Here's why I'm picking Alabama to upset No. 1 seed North Carolina in Sweet 16

Offense wins the day.

This one has the potential to be a back-and-forth, high-scoring game, but I trust the Alabama offense more in this one after the disappointing performance in the second round against Grand Canyon.

Two key points of the game will be 3-pointers and rebounds. While North Carolina is among the best teams in rebounding, Alabama isn’t that far behind, and it has several players who can go up and get the ball. On the 3-pointer side, Alabama can score at-will, and North Carolina didn’t have a majority of its outside shots going in when it lost this season.

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The Crimson Tide can open this game up similar to how Michigan State did against North Carolina, coming out of the gates hot to take an early lead. The only difference is that Alabama can sustain its scoring to give the Tide a sizable lead that will make it difficult to keep up for North Carolina. Expect the Tar Heels to eventually make a run, but like in most of North Carolina’s losses this season, the second-half performance won’t result in a win.

Alabama is the nation’s best scoring team in the second half at 47.1 points per game.

Expect Mark Sears to come up big in making 3-pointers for Alabama to send the Crimson Tide to the Elite Eight, and the first No. 1 seed to be eliminated from the NCAA Tournament.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness upset pick: Why Alabama beats North Carolina in Sweet 16