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Emmys: Writing (Series) – Jesse Armstrong Eyes History; ‘The Bear’ Challenges ‘System’; Al Yankovic Takes on ‘Beef’

Clayton Davis
·4-min read

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

Succession -- Jeremy Strong - Sarah Snook - Kieran Culkin
Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook and Kieran Culkin from “Succession” (HBO)

Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 3, 2023): Official commentary coming soon.

The final Emmy voting rounds open on Aug. 17 at 9 a.m. PT and close on Aug. 28 at 10 p.m. PST.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.

2022 winner: “Succession” (HBO) — “All the Bells Say” by Jesse Armstrong

And the Nominees Are:

  1. “Succession” (HBO) — “Connor’s Wedding” by Jesse Armstrong

  2. “The Last of Us” (HBO) — “Long, Long Time” by Craig Mazin

  3. “Better Call Saul” (AMC) — “Saul Gone” by Peter Gould

  4. “Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+) — “The Prick” by Sharon Horgan, Dave Finkel, Brett Baer

  5. “The White Lotus” (HBO) — “Arrivederci” by Mike White

  6. “Andor” (Disney+) — “One Way Out” by Beau Willimon

  7. “Better Call Saul” (AMC) — “Point and Shoot” by Gordon Smith

2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 3, 2023): Official commentary coming soon.

The final Emmy voting rounds open on Aug. 17 at 9 a.m. PT and close on Aug. 28 at 10 p.m. PST.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.

2022 winner: “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — “Pilot” by Quinta Brunson

And the Nominees Are:

  1. “The Bear” (FX) — “System” by Christopher Storer

  2. “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) — “So Long, Farewell” by Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, Jason Sudeikis

  3. “Barry” (HBO) — “wow” by Bill Hader

  4. “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) — “I Know Who Did It” by John Hoffman, Matteo Borghese, Rob Turbovsky

  5. “Jury Duty” (Amazon Freevee) — Mekki Leeper

  6. “The Other Two” (HBO) — “Cary & Brooke Go to an AIDS Play” by Chris Kelly, Sarah Schneider

2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series or TV Movie

Beef - Ali Wong
Beef - Ali Wong

Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 3, 2023): Official commentary coming soon.

The final Emmy voting rounds open on Aug. 17 at 9 a.m. PT and close on Aug. 28 at 10 p.m. PST.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.

2022 winner: “The White Lotus” (HBO) — Mike White

And the Nominees Are:

  1. “Beef” (Netflix) — “The Birds Don’t Sing, They Screech in Pain” — Lee Sung Jin (written by)

  2. “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel) — Al Yankovic, Eric Appel (written by)

  3. “Fire Island” (Hulu) — Joel Kim Booster (written by)

  4. “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX) — “Me-Time” — Taffy Brodesser-Akner (written by)

  5. “Swarm” (Prime Video) — “Stung” Janine Nabers (teleplay by & story by), Donald Glover (story by)

  6. “Prey” (Hulu) — Patrick Aison (written by & story by), Dan Trachtenberg (story by)

Emmy Awards Predictions Categories

DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.

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