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Predicting the beautiful game can be a fool’s errand, but fortune favors the bold. As the Bundesliga season continues, Yahoo Soccer has run the stats and analyzed the form books for its biggest games this weekend …
Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET, FS1
Few clubs made a bigger impression upon the Bundesliga’s return than Borussia Dortmund. Despite the absence of their rousing partisan home support, and several key players, Lucien Favre’s side stormed to a 4-0 win over local rivals Schalke, showing the kind of intensity that may not have been expected after a two-month hiatus.
Dortmund are likely to keep the title race competitive: They sit four points behind leaders Bayern Munich, and they boast the league’s deepest squad.
Wolfsburg, meanwhile, sit in sixth place and will be looking to put distance between themselves and the pack chasing Europa League qualification. Die Wolfe also came back with a victory last weekend, courtesy of a 91st-minute winner from Daniel Ginczek at Augsburg.
But in spite of being the hosts and undefeated in their last seven league matches, USMNT defender John Brooks and Wolfsburg are a long shot.
BVB are strong favorites with the bookmakers (-143 for the win at BetMGM) and they dominate the recent head-to-head matchups. They have won eight of the last nine league meetings and Wolfsburg have failed to score in any of the last six meetings.
Dortmund certainly seem to enjoy their visits to the home of Volkswagen, winning each of their last four trips, scoring 11 times in the process.
A trouble-free win for the away team seems to be the winning ticket here.
Prediction: Wolfsburg 0-3 Borussia Dortmund
Best Bet: Dortmund to win and over 2.5 goals (+130 on BetMGM). Nine of the last 10 meetings between these sides at Volkswagen Arena have featured three or more goals.
Bayern Munich vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, FS1
Bayern Munich’s quest for an eighth successive title continued last weekend, when they barely needed to get out of second gear to earn a 2-0 win at Union Berlin.
The Bavarians will face a similar standard of opponent this weekend when they welcome Eintracht Frankfurt to the cavernous confines of an empty Allianz Arena.
This game, however, might not be a complete walkover. When they met in November, Frankfurt inflicted an embarrassing 5-1 defeat on the champions elect, which cost manager Niko Kovac his job a few days later.
Under Hansi Flick, however, Bayern are a different beast. They have scored 50 goals in 16 league games under Flick, while talisman Robert Lewandowski notched his 26th goal of the season last weekend.
Accordingly, Frankfurt are priced at an incredibly long +1350 for the win at BetMGM. Evidently, the bookmakers have little faith that Adi Hütter’s side will replicate their shock victory from earlier this season. Prior to that match, Bayern had won all five of their most recent league encounters.
Prediction: Bayern Munich 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Best Bet: A Bayern win seems inevitable, but there is value in backing Frankfurt to score. In addition to the aforementioned 5-1 victory, they have scored in their last two visits to the Allianz Arena, where Bayern have also conceded to the likes of Paderborn and Werder Bremen this season. A Bayern win with both teams to score is +125 on BetMGM.
Schalke vs. Augsburg
Sunday, 7:30 a.m. ET, FS1
USMNT fans will need to be early risers to catch a glimpse of Weston McKennie this weekend, whose Schalke side host Augsburg.
The Royal Blues received a 4-0 humbling at the hands of Dortmund last weekend, and are winless in their last eight league games. In those games, they scored only twice and conceded 19. Yikes.
Augsburg, meanwhile, are hovering four points above the relegation zone, having suffered their fourth consecutive league defeat at the hands of Wolfsburg last weekend. Coach Heiko Herrlich missed that match after breaking isolation protocols to go and buy toothpaste. He will return for this game, but will he have anything to smile about?
In a battle between two of the league’s worst form sides, the bookies give hosts Schalke the edge, at +100 on BetMGM. Augsburg haven’t won at the Veltins Arena in the last decade and they haven’t won on the road since December. The folks at Oddschecker note that only 1% of bets on this match have favored the visitors.
However, there is much better value in the draw. Two of the last three meetings were stalemates, and the other match was a deadlock before a brilliant late solo effort from young Schalke midfielder Amine Harit.
Prediction: Schalke 1-1 Augsburg
Best Bet: Draw and both teams to score (+350 on BetMGM). Both teams have scored in four of their last five meetings, and neither defense looks capable of maintaining a clean sheet at the moment.
Mainz vs. RB Leipzig
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, FS1
RB Leipzig slipped into fourth place in the table last weekend with an underwhelming score-draw at home to Freiburg. The East German side are technically still in the title race, but their claim has gradually diminished in recent match days, with only two wins in their last seven outings.
If Julian Nagelsmann’s side could choose to face any team to turn their fortunes around, it might be Mainz, whom they defeated 8-0 to go top of the league back in November. Leipzig hold a 4-1-2 record in the series.
One thing is for certain: This game will have goals. Mainz have only failed to score twice in their last 11 matches, and there have been an incredible 19 goals in the last three matches between these sides. Accordingly, a 0-0 draw is priced at a very long +1050 on BetMGM.
Leipzig had 22 shots on goal against Freiburg, and although Emil Forsberg is unlikely to be fit again, they should have the firepower to get back to winning ways.
Prediction: Mainz 2-4 RB Leipzig
Best Bet: RB Leipzig to win and both teams to score is a safe bet at +155 on BetMGM, but the cavalier should back over 4.5 total goals at +250. The last three meetings between these teams have produced over 4.5 goals and Leipzig have scored at least three times in 14 league matches this season.
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