Champions League analysis: No Ronaldo, no excitement in Etihad borefest

Before the match had even started, it was one bound to be dominated by the absence of one man.

Cristiano Ronaldo has had 8.22 shots, scored 1.60 goals (0.2 of which are penalties), and assisted another 0.4 per 90 minutes in the Champions League this season.

In Real Madrid’s lopsided ‘BBC’ attack made up of the Portuguese star, Karim Benzema, and Gareth Bale, that’s over half of their total offensive output combined. Bale is the odd one out in Madrid’s forward line, one where the responsibilities shift out of possession – the world’s most expensive player tackles and intercepts around three times more than Benzema, and laughably over six times more than Ronaldo, who hasn’t won a tackle in Europe this season.

Compared to the egalitarian distribution of the attack of their Catalan counterparts, this is one with a clear susceptibility for over-reliance.

To be fair, unlike their opponents Manchester City and their respective idol Sergio Aguero, Ronaldo is almost always fit, and last night was a rare exception that went right down to the last fitness test. Despite the muscle problem that ruled him out of this match doing the same last weekend against Rayo Vallecano, Zinedine Zidane had said on Monday that their talisman was “100 percent” fit to play at the Etihad.

His shots were missing in the first half, though even off the pitch he wasn’t far off either of the team’s production in a surprisingly lifeless 45 minutes. Four shots, two for each team, were the limited spoils of a tentative opening where neither side looked to go for it unnecessarily quickly.

The only big thing to happen was David Silva being forced off with an injury, replaced by the on-form youngster Kelechi Iheanacho. The Spanish playmaker is a blunter creative force in Europe than in the Premier League, only assisting twice in the competition since 2012/13, but is nonetheless a vital cog in City’s offensive play, and has scored 0.31 goals per 90 in their run to the semi-final.

Real Madrid’s attack was dealt another blow when Benzema, also of questionable fitness after a weekend injury, was replaced by Jese for the beginning of the second half, one that continued as slowly as its predecessor. Until Bale hit the bar from a looping header in the 70^th minute, nothing much else had happened, and he came close again with a fine shot curling around the post shortly after.

Madrid pressure quickly began to build, driven by the only remaining Galactico in their attack, and contrasting harshly with City’s inability to get anything going in the attacking third. Joe Hart’s net came very close to bulging in the 81^st minute, when the ball dropped in between the penalty spot and the goalkeeper for Pepe to strike from a corner, a chance that goes in roughly 46% of the time according to a basic expected goals model (a measure of the quality of an opportunity based on historical trends).

With nearly the last kick of the game, Kevin De Bruyne almost troubled Keylor Navas from an optimistic free-kick, but in the end the affair ended goalless.

Any attempts by City to press in the match were rendered unsuccessful by a competent Madrid team in possession – of 15 tackle attempts made against them in their own half by the home team, only 4 were successful. The Spanish giants barely defended from the front, only attempting 5 tackles in City’s half altogether, happy to sit back and calmly absorb any offensive pressure.

“I would be happy after the game if I was a City player”, said Rio Ferdinand afterwards, and yet that they posed no real threat on their home turf may hang as an awkward ghost over them going into the second leg. This minor disadvantage will be exacerbated when they go to the Bernabeau with the probable return of Ronaldo and Benzema.

Manuel Pellegrini cannot look back at this match and think that his side had any real chance of winning. Indeed, according to Twitter user and analytics expert @11tegen11’s expected goals model, their measly total of 0.18 gave them an only 2% chance of winning based on simulating the quality of their chances; a draw occurred 16% of the time, and Madrid might be somewhat disappointed given their 82% chance of victory. Expected goals can be noisy at the single game level, but this ties in nicely with what was probably a missed opportunity for Real Madrid.

All things considered, Los Blancos are unlikely to complain, but Manchester City may come to rue not being more ambitious at the Etihad. With the deadly ‘BBC’ trio likely to be reunited in the second leg, and Madrid having not been pressured at all away from home without them, it may take a riskier strategy for Pellegrini’s men to have any chance of making the final.