Four Verts: Patriots in prime position to lock in QB for their reboot, and Lions are trending in wrong direction

There's one month left of the 2023 NFL regular season. Teams are who they are at this point, and now it’s time to determine how serious their flaws are as the postseason projections begin and clubs prepare for 2024. Before we dive into a verifiably good team that’s starting to show it might not be exactly where it needs to be yet (ahem, Detroit), let's check in on the tumult over a much-talked about report involving the New England Patriots' Bill Belichick and what it might mean for the NFL Draft.

This QB class could accelerate Patriots' post-Bill Belichick reboot — as well as other teams'

Quarterbacks, quarterbacks, quarterbacks. It's the position that makes the world go round. The beauty of the late part of the season is that it’s impossible to hide from what has been produced the past three months. And what has been produced by the Patriots this season has been terrible. New England seems all but done with Mac Jones, and Bailey Zappe certainly isn’t the answer.

Now, there's a report from NBC Sports Boston's Tom Curran that New England team owner Robert Kraft has already made the decision to move on from head coach Bill Belichick after this season. If that's the case, then the Patriots, who currently own the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, could be in position to secure a big piece of their reboot come April.

This class has two bona fide franchise quarterbacks in USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye, with intriguing options such as Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and Washington star Michael Penix Jr. as consolation prizes.

The Patriots have a ton of work to do to improve the overall quality of their roster, but they could become a more attractive destination for their next head coach — again, if they do, in fact, move on from Belichick — if they're in position to select Williams or Maye and lock in the sport's most important position.

Quarterback issues tend to be the most glaring because they normally define what is possible for an offense in any given season. It’s easy to spot when a quarterback is being let down by his surrounding talent or is an anchor on an otherwise quality team — especially with four games left in the regular season. The Patriots need to be real with themselves about how dire their situation is heading into the offseason.

The position is going through a transition leaguewide right now, too, making it difficult for teams to find meaningful upgrades due to a lack of options. A handful of other teams should, at the very least, consider drafting a guy or making a play to move up for one.

Just draft a quarterback, man: Bears, Raiders

This one is easy. The Bears own the Panthers’ first-round draft pick, which seems all but a lock to be the first overall pick next year. Moving on from Justin Fields after how he has played this year would sting, but it would also be beneficial to restart the rookie contract timer while getting value for Fields in a trade.

The Raiders are in a similar boat as far as their talent goes, but they’re a few picks away from the top of the draft as things currently stand. A trade up or taking another quarterback with their high first-round pick has to be what they'll do as they hire yet another head coach.

Should consider drafting a quarterback: Commanders, Titans, Falcons, Saints, Buccaneers, Steelers

Now, just about every single one of these teams could stand to upgrade their QB talent, but either it might be too expensive to trade up or they can stand pat for a year and wait it out. The Titans and Commanders might want to see what Will Levis and Sam Howell have in store for 2024. Desmond Ridder could find himself in the same boat with the Falcons if he closes out the season with a bang, but they’re also clearly at a point where they’re underachieving based on the amount of talent they have on offense.

The Steelers should move heaven and earth to get a competent quarterback under center. They could make a real play toward the top of the AFC North in 2024 if they don’t get complacent with the combo of Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky.

New Orleans certainly needs to move on from Derek Carr, but his contract and the team's salary-cap situation will probably prevent that. Still, the Saints should play around with the idea of getting a quarterback in the draft because they need an upgrade if they’re going to compete in the near future as they figure out what the rest of the roster will look like because the bill has come due for all their years of restructuring contracts.

Priced out: Giants, Jets

Based on where they’re drafting or projected to be drafting, the Giants and Jets taking quarterbacks makes sense. Aaron Rodgers is a short-term play for the Jets, and Daniel Jones probably should be a short-term play for the Giants. However, both quarterbacks are too expensive to move on from, and it’s not unreasonable to expect these teams to bounce back in 2024 based on the cores they've built. They’re in better shape than the Saints, so they can pass here and take another elite talent.

Lions need their good team to come back

Two things can be true at the same time. The 2023 Detroit Lions are easily the best Lions team since the peak days of Matthew Stafford throwing to Calvin Johnson, and they’ve run into a wall that has caused people to pump the brakes on this version of the team. Jared Goff has struggled for much of the past month, and Detroit's defense has devolved into one of the worst units in the league. At 9-4 with a strong core that’s going to be around for a long time, this might feel like nitpicking, but that’s the curse of competence. Getting to the level of the championship contenders is the next step for the Lions, but it appears they’re not quite there yet.

To be fair, they’ve suffered tough injuries this season. Offensive lineman Halapoulivaati Vaitai, cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and linebacker James Houston have all missed extended time this season, and all four were going to be huge pieces of Detroit's success in some form. Still, there’s enough left in the cupboard for Detroit to fare better than it has over the past month. The overall strength of the offense has allowed it to score in most of these games, but the defense has been cut through by everyone, including Derek Carr and the Saints.

Goff’s season has hit a snag as well, starting discussions about how much money the Lions should pay him when his contract comes due for an extension next offseason. Goff is a quality quarterback who can put up monstrous numbers in the right circumstances, but he has had moments that serve as a harsh reminder that he has just about hit his ceiling as an NFL player. He isn't going to be the guy who can stand tall through adverse situations, which is fine — there are only a handful of those guys in the league at any given time.

