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Barbenheimer: ‘Barbie’ Tracking for Beatific $70M- $80M Opening, Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ Targets $40M
In one of the most intriguing showdowns in recent times, filmmaker Greta Gerwig’s Barbie is tracking to open well ahead of Christopher Nolan’s atomic bomb drama Oppenheimer. But the biggest winner could be theatrical if the two movies work over the long run.
The two July tentpoles — dubbed “Barbenheimer” on social media — officially came on tracking Thursday, three weeks ahead of their detonation in theaters over the July 21-23 weekend.
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From Warner Bros., Barbie could open to a beatific $70 million to $80 million, if not more, according to sources who have access to tracking data (and there’s plenty of upside). Warners is being more cautious, suggesting $60 million. The movie, based on the iconic Mattel toy line of dolls, stars Margot Robbie in the titular role and Ryan Gosling as Ken.
A Barbie movie had languished in development for years before moving from Sony to Warners. But in recent weeks, the film has turned into a social media and marketing phenomenon (not to mention merchandising). And buzzy female-skewing titles can transform into box office summer bonanzas, such as Warners’ Sex and the City or Universal’s Mamma Mia! franchises. Barbie is skewing almost entirely female at this point, and particularly to females 35 and under.
Universal and Nolan’s Oppenheimer is tracking for a domestic debut in the $40 million range. For Oppenheimer — an R-rated, three-hour drama targeting adults — having legs could prove far more important than its opening weekend haul. Still, $40 million would mark one of the acclaimed filmmaker’s lowest openings. And excluding Tenet, which opened to $20 million during the heart of the pandemic, it would mark Nolan’s lowest start since The Prestige ($14.8 million) in 2006.
Nolan has come in No. 2 before; in 2014, Interstellar opened behind Disney’s Big Hero 6 with $47.5 million on its way to enjoying a long ride in theaters and grossing $701.7 million globally.
Oppenheimer stars Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer, considered the father of the atom bomb, alongside an ensemble cast of A-listers including Emily Blunt and Matt Damon.
Paramount and Skydance open Tom Cruise’s Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One on July 12 domestically, and the event pic will still be a formidable force when Oppenheimer and Barbie unfurl. (There’s even a scenario where Oppenheimer comes in third in its opening weekend behind Barbie and Mission: Impossible.)
The three tentpoles, along with this weekend’s Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, need to succeed if summer revenue is to make gains over 2022. On Thursday, Cruise urged his fans to support the theatrical experience by seeing Indy, Barbie and Oppenheimer (in addition to Mission, of course).
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