While the college football season is still nearly two months away from kicking off, that doesn't mean there's a lack of action. In late May, BetMGM released college football win totals for the public to bet on. While a lot of people aren't in football mode yet, there are plenty of people that are. Early money has come in over the last few weeks, and as a result, some preseason win totals have already moved. Big-name programs like Alabama and Notre Dame are amongst those schools that have seen line movement in the early part of the summer.
Alabama now has highest win total in the country
When BetMGM originally posted their college win totals a month ago, four schools were tied for the highest projected win total. Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson all opened with an over/under of 10.5 wins. However, as the betting commenced, one school has risen to the top all by itself.
Alabama opened as a -200 favorite to go over 10.5 wins. Currently, they're a +110 underdog to go over 11.5 wins. Nick Saban's Crimson Tide are currently the only team in the country with a win total of 11.5.
Obviously, this is a massive line movement. With a win total of 10.5, you're afforded the luxury of one regular season loss and still being able to cash your over ticket. At the current win total of 11.5, you're basically betting on whether Alabama will go undefeated during the regular season or whether they'll lose a game prior to a potential SEC championship.
Last season, Alabama went 11-1 during the regular season, dropping a game to Texas A&M at Kyle Field. If that were to repeat itself this season, Alabama bettors who got in at over 10.5 wins would be cashing tickets, while over 11.5 win bettors would be ripping theirs up. Under Nick Saban in non-COVID shortened seasons, Alabama has finished the regular season with 12 wins four times, 11 wins seven times, 10 wins once, nine wins once and six wins once. In 2020, Alabama did go undefeated but that was just 10 regular season games.
Alabama is the current national title favorite at +200. The Crimson Tide are the favorites to win the SEC at -125. They're returning stars such as quarterback Bryce Young and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. from last season. They're arguably the best team in the country, but will they be able to run the table and go over 11.5 wins? History says despite their dynastic run, they usually get tripped up at least once.
Other win totals on the move
Alabama is not the only school to see their win total on the move in the early part of summer. Bettors are making their stance known about a few other big-name programs across the country.
Notre Dame opened as a +150 underdog to go over 9.5 wins, but the Irish's win total has come down to just 8.5 wins. Notre Dame opens the season in Columbus, where it'll be a significant underdog against Ohio State. Other tough challenges on the schedule include a home game against Clemson and a road game at USC. Even if the Fighting Irish drop all three of those games, they still have a path to reach nine wins as long as they don't get tripped up by a team like Boston College, BYU or North Carolina. Currently, Notre Dame is a -125 favorite to go over 8.5 wins.
As the offseason continues, these numbers will continue to change. If you like a number, it's better to bet it early to get ahead of the market. Here are some other notable moves across the Power Five conferences.
Alabama is the only school in the SEC to see their win total move off the number, but there has been some changes in the odds attached to the win totals for other teams.
LSU has gone from a -125 favorite to go over 7.5 wins to a +115 underdog to do so. Texas A&M is getting some love, as it is now -145 to go over 8.5 wins. They opened at -125.
Two Pac-12 schools have seen their win totals change in the early part of the summer. Oregon State went from a projected win total of 5.5 to a new total of 6.5 wins. The Beavers are currently +105 to go over 6.5 wins. Utah has seen its win total rise from 8.5 wins to 9 wins.
California opened as a +110 underdog to go over 5.5 wins, but now it's a -120 favorite to accomplish that. UCLA has gone from a -115 favorite to a -145 favorite to go over 8 wins. Washington State opened as +140 underdogs to go over 5.5 wins, but now it's down to just +105 underdogs to get there.
There has been some interesting movement in the Big 12, but the most notable movement might be the Texas Longhorns.
Texas opened as a -200 favorite to go over 8.5 wins, but now the Longhorns are just -125 favorites to go over that number. The implied probability based on those odds went from nearly 67% to just over 55%.
Iowa State has seen its projected win total drop from 7.5 wins to 6.5 wins. Oklahoma has also seen its win total drop a little, as it's gone from 9.5 wins to a flat nine. Conversely, Oklahoma State's win total went from 8 wins to 8.5.
Louisville is the biggest mover so far this offseason in the ACC. Its win total has gone from 5.5 wins up to 6.5 wins.
Duke's projected win total is down to just three wins after opening at 3.5. Florida State opened as a +105 underdog to go over 6.5 wins, but now the Seminoles are -130 favorites to get there. NC State has gone from -125 to -145 to go over 8.5 wins.
Virginia has seen some negative movement. The Cavaliers opened as -140 favorites to go over 7.5 wins, now they are +125 underdogs to get to at least eight wins.
There hasn't been much movement in the Big Ten.
Ohio State opened as a -200 favorite to go over 10.5 wins, but those odds are now down to just -175.
Maryland opened with a win total of 5.5 wins, but that's been bumped up to six wins.