Arsenal need Champions League to avoid Europa drag

If Arsenal fail to win against Dinamo Zagreb tonight, then they are out of the Champions League with a game still to come. They have nobody but themselves to blame, with familiar problems and entirely new weaknesses hampering their season at a traditional time. It has been established that November is traditionally their poorest month for points and defeats. Arsene Wenger has had a decade to put right these weaknesses, and every year he fails to do so. To ignore the obvious is negligence on his part, and once again, you wonder just how long the fans will indulge him.

The chances of Arsenal now qualifying for the group stages are slim. They are six points behind Bayern Munich and Olympiacos, and Olympiacos need a single point from their final two group games to be assured of qualification. Arsenal and Olympiacos play one another in Greece in the final game on the 9 December. While Arsenal players know that to win these games should be routine tasks, their complacency so far in the competition hints that might be the problem. It is a common theme at Arsenal - play well sometimes, think you’re brilliant, then fall apart amidst injury and obstacle.

And the injury list is now at its normal, Arsenal level. Jack Wilshere is nothing if not consistent in his ability to breakdown, for which he obviously deserves sympathy. It seems particularly cruel on both Wilshere and Tomas Rosicky that they are both injured again, but there comes a point when it stops just being cruel, and when players have to wonder if they are making the correct career choice when it comes to Arsenal. Of course, it might simply be bad luck, but playing for a side that regularly has extensive injury lists, taken up by injuries that seem to rarely be treated efficiently and effectively, might be considered an irresponsible courting of bad luck.

It’s not just the players who push their luck with injuries, but the manager too. Wenger knew that Morgan Schneiderlin was available this summer, that he was well within his budget (especially as he only spent a little on Petr Cech), and ignored him. Schneiderlin’s transfer to United took several weeks from the opening bid to completion, and was towards the end of the summer, so there was plenty of opportunity and very little by way of excuses. Wenger deliberately elected not to buy a proven Premier League player, of the correct age to provide value, who was affordable. Instead, he started the season with Francis Coquelin as the only worthwhile defensive midfielder in the squad. Mikel Arteta and Mathieu Flamini can both play that position, but Flamini’s quality is now extremely limited, and Arteta’s body has plainly started to fail him, and was himself injured in the defeat to West Bromwich Albion.

Add to this injuries to Aaron Ramsey, Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and you have a traditional Arsenal winter. The pressure is growing on them, and there’s little evidence that things will dramatically improved. Wenger acknowledged that other players, such as Alexis Sanchez, are now suffering from fatigue. As players start games with niggles and tiredness, more serious injuries become likely. Between Sanchez and Mesut Ozil, Arsenal have two superb players who are able to make vital interventions at important moments, and give players like Olivier Giroud chances to score. Should either of them suffer the curse of Arsenal, and suffer a couple of months out with a muscle injury, then Arsenal’s season will be over even earlier than usual.

If it were purely a physical problem, that would be easier to address, but the evidence is of a consistent mental flaw. To beat Bayern Munich, and to do so with an exceptionally measured performance, shows that Arsenal players have the ability. To also lose at home to Olympiacos and then away to West Brom, a Tony Pulis side, suggests that the team are too weak to grind out victories as often as is required.

It had appeared that November would be kind to Arsenal, for once. They had simple games to negotiate, and even if they faced a possible exit from the Champions League group, they would finish it stronger than they started it. They have superficially easy games, too. But the with the pressure mounting, they will receive Sunderland at home. That should be simple, but the enjoyably malevolent Sam Allardyce will be bringing a side keen on showing Arsenal how hard it is to stand up when Lee Cattermole boots you from behind for 90 minutes, and every other header brings an elbow in the head or back. Arsenal should beat them, yes, but they should have already qualified for the group stages, and Santi Cazorla should have scored an equaliser. Arsenal’s trait is that they can pull off magnificent single victories and then throw any advantage away carelessly. It is how Wenger also operates in the transfer windows, signing Ozil and Sanchez was remarkable. But so is letting other obvious transfers slip through his hands, if he even bothered offering his hands out in the first place.

If Arsenal win tonight, they will become favourites to qualify from the group, after Bayern Munich. If they don’t, they will likely be subjected to the Europa League. That is perhaps the worst outcome for a side already carrying a long injury list. Arsenal cannot afford to have their fringe players occupied by another tournament when they are so often needed for the main event. But knowing Wenger, and Arsenal, they might take the tournament seriously and finally win a European trophy, such is their underlying talent. But also knowing Arsenal, they might take it as a sign that the methods are working, and nothing new needs to be tried.