Lucas Piazon is one of 33 promising players loaned out by Chelsea © Getty

As a young man, or even as a slightly older man, the chance to play football for Chelsea must have substantial allure. One of the world’s richest clubs, based in one of London’s most affluent neighbourhoods. You’re guaranteed state of the art facilities, a handsome salary and the chance to rub shoulders with the likes of Eden Hazard, John Terry and Jeremy Clarkson. It’s no wonder so many starlets gleefully accept the opportunity to move to Stamford Bridge and play under the great Jose Mourinho.

There are a few catches, though. Firstly, you probably won’t have much contact with Mourinho. You’re more likely to fall under the guidance of Peter Bosz, the non-Champions League winning manager of Vitesse Arnhem, or Yannick Ferrera, the distinctly un-box office boss of Belgian team Sint-Truiden. Chelsea currently have eight players on loan at these two clubs, plus another 25 playing for various outfits around Europe from Royal Mouscron-Peruwelz to Peterborough.

The deadline day loan transfers of Victor Moses (West Ham), Nathaniel Chalobah (Napoli), Islam Feruz (Hibernian) and Michael Hector, who was signed from Reading for £4m and immediately sent back, brought the total number of Blues players out on loan to 33. An immense diaspora that dwarfs the 24 players comprising Chelsea’s first-team squad, as well as every other squad in the Premier League.

Every one of those players, with the possible exception of Juventus new boy Juan Cuadrado, will harbour hopes of one day returning to west London and playing for their parent club. So how many will manage it?

Although we can’t predict the future with any certainty, we can look at Chelsea’s current squad for an indication - and it doesn’t make promising reading for those 33 loanees. Of Chelsea’s 24 first-teamers, just one has survived the loan model. Thibaut Courtois played three seasons at Atletico Madrid before returning to usurp Petr Cech as number one goalkeeper.
But as one of the most outstanding talents of his generation, who played in the Champions League final as part of his loan, the Belgian is clearly an exception to most rules.

The closest we get to the Courtois success story - although it’s not very close at all - is Nemanja Matic. The midfielder was once on Chelsea’s loan conveyor belt and played a season at Vitesse before Benfica signed him permanently as part of the deal that took David Luiz to London. Chelsea signed him back three years later for £21m, making a £17m loss in the process, so that hardly seems like good business.

After that, you have to go all the way back to John Terry to find the last Chelsea player that made it through the youth team ranks - 15 season ago.

The club’s motivation for buying 33 players and loaning them out is not completely clear. Roman Abramovich’s wealth allows Chelsea the luxury of taking numerous gambles on youngsters on the off-chance of unearthing the next Hazard at a knockdown price. But the fact that not a single outfield player has broken into the team indicates it is not worth the effort. The Blues have spent around £100m on the 33 players currently loaned out. They could have saved themselves a lot of trouble by just buying one £100m player instead. The suspicion is that Chelsea’s loan model is merely a cash cow. The approach has sometimes brought healthy profits, such as the 2014 sale of Kevin de Bruyne to Wolfsburg for £11m more than the Blues paid. But even then, De Bruyne’s subsequent £55m move to Man City means Chelsea would have been better off - financially, at least - putting him in their first team.

For each one of Chelsea’s army of loanees, whether you’re Moses or Lewis Baker or Kenneth Omeruo, the dream of playing under Mourinho will still feel attainable. But based on the available evidence, the answer to this very specific question is that of those 33 players, the number that will become first team regulars is possibly one, probably none.

@darlingkevin

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