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Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes prediction, pick: Will the all-grappler UFC 303 co-main become a slugfest?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 303 co-main event between Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes, which came together on just two weeks’ notice.
Brian Ortega UFC 303 preview
Staple info:
Height: 5’8″ Age: 33 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 69″
Last fight: Submission win over Yair Rodriguez(Feb. 24, 2024)
Camp: Team Ortega (California)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ RFA featherweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 3 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Serviceable feints and footwork
+ Improved shot selection
^ Checking elbows to uppercuts
+ Tricky inside the clinch
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Superb submission chains
+ Dangerous guard game
^ Active hips and deceptive strikes
+/- 0-1 in MMA rematches (3-3 in kickboxing rematches)
Diego Lopes UFC 303 preview
Apr 12, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; UFC fighter Diego Lopes during ceremonial weigh ins for UFC 300 at MGM Grand Garden Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Staple info:
Height: 5’11” Age: 29 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 72.5″
Last fight: TKO win over Sodiq Yusuff (April 13, 2024)
Camp: Lobo Gym MMA (Mexico)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 10 KO victories
+ 12 submission wins
+ 15 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved boxing ability
+ Hard calf kicks
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Dynamic submission game
+ Dangerous off of back
^ Works from high-to-low
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes point of interest: Striking on short notice
The co-main event for UFC 303 features an impromptu fight at 155 pounds between two men who usually compete at featherweight.
Not one to say no to a scrap, Lopes has proven that he is down to step up in multiple ways.
Stepping up his striking skills in recent years, Lopes shows some natural pop in his punches and kicks. Doing a bit better at staying over his feet, Lopes has made measurable strides since his early days of being a jiu-jitsu brawler.
Although Lopes’ aggressive instincts are still clearly intact, the 29-year-old Brazilian displays some solid straight punches that serve him well when coming forward and countering kicks. Whenever matched with a fellow orthodox opposition, Lopes will unleash crashing calf kicks often set up by his lead hand.
Lopes can also strike potently off of collar ties, but will need to be careful when closing in on Ortega.
Despite being known for his opportunistic submission game, Ortega has continually shown to make steady strides in his striking. Consistently keeping light on his toes, the 14-year pro stays ready to throw or move with his opposition, steadily setting the temperature to apply his approach.
Working behind a healthy dose of feints, Ortega will flick out jabs from either stance, almost like a flint lighter for the fires that he is attempting to start. Once Ortega gets going, he puts his punches together nicely, variating well to the body while punctuating his presence with accurate uppercuts and knees.
In his last slew of fights, Ortega has leaned much more on his southpaw stance for out-fighting and countering approaches. Against Chan Sung Jung, Ortega largely used his lead side to prod and check, smartly picking his spots to land power shots from his left side throughout the contest.
Still, despite adding useful tools like spinning or checking elbows, defense has not exactly been Ortega’s strong suit.
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Aug 5, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Diego Lopes (red gloves) fights Gavin Tucker (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Considering the grappling prowess of both parties, no one should be shocked if these two tangle on the floor this weekend.
By now, the secret has long been out on the grappling phenom from the Gracie Torrance Academy. As we saw in Ortega’s first few fights under the UFC banner, his transitional grappling was already at a very high level, displaying a deceptive process to his jiu-jitsu prowess.
Not afraid to fight from his back, Ortega has little issue in succeeding position off of failed takedown attempts or even going for high-risk attacks. Should his opponents follow the Gracie black belt to the floor, they often find themselves defending everything from sweep attempts to elbow strikes.
Bearing a submission game that can make you feel like you’re fighting a mythological Hydra, Ortega can turn calm waters into sea storms in a flash.
Once inside Ortega’s grasp, the Gracie fighter immediately goes to work by giving his opposition multiple problems to deal with while chaining from submission to submission, even altering positional terms when applicable. In Ortega’s last few fights opposite elite strikers, we saw him get after grappling opportunities a lot more than usual, but I’m not so sure that trend continues here.
Grappling since the age of five, Lopes is a lifelong martial artist who moves on the floor like second nature.
An absolute nightmare in transitions, Lopes flows through the position and submission index faster than any bogus AI program could replicate. Whether combining armbar and triangle threats or snatching up legs on an exit, Lopes is great about keeping a high-to-low theme to his attacks.
In more recent stretches of his career, Lopes appears to have made a real effort to shore up his wrestling, both defensively and offensively.
Not only does Lopes have things like clinch trips or reactive shots in his back pocket, but the Brazilian’s ability to defend and dictate action from the clinch will come in handy the higher he climbs in this division.
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes odds
Despite the oddsmakers opening the former title challenger as the favorite, public money has completely flipped the line, listing Lopes at -150 and Ortega +118 via FanDuel.
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes prediction, pick
Even though I understand the swing in the odds, it’s hard to deny the perceived value of Ortega as an underdog in this spot.
Aside from the fact that Ortega is the more proven product at the UFC level, “T-City” has shown that he can steal victory from the jaws of defeat late into fights.
Whereas Lopes, though bearing some deceptive experience of his own, has typically not faired as well when fights go long. But with this fight only being three frames with volatile short-notice intangibles in tow, it’s hard to be confident about anything when it comes to the conditioning or health of these fighters.
For that reason, I’ll be leaning more heavily into my stylistic reads here. In that department, Lopes checks off more of the boxes.
Whether we’re talking about Ortega’s propensity to eat straight shots or have his kicks countered, Lopes’ speed and savvy should give him a slight edge standing from the jump.
As far as the grappling goes, Lopes’ offensive patterns from takedowns to passes run him away from the strong side of Ortega (e.g. Ortega likes to choke with his left side while Lopes traditionally sags his head off to his opponent’s right). When Lopes is on his back, he almost always targets his opposition’s right arm – the same side Ortega injured when trying to defend an armbar attempt from Yair Rodriguez.
It’s a tricky fight to forecast regardless of who you like, but I believe Lopes is the more durable and dangerous fighter at this point in their careers.
I’ll pick Lopes to force a stoppage by strikes in round 2.
Prediction: Lopes inside the distance
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes start time, where to watch
Ortega and Lopes are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:30 p.m. ET (8:30 p.m. locally in Las Vegas). The fight streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 303.
