Why finishing second might be better for Gareth Southgate and England

“We’ve not won a knockout game since 2006. Why we are starting to plot which would be a better venue for our semi-final is beyond me.”

Gareth Southgate quickly batted down suggestions that England might want to finish second in Group G so their potential path to the semi-final or final of the World Cup was easier.

He wants to beat Belgium and carry on building the momentum that is propelling his young side.

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But while he may not be interested in it, a quick look at the potential routes and you can see why many fans and pundits are suggesting first is not the best.

If England finish top

The round of 16 game will either be against Colombia, Senegal or Japan – the same scenario as if they came second. Those three teams will find out their fate in the 3pm kick-offs.

After that, it begins to look a little difficult.

The quarter-final would be against either Brazil or Mexico. The Selecao have taken seven points from three games and were comfortable against Serbia, even without Neymar firing. Mexico, meanwhile produced one of the best performances of the tournament against Germany, but were hammered 3-0 by Sweden in their last fixture.

If the Three Lions got that far, the semi-final will be tough, whoever gets there. One of France, Argentina, Uruguay and Portugal will stand in their way.

An incredibly difficult half of the draw and not necessarily a reward for winning the group.

If England finish second

If England lose tonight, or draw and end up finishing behind Belgium due to fair play, the round of 16 game will be similar. One of Japan, Senegal and Colombia will finish second and be the opponents.

Should England navigate their way through that game, either Sweden or Switzerland will play them in the quarter-finals. Sweden did finish top of a very tough group and Switzerland have shown plenty of heart against Brazil and Serbia, but England would fancy their chances.

And if they did make it to the semi-finals having come second in the group, Spain, Russia, Croatia or Denmark would play England in the semi-finals. Croatia or Spain seems most likely, but the Spanish limped their way through the group stages and while Croatia have been impressive, they choked in the Euro 2016 knockout stages.

It certainly looks like the easier half of the draw – but we said that at Euro 2016 when England drew Iceland and we all know how that ended up…