Ashes: England's often-reliable hero Broad is in decline... and this time it could prove terminal

Ashes series tend to bookend careers and often finish English ones. At the start of the summer, it was predicted that one of England’s great fast bowlers will be the high profile casualty of this tour. With England relinquishing the urn at the earliest possible opportunity, that prognosis looks like it will come good. However, it is not the great they expected.

At 35 years of age, the obituaries were being prepped for James Anderson. Yet here he is, 12 wickets at 25.83, succeeding on the Australian pitches that were supposed to send him under. If he manages seven wickets at Melbourne, he will have his best yearly haul: he is currently sitting on 51 wickets at a freakish average of 16.86 from 10 matches. He has never taken more than the four five-wicket hauls he has so far in 2017. The magic shows no signs of dwindling. The same cannot be said of Stuart Broad.

Broad’s penchant for the big stage and turns as pantomime villain have thrust himself to the top of the “most hated” list for all who England face. It is a “hate” he has carried as a badge of honour. The type of player opposition sides would love to have on their side of the dressing room. Even Australians had developed a grudging respect for the Nottinghamshire one, who has often saved his best work for Ashes series, notably a devastating 8-15 at Trent Bridge in 2015 to help England regain the urn they’ve now spurned.

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This time around, he has just five wickets in as many innings. He is averaging 61.80 and has not managed a dismissal in his last 54 overs. Some say he has lost the fight, the fire, the comic book traits helped him to 393 Test wickets in, at times, blockbusting fashion. But there have been signs over the last two years that it is not just the intangibles that Broad is losing.

The skills look on the wane, too and, on reflection, his own words have perhaps given an insight into the fast bowlers travails. Perhaps not evident at the time. But Broad, usually brimming with the unflappable confidence of anyone six-foot-plenty, blonde and strong-jawed, was beginning to sound like an ageing boxer daring to come to terms with his own mortality.

Two summers ago, he spoke openly about losing his wrist, which affected the action he was imparting on the ball. It actually gave him a neat new trick – booming inswingers. However, it meant he lost the ability to move the ball away from right-handers, something he did quick and late. Those deliveries often formed the basis for those bulldozing Broad spells where he rips the heart and soul of the opposition.

The last time we were treated to one of those was January 2016, when Broad inspired England to a series win in South Africa with six for 17 in Johannesburg. There were no duds in that set: the entire top six falling seemingly to his sheer will. One by one, the likes of Dean Elgar, Hashim Amla and AB de Villiers were swept up in the power and the glory of Stuart Broad. This was his 15^th five-wicket haul and the eighth time he has taken five or more wickets in the same spell. It was also the last time he’s taken five wickets in an innings.

For most of 2017, he has talked about how he feels one of those big spells is just around the corner. Given his history of taking wickets in clusters, there was little reason to doubt him. But this gap between hauls is unusually long and this year is set to be one of his worst since establishing himself in international cricket. With one Test left in the calendar, he has 25 wickets, an innings best of 3-34 and an average threatening to creep over 40.

Those skills that helped him take 21 wickets on the 2013/14 tour – he was the only quick to average under 30 – have deserted him. His effort in the last match ranks as his worst showing in Test cricket: 35 overs of grind bringing no reward for 142 runs. It is the second worst set of figures in Ashes history.

There are important caveats that need to be considered, but ones that do not detract from the feeling that Broad’s time may be up. He battled a heel injury over the last English summer and, prior to the Test at Perth, he had a scan on his troublesome left knee, which has taken all of the force of almost 6,000 first-class overs. That gazelle-like bound and those gruelling spells have taken their toll.

If Craig Overton is passed fit for the Boxing Day Test, Broad is likely to make way for Durham’s Mark Wood as England search for pace Broad has not been able to give them. Ashes defeat always elicits overreaction but it is hard to argue that Broad deserves to keep his place. Being dropped may give the 31-year-old a jolt to get back to his best, but the worry is that this is a decline that looks terminal.