the URC table and have already won as many matches as last season.
But it could have been so much better if they had not conceded points at the death against both Connacht and the Ospreys respectively. They also missed opportunities to beat both Glasgow and Bayonne away from home.
The Scarlets are putting themselves in a position to win games but have lacked control and game management in a handful of encounters. Still, this is a far better showing than last season and they will at least be in the mix for the play-offs, but perhaps they will be made to regret a couple of those narrow defeats.
A mouth-watering Challenge Cup knockout tie against the Ospreys in April is undoubtedly a fixture which will get the juices flowing down west.
