“Fighting ‘til the end” won’t be enough for Manchester City this time

Manchester City have ten games left to play in the Premier League this season. They sit in fourth place, ten points behind leaders Leicester City, though the Blues have a game in hand. Given that you can now count the matches remaining on your fingers, we can probably say this period is officially the title run-in.

There are still some pundits predicting that City will go on to win the league which, given the evidence they have available, doesn’t exactly seem like a rational call.

Some supporters are maintaining an optimistic outlook too. It seems to stem from the fact that City have twice won the league from unlikely positions. Is that really enough to lead to a happy outcome for the Blues at the end of the season?

“We’ve been here before”

City won the league in 2012 and 2014. On both occasions, they came back from perilous situations to claim the title. In 2012, Roberto Mancini’s side suffered a 1-0 loss at Arsenal that left them eight points behind leaders Manchester United with just six games to play. Against all odds, they then embarked on a perfect run that saw pick up maximum points from those final half-a-dozen fixtures and United famously choked. It was a similar scenario in 2014 as City overhauled Liverpool at the death to take the crown.

Predictably, some supporters are clinging to that trite, hashtag-spawning mantra that City “fight ‘til the end” and are in familiar territory. Vincent Kompany spoke of it being “hunting season” for his team, before they were unceremoniously beaten 3-0 by Liverpool.

It is an undeniable fact that the Blues have experience of coming back from the dead to win the league, and I concede that I can see why some would think that bodes well for the season finale.

Except, we’ve not really been here before…

…and, actually, when City have been in comparable situations, it hasn’t ended well. It takes a particularly selective memory to only recall the never-say-die successes. The title challenges of 2013 and 2015 bear more resemblance to this current attempt. On those occasions, the Blues had spent significant chunks of the season a long way behind the leaders – gaps that proved insurmountable.

To catch Leicester, City need The Foxes to slip up three times whilst retaining a perfect record themselves. Given that Pellegrini’s men haven’t won back-to-back league games since October, it seems a touch fanciful to expect ten straight wins now. Consider also that City have failed to beat any of the current top eight sides despite 11 attempts, yet still have three of those eight teams to play again and you really start to wonder what basis there is for any optimism.

The main reason I say that City haven’t really been here before is that they’re not just waiting on Leicester to slip up.

There isn’t just one team to overhaul

This is crucial. In 2012 and 2014 there was only one team City had to leapfrog. As unlikely as it seemed at the time that we would see the leaders collapse, it wasn’t exactly unthinkable that one team could hit a bad patch.This time it’s different. Leicester sit top of the pile, but Arsenal and Tottenham are also ahead of City, by two points and five points respectively. It is entirely feasible that we will see Kompany and his men hunt down one of them, maybe even two, but three seems a bridge too far at this point.

Some punters are banking on the idea that for Leicester and Tottenham, their inexperience at this stage will come in to play and the pressure will throw them off their stride. The fact is, though, (and sorry for stating the blindingly obvious) that everybody who has ever won the league has had to do it for the first time at one point. Every Champion there has ever been, in any sport, has had to deal with that pressure as they approach the finish line. It is entirely possible that either of those sides will be fatally impacted by the pressure, but what actual evidence is there to say they will? There is literally none.

So it doesn’t look good!

If Manchester City win the league from here, it would be the most unlikely of their recent triumphs. Months of underperformance do not lead one to the natural conclusion that they will come off favourably in the final reckoning.

With a huge gap to overcome, a terrible run of form to address and a knack for falling short against half-decent opposition, fighting ‘til the end just won’t cut it this time.