Why England are still bookmakers’ favourites to win Euro 2024 – even after woeful form

At least one section of the football landscape still believes in England and have not been swayed by the indifferent performances in the group stages or the hysterical reaction of the pundits thereafter.

For the bookmakers, very little has changed in the past fortnight.

They had Gareth Southgate’s men as the favourites before a ball was kicked and, despite England kicking only two balls into the net in 270 minutes, they continue to have the seemingly faltering side at the head of their betting markets.

Of course, the armchair ‘experts’ are sure they know the reason for this big anomaly between those who paid to say what they think – Gary Lineker and co – and those who are paid to be correct in what they think – the oddsmakers.

The prevailing wisdom in the pubs and on social media is that it is simply the weight of money placed on England in the homeland that is ensuring their seemingly bizarre status above Spain, German and even Austria on the gambling coupons and screens. But Chris Wood, a senior trader at Ladbrokes, summarily dismisses this urban myth.

“Obviously, when pricing a market like this up you take liabilities into account and we would not be a standout price about something we had already built up a large liability on – but that’s not the case here,” Wood tells Telegraph Sport. “England are currently a loser for us but are not our biggest liability, although this would obviously change by the time they potentially reach the final.“

Wood and the other traders must look at the scenario dispassionately, and in a rational manner without the frenzied emotion produced amid all that “coming home” hoo-ha, and the resulting logic will surely give hope to fans who have all but given up on the Kane gang.

“There are a number of factors that have led to England still being favourites to win the Euros,” Wood explains. “No one can possibly argue that the opening three performances have been good [although you can potentially argue the Serbia and Slovenia ones were not necessarily as bad as people have made out] but the underlying ability of the team remains broadly constant.

“Three matches is an exceptionally small sample size and England could well fire again, particularly in the knockout stages against potentially more attacking teams where they will presumably have a bit more space to function.

“Critics of Southgate would obviously point out that performances have been bad for way more than the last three games but any adjustments made to anyone’s original assessment of their ability has to be fairly minimal in the middle of a tournament.”

And yes, even while in Germany, please do mention the draw. If England had expected to be facing a country like Slovakia in Sunday’s first knockout stage, then with the four powerhouses of Spain, German, France and Portugal all out of the prospective picture until Sunday 14 July, the pathway has opened up more than Southgate could possibly have ever dreamt.

“England have been given a very favourable draw after France failed to win their group,” Wood points out. “They will be favourites for every potential match they play until the final, the outright price simply reflects this.

“But sometimes teams simply have a bad run of performances. Italy won the Euros and then immediately failed to qualify for the World Cup, France and Italy were in the final of the 2006 World Cup and were then knocked out in the group stages of the next one.

“It obviously feels unlikely after the last three games but England have some very good players who could suddenly begin turning it on. If the outright odds were based purely on tournament performances Spain and Austria would be miles clear.”

But maybe it would be better if the guys with the satchels did not deal in facts and facts alone. After all, Southgate declared after the Slovenia shambles – on the back of the Denmark debacle and before the Serbia strife – that his lads were struggling with the favourite tag.

In the name of patriotism, therefore, should not the English bookmakers place the national team among the outsiders? Sorry, Gareth, rather like podcasts chasing clicks, bookmaking does not work like that.