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Bluffers’ Guide to the Premier League Weekend: what Spurs still need to do, and how Leicester did what they did

The key stats on the battles that remain at top and bottom, and analysis that cuts to the heart of The Foxes’ amazing achievement

The title race is over (there are juicy “How Did They Do It?” stats for Bluffers below) but the Champions League Race and the Relegation Avoidance Stakes are still very much on. Tottenham Hotspur need just a point to confirm qualification for Europe’s big prize next season, but there were signs of mental, if not physical, fatigue in the battle of Stamford Bridge and they will need to combine discipline with their aggression when Southampton visit on Sunday.

Sceptical bluffers will wish to point out that the Saints have been in terrific form of late (only champions Leicester are sharper) and that they have registered three wins in their last six away games. The South Coast side will not be in cruise mode as they are still in the picture for a Europa League place - but Spurs will not want to be left looking for a point on the last day of term away at under-threat Newcastle United.

Arsenal’s visit to Manchester City on Sunday should go a long way towards deciding who will have to fret through the qualifying rounds of the Champions League, and Gunners-favouring bluffers will like the fact that not only will City be scarred from their midweek defeat in Spain, they have also lost three of their last half dozen matches at home, while Arsenal have been defeated only once in their last six away games.

Manchester United travel to the far east to play Norwich City on Saturday, a match that is vital for the ambitions of both clubs and, no doubt, the career prospects of their respective managers. Louis van Gaal’s side have a game in hand on the top four and are desperate to crash their party. Norwich need to make the most of their game in hand over Newcastle to improve their chances of escaping the drop.

Bluffers will be aware that Norwich beat United at Old Trafford earlier in the season, and have the chance to become the first side to win back-to-back Premier League matches against United in a single season since Swansea last term; on the other hand they can point out that Delia Smith’s Canaries have won just two of their seven PL home games against United and drawn none, and scored five goals in such fixtures to United’s 10.

Meanwhile the new champions will be celebrated amid raucous scenes as Everton timidly visit the King Power Stadium, while bluffers, pundits and statisticians wrestle with the numbers and try to explain just how on earth Claudio Ranieri’s Indomitable Foxes pulled it off.

Historical bluffers will relish the opportunity to point out that Leicester spent more seasons in the top flight than any other club before taking the ultimate prize: their 48 victory-free seasons at the highest level of the English game beating the previous record of Derby County, who had endured 46 winless seasons before they won the old First Division in 1972.

More up-to-the-minute bluffers will wish to expand on the generally accepted fact that the Foxes’ success is not based on possession. They can point out that their average possession figure, 42.4 per cent, is the lowest of any title-winner in Premier League history, but they can go further and quote the work of North Yard Analytics, who concluded that Leicester became less likely to score goals the longer they had possession, unlike Spurs. Or indeed Arsenal, whose fans long ago concluded that possession does not translate into titles.

In brief, Leicester won the league with an immensely assured defence, with just one goal all season ascribable to defensive error; a tigerish midfield, in which N’Golo Kante made a league-topping 158 tackles; and relentless and effective counter-attack: 33 per cent of their total shots came on the counter, the highest not only in England but in all of Europe’s leading leagues. All that and, of course, the power of pizza.