Everton’s 10-point penalty could not have come at a better time

Everton were in shock after the Premier League handed down their 10-point penalty for breaching financial rules, and in many seasons would now be staring at relegation from the top flight for the first time since 1951 when they slipped into the old Second Division.

The immediate sanction drops them into the relegation zone, with only Burnley’s inferior goal difference separating them from the foot of the table.

With 26 games remaining, however, all hope is not lost at Goodison Park. If there was one season to be hit with a points penalty, it would be the current campaign. Here are the key factors why Everton may avoid relegation to the Championship.

The Dyche effect

Everton have the right manager in place for a battle against relegation, with Sean Dyche working miracles at Burnley on a budget to get them in the Premier League and suffered relegation once during his six full campaigns in the top flight. He put together teams who were disciplined and well-drilled in defence but still had the ability to score goals to keep their heads above water.

Dyche will not be fazed by the challenge of climbing out of the relegation zone. He has suffered poor starts at Burnley before, notably when his squad had to juggle European football with the Premier League. His teams are balanced and he has power in his midfield – Abdoulaye Doucouré and Amadou Onana gives them a chance to take control of matches.

After taking one point from their first five Premier League games of the season Everton have accrued 13 from their last seven. Maintaining even half that form should be enough to keep them up.

Relegation rivals lack quality

The gulf between the teams at the bottom of the table and the rest of the Premier League is such that football agents are not expecting much money to be spent in January. There will be trading for loan players and bargains, but there is no sense of panic yet from mid-table teams needing something extra in their squad when the market opens in six weeks.

Last season, the relegation fight looked like it would involve most of the teams in the bottom half of the table, with a bad run of results seeing clubs sucked into the bottom. On the final day, 19th-placed Leeds United still had a chance of survival if results went their way.

This time around, the three clubs promoted from the Championship have only recorded one victory each with almost a third of the season gone. Sheffield United have played well without winning until beating Wolves two weeks ago, while Burnley’s only win was against Luton Town.

Without a drastic turn in fortunes, it looks as though the promoted clubs this season have given Everton an excellent chance of staying up despite their 10-point deduction.

The stats show improvement

Luton may have recorded a win at Goodison Park, but in general the stats show that Everton are improving this season under Dyche. During their struggles in the last two seasons, their stats were down compared to this campaign at the 12-game mark.

Dyche’s team are getting more shots away (167), which gives them a better chance of picking up points. They also have a better xG and expected goals against. With Jarrad Branthwaite and James Tarkowski at the heart of their defence, teams are getting fewer shots on goal at Jordan Pickford.

What if this had happened two seasons ago ..?

Two seasons ago they were invading the pitch and dancing in the aisles of Goodison Park when safety was secured against Crystal Palace three days before the end of the season. Relegation to the Championship was a genuine possibility when Palace went into half-time 2-0 up, only for Frank Lampard’s team to mount an astonishing comeback, with the manager calling it one of the greatest nights of his career.

Despite the jubilation, Everton had their worst seasons for 18 years by finishing in 16th place with 39 points. The loss of 10 points that season would have sent them down and Burnley would have stayed up. They never wanted to be in that position again but last season Everton finished 17th, only surviving on the final day thanks to Doucouré’s winner against Bournemouth. Incurring a 10-point punishment would have seen them relegated with Leicester City staying up.

Goodison Park factor

Everton are expected to leave their famous stadium, which opened in 1892, and leave for their new Bramley-Moore Dock ground next year. As those survival wins against Palace and Bournemouth showed, the atmosphere at Goodison can galvanise a team scrapping for survival. They will not want to be bidding farewell to their old ground with relegation.