The PGA is back in Texas this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth. Colonial Country Club, a par 70 that stretches just over 7,200 yards, is a positional course with narrow, tree-lined fairways. Because it is a less-than-driver course, I’m targeting players with solid iron play.
There’s one player who has my attention but not because I want to back him. Instead, it’s because he’s been terrible with his irons. That player: Daniel Berger. Here are two ways you can fade him this week.
Sungjae Im (-120) vs. Daniel Berger
We haven’t seen Im since the Zurich Classic in mid-April, but this more of a wager against Berger than it is on Im. Since finishing in fourth place in The Honda Classic, Berger has played in five events, losing strokes off the tee in two and losing strokes on approach in four. He also lost three strokes in last week’s PGA Championship to miss the cut. Perhaps it wasn’t all iron play that cost him, but it was a contributing factor. Berger also lost seven strokes putting, his worst putting event since last August where he lost nearly six strokes at The Northern Trust.
Last week was a Perry Maxwell design on bentgrass, and this week is the same. Sure, Im hasn’t played in over a month, but in 2022, his game is better in nearly every category. Berger is a previous winner here at Schwab and could very well find his form on a familiar course, but losing your short game is one thing. Losing your ball-striking confidence is another.
Daniel Berger +300 to miss the cut
A small risk worth making for a solid return. The last time Berger had back-to-back missed cuts was early in 2019, missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open and the Waste Management Phoenix Open. He missed the cut in last week’s major, where the cut line was top 70, including ties with about 40 players in the field that had no shot at making it. Berger’s game could be in real trouble here, losing 24 total strokes in three of his last four events. It's worth a sprinkle.