England have passed up on lucky draws under Gareth Southgate – now it is time to deliver

Not for the first time in England’s recent tournament history, Gareth Southgate and his players appear to have the luck of the draw.

The result of Georgia’s shock victory over Portugal is that England will play Slovakia in the last 16 of this summer’s European Championship, while many of the world’s best teams now find themselves in the other half of the knockout stages.

Slovakia’s Fifa world ranking of 45 means they are, statistically, the fourth-easiest opponent in the last 16 of Euro 2024 (Georgia, Slovenia and Romania are all ranked lower). England are ranked fifth in the world.

Southgate’s team are one of only two top-10 teams in their half of the draw, alongside the Netherlands. It is, without question, the less treacherous side to be in. In the other half, there are four teams in the top 10 of Fifa’s world rankings: Spain, Portugal, France and Belgium.

Such good fortune is not unfamiliar to England, who also enjoyed relatively straightforward fixtures on their route to the semi-finals of World Cup 2018 and the final of Euro 2020.

In each of those tournaments, England only came up against one top-10 team. They lost all three of those games — twice to Belgium in 2018, and then to Italy in the final of Euro 2020.

The only other time England have faced a top-10 team in a tournament under Southgate’s management was against France in 2022. They lost that game, too. (England did beat Germany at Wembley at Euro 2020, but Germany were ranked 12th in the world at the time).

In 2018, England’s opponents in the knockout stages were Colombia (ranked 16th), Sweden (24th) and Croatia (20th). Eventual winners France, by contrast, had to come through tricky ties against Argentina (5th), Uruguay (14th) and Belgium (3rd) to reach the final.

In other words, England’s path to the semi-final was, statistically speaking, almost three times easier than France’s route.

It was a similar story three years later. In 2021, England’s route to the final of the Euros brought them face to face with Germany (12th), Ukraine (24th) and Denmark (10th) before the final with Italy. In the other half of the draw, Italy had to beat Austria (23rd), Belgium (1st) and Spain (6th) to reach the final, which was held at Wembley.

The World Cup in 2022 was, it must be said, a different story. Of the eight teams who reached the quarter-finals, England’s fixtures were the second-most difficult on average, behind Morocco.

Southgate’s critics will understandably point out, though, that England fell at the first significant hurdle. France were the first team in the world’s top 15 that England came up against in Qatar, and they lost 2-1 in that quarter-final.

England’s record against top teams at international tournaments is not a good one. In major finals under Southgate, the highest-ranked team they have beaten away from the home comforts of Wembley are Colombia, in a penalty shoot-out, in 2018.

Of course, if England are to go all the way in Germany it will require breaking this run of disappointing results against the big boys of the international game. But, given their poor performances so far at this tournament, the twist of fate that placed them in the easier side of the draw will be most welcome.

It will rightly be regarded as a stroke of luck, once again, for England at a major tournament under Gareth Southgate. Now, unlike in previous tournaments, they must take full advantage of the favourable hand they have been dealt.