Grand National meeting day one: trainers’ title on the line at Aintree

The three-way struggle to claim the National Hunt trainers’ championship will provide a race-by-race narrative to the Grand National meeting at Aintree, as Paul Nicholls attempts to win a record-equalling 15th title while Dan Skelton and Willie Mullins aim for their first.

There are 20 races worth £100,000 or more still to be staged in Britain before the end of April, and 15 of those will be run over the next three days at Aintree. The fifteenth, of course, is the £1m Grand National on Saturday, but the three title contenders have 43 declared runners over the first two days alone, including more than a dozen that are likely to be the first or second pick in the betting.

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Nicholls, who needs one more championship to match Martin Pipe’s all-time record, is currently odds-on for the title at a top price of 4-7. The reigning champion had won £2.57m in prize money before racing on Wednesday, only £30k behind Skelton, his former assistant, on £2.6m, with Mullins more than £500k adrift on £1.91m.

It is a significant gap back to third place, but the two rivals for Nicholls’s crown are both top-priced at 4-1 for the title, in part because Mullins – who had as many winners at the Cheltenham Festival as all British-based trainers combined – has three of the current top five in the betting for the Grand National.

Thursday’s opening race, the Grade One Manifesto Novice Chase, is likely to give one of the title contenders some early momentum, as Skelton saddles Grey Dawning, the favourite, with Ginny’s Destiny (Nicholls) and It Etait Temps (Mullins) next in the betting. Mullins, meanwhile, has Il Etait Temps, the second-favourite, in the £250,000 Aintree Hurdle, while Nicholls’s Bravemansgame is the only runner for one of the title-chasers in the £250,000 William Hill Bowl.

The opening day should also reveal whether Nicky Henderson’s string has shaken off the malaise that left him winnerless at Cheltenham last month. Shishkin, who was a late scratch from the Gold Cup at the Festival, is second-favourite for the Bowl behind Gerri Colomble, the Gold Cup runner-up, while Sir Gino, who was taken out of the Triumph Hurdle, is odds-on for the 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle.

“Rather like before Cheltenham we’ve kept testing them and just like then, everything is fine,” Henderson said on Wednesday. “That’s the only worry really. It keeps telling us everything is fine.

“The horses seem really well in themselves, the last work has all been done, they seem bright and perky and we’re looking forward to it.”

Gerri a super bet in the Bowl

Horses that had been finished in the first three in a Grade One at Cheltenham in March had a strike-rate of 42.9% in the top-level events at Aintree in 2023, when there was a four-week gap between the two Festivals for the first time since 2018.

That was a noticeable jump from the average of 23% over the previous three years when both meetings took place, and adds to the confidence behind Gerri Colombe (2.55), the Gold Cup runner-up, ahead of Thursday’s Grade One William Hill Bowl.

Gordon Elliott’s chaser took the Mildmay Novice Chase at Aintree last season, 29 days after finishing a close second in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham, and has had 27 days to recover from his Gold Cup exertions this time around.

That was a new career-best performance by Gerri Colombe, who finished nearly 10 lengths in front of Corach Rambler, the Grand National favourite, and while Shishkin, last year’s Bowl winner, would be a tough opponent at his very best, his overall form this season is less than encouraging in what looks like a significantly stronger renewal.

Aintree 2.20 Sir Gino would have been a hot favourite for the Triumph Hurdle last month and will head the market here too, but Kargese ran a fine race in defeat at Cheltenham and her 7lb allowance could put her right in the mix.

Aintree 3.30 Impaire Et Passe was no match for his stable companion State Man, the new champion over timber, on his last two starts but should find this field, and the step back up in trip, more to his liking.

Aintree 4.05 The first race of the week over the National fences, with heavy ground adding to the uncertainty, but Paul Nicholls’s Cap Du Mathan catches the eye at around 20-1 with the champion trainer’s daughter, Olive, taking the ride.

Aintree 4.40 Path D’Oroux has an obvious chance to further improve Irish trainer Gavin Cromwell’s 20% strike-rate in British handicaps.