College football betting: Will Army-Navy go under the total for a 17th straight year?

There's only one college football game on the schedule this weekend, and that's the historic and classic matchup between Army and Navy. The two service academies first met in 1890 and have met in every year since 1930. We're still a little over a week away from bowl season getting underway, so Army and Navy will have the spotlight to themselves. The standalone aspect of the game makes it likely that the game will get a lot of betting action. Based on recent history between these teams, there's one bet that comes to mind immediately.

Under has hit in 16 straight years

In 2006, the total for Army-Navy was set at 49 points. Navy picked up a 26-14 victory, cashing the under for bettors. That game was the start of an incredible streak, as the Army-Navy game has gone under the betting total in 16 straight years. If you bet $110 on the under in 2006 and rolled over your winnings every year since then, you would currently be up over $3.4 million.

Army-Navy is not the only matchup where this trend applies. Since 2005, the under in matchups between service academies (Army, Navy and Air Force) is 43-9-1. Ten consecutive matchups between service academies has gone under the total.

It makes sense. These teams almost never throw the ball, usually choosing to run it every play. That keeps the clock moving all game long. There's also less explosive plays, as most of those come through the passing attack. In addition, these teams practice against the triple option offense all season long, so they are more capable in stopping it.

Is the total too low?

The current total at BetMGM for this upcoming Saturday's matchup between Army and Navy is set at 32.5 points. That number is already down half a point from the opening number of 33.

The last two years, the total closed at 36 points. The teams combined for 15 points in 2020 and 30 points last season. Since 2006, the average closing total has been 47.8 points. That's over two touchdowns higher than the point total this season.

The Army-Navy game has gone under the total in 16 consecutive seasons, but if the total in all 16 games was 32.5 points, the over would actually be 9-7. This total is depleted because of recent history and the well known trend surrounding this game. It's the lowest total that we've seen in this game.

There's two ways to look at betting the total in this game. Of course, on one hand, you can't deny that the under has hit in 16 straight years. History is on the side of the under. Some people like riding streaks until they end. On the other hand, you can be contrarian. The over is going to have to hit in an Army-Navy game eventually, and this total is extremely low. A 20-14 score gets you home if you bet the over. You can't knock either thought process.

Of course, you can avoid the total and just bet the game. Navy is a 2.5-point favorite over Army.