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Bluffers’ guide to the Premier League weekend: the stats speak on Mourinho’s Return

The Special One returns to Stamford Bridge on Sunday. Will triumph, disaster or a another dull draw ensue? Martin Bly has the numbers

Strange how the most compelling fixture this week should concern two clubs whose form over the last year or so has been anything but impressive. Neither Chelsea nor Manchester United are taking part in this year’s Champions League, and their performances so far this season do not suggest that they are overwhelmingly likely to qualify for it next year either.

Yet such is the sulky, saturnine power of Jose Mourinho that Bluffers who wish to entertain their audiences this weekend have little choice but to hold forth on the Special One’s ‘homecoming’ to Stamford Bridge on Sunday.

First of all some words of comfort for Antonio Conte, who so far has made a decent fist of his initial task of restoring order and morale to a Chelsea squad lacking in both after Mourinho’s departure.

Diego Costa may not be everyone’s ideal guest for afternoon tea, and indeed in the estimation of most neutrals he is as unpleasant as he is effective, but the League’s leading pantomime villain is also currently its top scorer, with seven goals in his first eight League matches.

His colleagues in Conte’s line-up have some powerful stats on their side along with Costa’s skills as a finisher and a thespian. Chelsea have not lost any of their last seven Premier League matches against United – but bluffers may consider it a statistical weakness that they have never in their history racked up eight matches against these opponents without defeat.

The Red Devils have also lost more Premier League matches against Chelsea (16) than against any other team. But if bluffers wish to play devil’s advocate they can point out that five of those PL wins were under the guidance of Mourinho.

United demonstrated at the start of the week against Liverpool that they know how to shut down creative opponents. They also look well placed when the performances of individual players so far this season are compared.

For example, bluffers can assert that United’s David de Gea has the edge over his opposite number in the Chelsea goal, Thibaut Courtois. The bearded Spaniard has taken a while to win the hearts and minds of the Old Trafford faithful, but he has not only conceded fewer goals than his Belgian counterpart this season (eight as opposed to nine) but also made more than twice as many saves (21 to 10). Chelsea fans still mourning Petr Cech, take note.

Antonio Valencia and Eric Bailly have also been outperforming their Chelsea counterparts, so the case for another United clean sheet can be made. But the Blues have the upper hand in attack, where not only is Costa more effective than Zlatan Ibrahimovic, but Eden Hazard – who leads the League in completed dribbles – is creating many opportunities for himself and others.

Also on Sunday, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, still no doubt shell-shocked by their comprehensive mugging at the hands of Barcelona in midweek, entertain the increasingly impressive Southampton.

Little has gone right for Guardiola since the hard-fought draw with Celtic at the end of last month, but he is not the first man to suffer a long hangover from a rough night in Glasgow, and may be comforted to be informed by bluffers that Sergio Aguero is overdue a goal: he has not gone three Premier League matches without scoring since December 2015.

Meanwhile the champions play host to Crystal Palace. Leicester City are in the unusual position of having more points in the Champions League (nine) than they do in the Premier League (eight), but bluffers who have listened closely to Claudio Ranieri’s pronouncements this autumn should not be surprised.

The twinkly Italian’s immediate priority has been to make respectable (and lucrative) progress in Europe, now all but assured. The focus at the King Power Stadium will turn to ensuring Premier League survival – and respectability – in the New Year.