Sunday against the Bears was a perfect example of that. Star center Frank Ragnow missed the game due to a knee injury, and Penei Sewell had an uncharacteristically sloppy day. The result was four sacks on Goff, nine quarterback hits and a whopping 19 pressures by the Bears’ defensive line, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. That’s not a great situation for any quarterback, and that specific environment accentuates Goff's flaws. The Lions struggled blocking, and in turn, Goff took a backseat to a vastly improved Bears defense.

If Goff has a game in which he struggles, things can get spooky for Detroit in a hurry because of the state of its defense. The Lions gave up far too many explosive plays to the Bears on Sunday, and that theme was mirrored in their games against the Packers, Saints and Chargers. That’s a serious concern whenever the playoffs start and the Lions eventually have to go against the Eagles, Cowboys and/or 49ers. They’re putting too much on their quarterback’s plate, and they need to find a way to alleviate that pressure in a hurry.

The sky is not falling. The Lions are still set to be an NFC player for years to come, but the 2023 Lions are trending in the wrong direction at the worst possible time.

Chicago has done a 180 on the season

There might not be a team that has made more progress this season than the Bears. In the first few weeks of the season, the Bears’ defensive coordinator resigned, their defense was getting punked every week, Justin Fields had to answer questions about the coaching he was receiving, and Ryan Poles did something most general managers never do: hold an early season news conference. Their season seemed destined for unmitigated failure, with Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus on the hot seat through the first half.

Now the tune has changed, with the Bears becoming a formidable team as the final month of the season approaches. The defense might've gone through the biggest turnaround of any aspect of the team. According to RBSDM.com, the Bears ranked 30th in expected points added per play on defense (0.067) through the first eight weeks of the season. Then Chicago acquired Montez Sweat, its pricey free-agent acquisitions at linebacker started playing better, and it has been one of the toughest defenses to play since then. Since Week 9, the Bears are sixth in expected points added per play (-0.126) and 13th in success rate (41.1%).

In their most recent game against the Lions, they made life hell for what has been one of the better offenses in the league the past two seasons. As a former defensive coordinator, Eberflus needed this swing in performance to keep his job, and the Bears have been so good recently that it would be surprising if he loses his job. The turnaround has been that stark, and they’ve built some serious momentum in multiple ways going into the 2024 offseason.

Now that the defense gives the Bears a chance to stay in games, the attention has turned to Fields, who is really starting to grow into a quality quarterback. Since his Week 4 breakout game against the Broncos, Fields ranks 10th in expected points added per play (0.122). The athleticism is still tantalizing, and now he’s achieving a level of consistency that has breathed new life into his NFL career. It's up in the air whether the Bears keep him, given that they have the first overall draft pick from the Panthers that would allow them to reset their quarterback contract timer. (And I argued above that they should trade him.) But the way Fields is playing, there will be a handful of teams at least reaching out to see what it would take to get him in the offseason. It’s a matter of circumstance, not performance, that might lead Fields to another team.

The Bears are in a rare, great spot for their franchise. They have a ton of asset value waiting to be unleashed with Fields and the likely first pick in next year’s draft. The offensive line has improved, the defense is playing at a near-elite level, and it’s looking like the vision that Poles and Eberflus share is finally coming together. It's an incredible place for this team, considering where the season started.

Rams have makeup of a playoff spoiler

The Rams have this thing moving back in the right direction after a tough, injury-filled 2022 season. Matthew Stafford is healthy, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua feel like a damn near unguardable wide receiver duo, Aaron Donald is still playing at a high level, and head coach Sean McVay has found the next phase of what his offense will look like. They probably don’t have the overall talent needed to win a Super Bowl or go on a run this season, but as the Ravens saw Sunday, this Rams team won’t be a walk in the park if they make the playoffs.

This team had a clear roster-building strategy beyond acquiring all the elite talent they can possibly afford. Most of the players from their peak run are gone to other teams or retirement, but the holdovers continue to give that top-heavy approach some merit. Stafford just played the game of his life Sunday in the Rams' loss to the Ravens, making several throws that would have people turning off their gaming consoles if it happened in Madden. It didn’t matter if the throw was to the middle of the field, down the sideline, corner of the end zone, draped in coverage — Stafford was finding space to fit it in.

That kind of precision paired with the talents of Kupp and Nacua gives the Rams a passing game that can ignite any week. They have scored 30 points in each of their past three games, including games against the Browns and Ravens, the two best defenses in football this season. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Stafford ranks fifth in expected points added per dropback (0.17) among 31 quarterbacks with at least 50 passing attempts since the start of Week 12. He has thrown 10 touchdowns to just one interception in that time. Any worry about his career being in trouble after his elbow injury last season should be over. He’s balling right now.

Having that kind of talent at the top of the roster gives the Rams a fighting chance against any team, but they’ve done a good job of identifying rosterable talent with their diminished draft assets in recent years as well. Nacua, offensive lineman Steve Avila and edge rusher Byron Young have all been fantastic pickups for the Rams from the 2023 draft. Kyren Williams has developed into a workhorse back in his second NFL season, and Tutu Atwell is another non-first-rounder who has allowed the Rams to stay competitive without the premium pick.

The Rams are currently the eighth seed in the NFC playoff race, behind the Packers (who own the head-to-head tiebreaker over them from a game Stafford missed), but if they can have enough breaks fall their way over the final month of the season, it’ll be fascinating to see what they can accomplish. Of course, that means they’re likely to face Dallas, Philadelphia, San Francisco or Detroit in the wild-card round, but that shouldn’t be seen as an automatic dub with the way the Rams look right now.

McVay has done a fantastic job getting this team back into working order, and they look like a team no contender wants to see in the early part of the playoffs.