Champions League Final tactical preview: Four key questions

Zinedine Zidane’s appointment has restored the classic tactical dichotomy of the Madrid derby: gritty Atletico will dig in and look to charge forward on the counter, whilst Real – with their glamorous, possession-centric 4-3-3 restored – will dominate the ball and probe more artfully for an opening.

Zidane’s only Madrid derby as manager ended in a 1-0 defeat at the Bernabeu, and given that Zezu’s side are still in a transitional phase a similar score-line is not unlikely. Ultimately, the Champions League final will be decided by Real Madrid’s ability to quickly organise into a coherent defensive shape when, after prolonged periods of territorial pressure, Atletico win the ball back and spring forward on the break. This is the first major test of Zidane’s tactical credentials.

1) Can Real transition into their 4-4-2 defensive formation quickly enough, or will Koke expose their lopsided shape?

Real are vulnerable to an incisive counter-attack. Zidane has reintroduced a possession based 4-3-3 that looks to control the tempo of the game via Luka Modric and Toni Kroos, and this in turn has allowed for the full-backs to drift high up the pitch and become involved in attacks (unlike under Rafa Benitez, when the counter-attacking system limited the impact of Danilo and Marcelo). Real Madrid have averaged 56.6% possession in the Champions League this season, with Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo playing as inside forwards – excelling now that overlapping full-backs are freeing them up slightly.

Unsurprisingly, this system leaves plenty of space on the flanks for the opponents. As in the 2-0 defeat to Wolfsburg earlier in the tournament (when Julian Draxler terrorised Danilo), Atletico will know how to pounce on this flaw. Zidane is highly likely to instruct his full-backs to play deeper than usual, but the 4-3-3 can leave those three midfielders too stretched to cover the entire width of the pitch.

As a result, when out of possession Real swing into a 4-4-2 shape that sees Bale attempt to track back into right midfield as the other three midfielders shift one place to the left. The key battle, then, will be between Bale and Koke; if Bale is over-committed then Koke – who drifts infield to become a dynamic left-centre midfielder – will presumably dominate this space and cut through the Real back four. This is the pocket of space that will be most crucial on Saturday.

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2) Will Ramos successfully stifle Griezmann as he drops off the front line?

A vital component of Ateltico’s counter-attacking system is Antoine Grezmann’s movement in front of the back four. He will frequently attempt to drop off the Real centre-backs and revel in spaces either side of Casemiro, looking to turn on the ball and act as the creative fulcrum (as he did successfully against Bayern Munich in the semi-final first leg).

Sergio Ramos is one of the best in the world at stepping forward to meet a second striker, and he will certainly hope to dominate aerially should Atletico play longer passes towards Griezmann. The biggest danger for Real is that Ramos, so often hot-headed in big games, presses too aggressively onto Griezmann and either concedes dangerous fouls or is turned by the nimble-footed Frenchman – which would leave a gaping hole in central defence for Fernando Torres to bend his run into. Griezmann is the main outlet that Atletico will be looking to find when countering quickly, particularly when they win the ball back in Real’s half. Much could rest on Ramos’s discipline and Griezmann’s ability to float into wider positions that allow him to break clear of the Spaniard whilst remaining in a creative position.

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3) Can Bale find space in-between the bodies of Atletico’s defensive shell?

One of the key features of Real’s semi-final second leg win was Gareth Bale’s movement from right to centre, which allowed him to pick up the ball in spaces that Fernandinho (pressing too high) and Kevin de Bruyne (unwilling to track back) did not cover. Although Atletico will be considerably more careful, there is no doubt that Bale’s ability to constantly shift positions will be the primary source of creativity for Zidane’s side.

Atletico form into a compressed 4-4-2 defensive shape when the ball enters their half, with the opposition back four left alone and the two Atleti strikers pressing onto the deeper central midfielders. The idea is to force the ball into harmless wide areas, to restrict space in the middle of the park in an ultra-narrow formation, and to close out gaps for the opposition to pass through. It is the most organised defence in world football (Atletico conceded just 18 league goals this season).

Real’s overlapping full-backs will be important in moving around this shell – as will Kroos’ ability to switch the play from flank to flank and thus stretch the bodies apart – but Real do not particularly enjoy playing on the touchline. With Ronaldo sticking religiously to the left flank and cutting inside with predictable diagonal runs (see below), Bale could be the unseen man that makes the difference.

It was his ability to ghost into pockets of space off the right flank that undid Man City, not least because his excellent passing range allows him to fire early balls into the penalty area. If Atletico can remain tight enough in this area to prevent Bale from finding space, they should be able to keep a clean sheet.

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4) Is Juanfran capable of winning his one-on-ones with Ronaldo?

Cristiano Ronaldo was surprisingly quiet in the match between these two sides in February, largely thanks to the sheer volume of bodies Atletico put behind the ball. On Saturday, Ronaldo will attempt to make his usual piercing diagonal runs on the ball and will expect to be a lot more successful.

Saul Niguez will often drop into the back line in order to tightly mark Ronaldo, but Real’s attacking strength means that there will be the occasional moment in which Juanfran is pulled out of his narrow full-back position and forced to track Ronaldo one-on-one. There is no doubt that this is the key individual battle; if Juanfran puts in a man-of-the-match performance then Atletico will expect to win the game, but if the Spaniard is anything less than perfect then Ronaldo could punish him.

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